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Working Paper

Siegfried S. Hecker, Chaim Braun, Christopher Lawrence, Panos Papadiamantis
2016
In January 2004, a delegation from Stanford University led by Prof. John W. Lewis and joined by one of the authors, Siegfried S. Hecker, at the time senior fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and former director, was invited to visit the Yongbyon Nuclear Center. This visit by Hecker and follow-on visits during each of the next six consecutive years contributed substantially to our knowledge of North Korean nuclear activities. In this report, we utilize information obtained during the Stanford delegation visits, along with other open-source information, to provide a holistic assessment of North Korean nuclear developments from the demise of the Agreed Framework through November 2015.
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Book

Siegfried S. Hecker
Los Alamos Historical Society, 2016

Doomed to Cooperate tells the remarkable story of nuclear scientists from two former enemy nations, Russia and the United States, who reached across political, geographic, and cultural divides to confront, together, the new nuclear threats that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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Journal Article

John W. Lewis, Xue Litai
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2016

In 2013, China president Xi Jinping launched a massive reclamation and construction campaign on seven reefs in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Beijing insisted that its actions were responsible and in accord with international law, but foreign critics questioned Xi’s real intentions. Recently available internal documents by China’s leader reveal his views about war, the importance of oceans in protecting and rejuvenating the nation, and the motives underlying his actions in the South China Sea.

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Journal Article

Nina Silove, Nina Silove
International Security, 2016

The United States’ strategic reorientation toward the Asia Pacific began not under the Barack Obama administration, but under the George W. Bush administration. As part of this reorientation, the Bush administration pursued a series of military, political, and economic policies aimed at engaging with and balancing against China, not containing it.

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Book

Anja Manuel
2016

In the next decade and a half, China and India will become two of the world’s indispensable powers—whether they rise peacefully or not. During that time, Asia will surpass the combined strength of North America and Europe in economic might, population size, and military spending.

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Journal Article

Amy Zegart, Amy Zegart, Stephen Krasner
American Interest, 2016
The United States is exceptionally secure. No country today presents a clear and imminent security threat in the way that Germany, Japan, or the Soviet Union did in the 20th century. In the short and medium term, there is also no alternative value system that could displace America’s conception of individual liberty and a market-oriented economy—principles that have been embraced by all of the world’s wealthy industrialized countries in Western Europe, North America, and East Asia.
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Book

Gabrielle Hecht
Editions du Seuil, 2016

This is a 2016 French translation of Being Nuclear: Africans and the Global Uranium Trade (2012), translated by Charlotte Nordmann and part of the series "L'Univers Historique."

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Book

Edward D. Blandford, Scott D. Sagan
2016

This book—the culmination of a truly collaborative international and highly interdisciplinary effort—brings together Japanese and American political scientists, nuclear engineers, historians, and physicists to examine the Fukushima accident from a new and broad perspective.
  

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Book

Thomas Fingar
Stanford University Press, 2016
China's rise has elicited envy, admiration, and fear among its neighbors. Although much has been written about this, previous coverage portrays events as determined almost entirely by Beijing.
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Working Paper

Marshall Kuypers, Marshall Kuypers, Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Thomas Maillart
2016

Every day, security engineers cope with a flow of cyber security incidents. While most incidents trigger routine reactions, others require orders of magnitude more effort to investigate and resolve. How security operation teams in organizations should tune their response to tame extreme events remains unclear. Analyzing the statistical properties of sixty thousand security events collected over six years at a large organization, we find that the distribution of costs induced by security incidents is in general highly skewed, following a power law tail distribution.

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Journal Article

Patrick Cirenza
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2016
Despite the tempting similarities, the analogy between nuclear and cyber weapons is presently flawed. High-ranking officials that are using it as the basis for policies of deterrence in cyberspace are making a potentially dangerous misjudgment. Given the wide-open future of cyber warfare, it would make sense to expand the analogy to include other revolutionary military technologies to provide the conceptual flexibility necessary to confront the presently unforeseeable challenges that lie ahead in cyberspace.
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Working Paper

Marshall Kuypers, Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Marshall Kuypers
2016

Despite significant interest in cybersecurity, data on cyber security incidents remains scarce. On April 16, 2015, the US Department of Energy released data on 1,131 cybersecurity incidents through a Freedom of Information Act Request. While only containing the date, location, and type of incident, several interesting insights can be kneaded from the data. In this paper, we analyze the DOE security incident data and perform a statistical analysis on the rate of incidents.

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Journal Article

Magdalena Stawkowski, Magdalena Stawkowski
American Ethnologist, 2016

The Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan was conceived as an experimental landscape where science, technology, Soviet Cold War militarism, and human biology intersected. As of 2015, thousands of people continue to live in rural communities in the immediate vicinity of this polluted landscape. Lacking good economic options, many of them claim to be “mutants” adapted to radiation, while outsiders see them as genetically tainted. In such a setting, how do post-Soviet social, political, and economic transformations operate with radioactivity to co-constitute a “mutant” subjectivity?

