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Journal Articles

Simple Model for Calculating Ballistic Missile Defense Effectiveness, A

Dean Wilkening
Science and Global Security, 2000 December 31, 2000

This paper develops a probabilistic model that can be used to determine the technical performance required for a defense to meet specific political/military objectives. The defense objective is stated as a certain probability that no warheads leak through the defense. The technical performance is captured by the interceptor single-shot probability of kill and the warhead detection, tracking, and classification probability. Attacks are characterized by the number of warheads and undiscriminated decoys.

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Books

Russia's Second Chechen War: Ten Assumptions in Search of a Policy

Gail Lapidus
The Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Stockholm), 2000 December 31, 2000

The military campaign unleashed in Chechnya in September 1999 was portrayed by the Russian leadership as a limited and carefully targeted counter-terrorist operation aimed at eliminating the threat to Russia posed by "international terrorism." In a 14 November article in the New York Times, then Prime Minister Putin sought to deflect American criticism of Russian actions and to win acquiescence, if not sympathy, by likening Russias effort in Chechnya to U.S. anti-terrorist actions.

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Books

Origins of Military Doctrines and Command and Control Systems; and Conclusions: Planning the Unthinkable, The

Scott D. Sagan, Peter R. Lavoy, Lewis A. Dunn
Cornell University Press in "Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons", 2000 December 31, 2000

The proliferation of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons is now the single most serious security concern for governments around the world. Peter R. Lavoy, Scott D. Sagan, and James J. Wirtz compare how military threats, strategic cultures, and organizations shape the way leaders intend to employ these armaments. They reveal the many frightening ways that emerging military powers and terrorist groups are planning the unthinkable by preparing to use chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in future conflicts.

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Working Papers

Internet in Turkey and Pakistan: A Comparative Analysis, The

Seymour E. Goodman, Peter Wolcott
CISAC, 2000 December 1, 2000

The Global Diffusion of the Internet Project was initiated in 1997 to study the diffusion and absorption of the Internet to, and within, many diverse countries. This research has resulted in an ongoing series of reports and articles that have developed an analytic framework for evaluating the Internet within countries and applied it to more than 25 countries. (See http://mosaic.unomaha.edu/gdi.html for links to some of these reports and articles.)

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Working Papers

Diffusion of the Internet in China, The

Seymour E. Goodman, William Foster
CISAC, 2000 November 1, 2000

China and the United States share a new and rapidly expanding border-the Internet. It is a border that neither country fully understands. The possibility for misunderstanding is great because the Internet is not only transforming the relationship between the two countries, it is also transforming the countries themselves. It could be argued that China is going through the greater change.

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Working Papers

Proposal for an International Convention on Cyber Crime and Terrorism, A

Abraham D. Sofaer, Seymour E. Goodman
CISAC, 2000 August 1, 2000

The information infrastructure is increasingly under attack by cyber criminals. The number, cost, and sophistication of attacks are increasing at alarming rates. Worldwide aggregate annual damage from attacks is now measured in billions of U.S. dollars. Attacks threaten the substantial and growing reliance of commerce, governments, and the public upon the information infrastructure to conduct business, carry messages, and process information. Most significant attacks are transnational by design, with victims throughout the world.

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Policy Briefs

Civil Liberties and Security in Cyberspace

Ekaterina Drozdova
CISAC, 2000 August 1, 2000

Societies are becoming more dependent on computer networks and therefore more vulnerable to cyber crime and terrorism. Measures to protect information systems are receiving increasing attention as the threat of attack grows and the nature of that threat is better understood. The primary purpose of this article is to determine what legal standards should govern the use of such measures and what nontechnical constraints are likely to be placed, or should be placed, on them.

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Working Papers

How Much Is Enough? A Risk-Management Approach to Computer Security

Kevin J. Soo Hoo
CISAC, 2000 August 1, 2000

How much security is enough? No one today can satisfactorily answer this question for computer-related risks. The first generation of computer security risk modelers struggled with issues arising out of their binary view of security, ensnaring them in an endless web of assessment, disagreement, and gridlock. Even as professional risk managers wrest responsibility away from the first-generation technologists, they are still unable to answer the question with sufficient quantitative rigor.