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Working Paper

Amy Zegart, Stephen D. Krasner, Karl Eikenberry, James D. Fearon, Frank Fukuyama, David M. Kennedy, Abraham D. Sofaer
Hoover Institution Press, 2016
The Hoover Institution’s Working Group on Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy has produced a national security strategy that acknowledges this uncertainty and hedges as well as engages, recognizing that resources are not limitless. This strategy also endeavors to lay out the conceptual and policy road map for success
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Journal Article

Joseph Felter, Benjamin Crost, Patrick Johnston
Journal of Development Economics, 2016

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflictand theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level.

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Book

William J. Perry, William J. Perry
Stanford University Press, 2016

My Journey at the Nuclear Brink is a continuation of William J. Perry's efforts to keep the world safe from a nuclear catastrophe. It tells the story of his coming of age in the nuclear era, his role in trying to shape and contain it, and how his thinking has changed about the threat these weapons pose.
  

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Journal Article

David Holloway, David Holloway
Cold War History, 2016

The Soviet Union responded sceptically to Eisenhower’s ‘Atoms for Peace’ speech in December 1953 but eventually entered negotiations on the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It believed the IAEA would provide opportunities for political influence and scientific collaboration. It did not want the peaceful uses of atomic energy around the world to be dominated by the United States. It pressed for close ties between the new agency and the United Nations and supported India and other developing countries in their opposition to safeguards.

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Book

Benoît Pelopidas, Nick Ritchie
Nik Hynek and Michal Smetana, (eds.), Global Nuclear Disarmament. Strategic, Political and Regional Perspectives. London: Routledge: 225-250, 2015

France and the UK have had different approaches to the possibility of nuclear disarmament; these derive from the different post- Second World War national narratives in which the development of nuclear weapons has been embedded. This started from two different attitudes toward the NATO Alliance and its nuclear component, two different sets of lessons learned from the 1956 Suez crisis, and it culminated in two different reactions to the increase in nuclear disarmament advocacy worldwide, which is the focus of this chapter.

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Journal Article

Thomas V Inglesby, David Relman
Wiley Online Library, 2015

The fact that biological weapons have never been used—at least in recent history—is not sufficient reason to dismiss concerns that terrorists or nations could acquire and use dangerous pathogens as weapons. The ongoing discussion about gain-of-function experiments should take this very real prospect more seriously.

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Journal Article

Megan Palmer , David Relman, Frank Fukuyama
Science, 2015

Management of emerging risks in life science and technology requires new leadership and a sober assessment of the legacy of Asilomar.

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Working Paper

Marshall Kuypers, Marshall Kuypers, Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
2015

Organizations often record cybersecurity incidents to track employee workload, satisfy auditors, fulfil reporting requirements, or to analyze cyber risk. While security incident databases are often neglected, they contain invaluable information that can be leveraged to assess the threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts of cyber attacks, providing a detailed view of cyber risk in an organization. This paper emphasizes what data is useful for a risk assessments and how data should be recorded.

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Book

Brad Roberts
Stanford University Press, 2015

Brad Roberts's book is a counter to the conventional wisdom that the United States can and should do more to reduce both the role of nuclear weapons in its security strategies and the number of nuclear weapons in its arsenal.  

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Journal Article

Edward Geist
Strategic Studies Quarterly, 2015
Technical and operational realities make it prohibitively difficult to adapt a Cold War paradigm of “deterrence stability” to the new domain of cyber warfare. Information quality problems are likely to forestall the development of a cyber equivalent of the strategic exchange models that assessed deterrence stability during the Cold War. ...
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Journal Article

Amy Zegart, Mark Pythian
Routledge - Taylor & Francis Group, 2015
Eight leading experts in the areas of intelligence ethics and oversight and accountability were invited to contribute their perspectives on the US Senate Select Committee Report on the CIA's Detention and Interrogation Program The responses that follow, presented in alphabetical order, offer a range of views that together provide an excellent guide to the questions and concerns posed by the report and its reception, ...
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Journal Article

Robert Rakove, Robert Rakove
The International History Review, 2015
From its inception, the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) considered itself to be a moderating force in the cold war and in the post-colonial world. In September 1961, in the wake of the Belgrade Conference and at the height of the Berlin crisis, it dispatched emergency missions to Washington and Moscow, with Sukarno and Keita journeying to Washington and Nehru and Nkrumah flying to Moscow. Yet, by the decade's end, the movement had moved away from that mission. Paying particular attention to key turning points of the mid-1960s such as the 1964 Congo crisis and the Americanisation of the Vietnam War, this paper interprets the abandonment of cold war mediation as a product of the Vietnam War, rising anti-colonial sentiment, and organised non-alignment's corresponding shift toward a more militant stance on the world stage. This shift helped to foster a newly antagonistic relationship between the United States and the NAM.
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