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Working Papers

Raising Global Physical Protection Standards for Weapon-Usable Nuclear Material

George Bunn
Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, 41st Annual Meeting, 2000 July 1, 2000
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Journal Articles

Africa's Scramble for Africa: Lessons of a Continental War

Jeremy Weinstein
World Policy Journal, 2000 July 1, 2000

The war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which began in August 1998, is unprecedented-at times involving armies from eight African states. Soldiers from Chad are fighting alongside regiments from Namibia, Angola, and Zimbabwe in defense of President Laurent Kabila. And on offense, the two main rebel groups, the Congolese Assembly for Democracy (which is known by the acronym RCD) and the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC), are backed by troops from Uganda and Rwanda. As Susan E.

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Journal Articles

Raising International Standards for Protecting Nuclear Materials from Theft and Sabotage

George Bunn
The Nonproliferation Review, 2000 July 1, 2000

The break-up of the Soviet Union resulted in conditions that focused attention on the possible risk of "loose nukes."  But the risk from insecure nuclear materials is not limited to the former Soviet Union; there is a need to ensure adequate physical protection on a global basis. 

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Working Papers

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Next Steps, The

Christopher F. Chyba, Thomas Graham, Jr.
, 2000 July 1, 2000

On July 19, 2000 the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and the Lawyers Alliance for World Security (LAWS) gathered forty preeminent scientists, security experts, and political analysts for a Roundtable Discussion on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty at Stanford University. The day-long seminar was intended to explore the diverse set of topics that arose during the October 1999 Sentate debate of the Treaty and to develop a consensus on steps that the United States should now take with regard to the CTBT.

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Working Papers

Ballistic-Missile Defence and Strategic Stability

Dean Wilkening
Adelphi Paper, International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2000 May 1, 2000

Should the US deploy ballistic-missile defences? The arguments for and against are becoming increasingly polarised. This paper offers what is currently lacking in the debate: a quantitative analysis of how well defences would have to work to meet specific security objectives, and what level of defence might upset strategic stability.

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Journal Articles

Amending the ABM Treaty

Dean Wilkening
Survival, International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2000 April 1, 2000

In deploying NMD, the challenge facing the US is to devise a package of incentives that will secure Russian agreement to amend the ABM Treaty. The most promising would involve US concessions in a future START III Treaty to accommodate Moscow's interests. In particular, the US could allow Russia to deploy multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) on mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which are far less destabilising to the nuclear balance than many arms-control advocates assume. In addition,

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Journal Articles

Commitment Trap, The: Why The United States Should Not Use Nuclear Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks

Scott D. Sagan
International Security, 2000 April 1, 2000

How should the United States deal with so-called rogue states that threaten to use chemical or biological weapons against the U.S. homeland or its troops abroad? Scott Sagan of Stanford University examines Washington's "calculated ambiguity doctrine," which holds that the United States does not rule out the use of nuclear weapons in response to a chemical or biological weapons attack. Sagan argues that the risks associated with this doctrine outweigh the benefits.

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Working Papers

Impact on Global Warming of Development and Structural Changes in The Electricity Sector of Guangdong Province, China

Chi Zhang, Michael M. May, Thomas C. Heller
CISAC, 2000 March 1, 2000

This paper examines the impact on global warming of development and structural changes in the electricity sector of Guangdong Province, China, together with the possible effect of international instruments such as are generated by the Kyoto Protocol on that impact. The purpose of the paper is three-fold: to examine and analyze the data available, to put that data into an explanatory economic and institutional framework, and to analyze the possible application of international instruments such as CDMs in that locality.

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Working Papers

U.S. Enlargement Strategy and Nuclear Weapons, The

Michael M. May
CISAC, 2000 March 1, 2000

The United States has a global security strategy, in deeds if seldom clearly in words. The U.S. security strategy is to enlarge the areas of the world that it can control militarily and to weaken all states outside those areas. The strategy does not rely solely on military means, but enlarged military control is the end and military means--armed interventions, alliance extensions, arms sales--usually lead the way.

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Working Papers

Verification Regime for Warhead Control, A

Suping Liu
CISAC, 2000 January 1, 2000

After a brief period of progress, the U.S.-Russian nuclear reduction process has reached a stalemate. This situation causes us to rethink the following issues:

- What is the motivation for the two nuclear superpowers to conduct nuclear reductions?

- How can the focus of the nuclear arms reduction process be changed from verification of reduction of delivery vehicles to verification of reduction of warheads and nuclear materials?

- What is the objective for future nuclear reductions?

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