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Journal Article

Matthew Fuhrmann, Matthew Fuhrmann, Michael C. Horowitz, Sarah E. Kreps
International Security, 2016

What are the consequences of drone proliferation for international security? Despite extensive discussions in the policy world concerning drone strikes for counterterrorism purposes, myths about the capabilities and implications of current-generation drones often outstrip reality. Understanding the impact of drones requires separating fact from fiction by examining their effects in six different contexts—counterterrorism, interstate conflict, crisis onset and deterrence, coercive diplomacy, domestic control and repression, and use by nonstate actors for the purposes of terrorism.

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Book

Harold Trinkunas, Anne Clunan
Stanford University Press, 2016

"Ungoverned spaces" are often cited as key threats to national and international security and are increasingly targeted by the international community for external interventions—both armed and otherwise. This book examines exactly when and how these spaces contribute to global insecurity, and it incorporates the many spaces where state authority is contested—from tribal, sectarian, or clan-based governance in such places as Pakistani Waziristan, to areas ruled by persistent insurgencies, such as Colombia, to nonphysical spaces, such as the internet and global finance.

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Book

Harold Trinkunas, David R. Mares, David R. Mares
Brookings Institution Press, 2016

Aspirational Power examines Brazil as an emerging power. It explains Brazil’s present emphasis on using soft power through a historical analysis of Brazil’s three past attempts to achieve major power status. Though these efforts have fallen short, this book suggests that Brazil will continue to try to emerge, but that it will only succeed when its domestic institutions provide a solid and attractive foundation for the deployment of its soft power abroad.

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Book

Harold Trinkunas, Harold Trinkunas, Arturo C. Sotomayor, Maiah Jaskoski
Johns Hopkins University Press, 2016

In American Crossings, nine scholars consider the complicated modern history of borders in the Western Hemisphere, examining borders as geopolitical boundaries, key locations for internal security, spaces for international trade, and areas where national and community identities are defined.

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Book

Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer
Cornell University Press, 2016

 In Unclear Physics, Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer tells the story of the Iraqi and Libyan programs from their origins in the late 1950s and 1960s until their dismantling.

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Working Paper

Herbert Lin, Herbert Lin
Social Science Research Network, 2016

Attribution of malicious cyber activities is a deep issue about which confusion and disquiet can be found in abundance. Attribution has many aspects—technical, political, legal, policy, and so on. A number of well-researched and executed papers cover one or more of these aspects, but integration of these aspects is usually left as an exercise for the analyst. This paper distinguishes between attribution of malicious cyber activity to a machine, to a specific human being pressing the keys that initiate that activity, and to a party that is deemed ultimately responsible for that activity.

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Journal Article

Siegfried S. Hecker, Siegfried S. Hecker
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2016

Stanford expert Siegfried Hecker proposes a series of nuclear weapons and energy questions that journalists and citizens should consider asking the 2016 presidential candidates.

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Book

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, William B. Rouse, Charles M. Vest
Wiley (1st edition), 2016

This book discusses issues in large-scale systems in the United States and around the world. The authors examine the challenges of education, energy, healthcare, national security, and urban resilience. The book covers challenges in education including America's use of educational funds, standardized testing, and the use of classroom technology.  On the topic of energy, this book examines debates on climate, the current and future developments of the nuclear power industry, the benefits and cost decline of natural gases, and the promise of renewable energy.

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Working Paper

Siegfried S. Hecker, Chaim Braun, Christopher Lawrence, Panos Papadiamantis
2016
In January 2004, a delegation from Stanford University led by Prof. John W. Lewis and joined by one of the authors, Siegfried S. Hecker, at the time senior fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and former director, was invited to visit the Yongbyon Nuclear Center. This visit by Hecker and follow-on visits during each of the next six consecutive years contributed substantially to our knowledge of North Korean nuclear activities. In this report, we utilize information obtained during the Stanford delegation visits, along with other open-source information, to provide a holistic assessment of North Korean nuclear developments from the demise of the Agreed Framework through November 2015.
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Book

Siegfried S. Hecker
Los Alamos Historical Society, 2016

Doomed to Cooperate tells the remarkable story of nuclear scientists from two former enemy nations, Russia and the United States, who reached across political, geographic, and cultural divides to confront, together, the new nuclear threats that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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Journal Article

John W. Lewis, Xue Litai
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2016

In 2013, China president Xi Jinping launched a massive reclamation and construction campaign on seven reefs in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Beijing insisted that its actions were responsible and in accord with international law, but foreign critics questioned Xi’s real intentions. Recently available internal documents by China’s leader reveal his views about war, the importance of oceans in protecting and rejuvenating the nation, and the motives underlying his actions in the South China Sea.

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Journal Article

Nina Silove, Nina Silove
International Security, 2016

The United States’ strategic reorientation toward the Asia Pacific began not under the Barack Obama administration, but under the George W. Bush administration. As part of this reorientation, the Bush administration pursued a series of military, political, and economic policies aimed at engaging with and balancing against China, not containing it.

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Book

Anja Manuel
2016

In the next decade and a half, China and India will become two of the world’s indispensable powers—whether they rise peacefully or not. During that time, Asia will surpass the combined strength of North America and Europe in economic might, population size, and military spending.

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Journal Article

Amy Zegart, Amy Zegart, Stephen Krasner
American Interest, 2016
The United States is exceptionally secure. No country today presents a clear and imminent security threat in the way that Germany, Japan, or the Soviet Union did in the 20th century. In the short and medium term, there is also no alternative value system that could displace America’s conception of individual liberty and a market-oriented economy—principles that have been embraced by all of the world’s wealthy industrialized countries in Western Europe, North America, and East Asia.
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Book

Gabrielle Hecht
Editions du Seuil, 2016

This is a 2016 French translation of Being Nuclear: Africans and the Global Uranium Trade (2012), translated by Charlotte Nordmann and part of the series "L'Univers Historique."

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Book

Edward D. Blandford, Scott D. Sagan
2016

This book—the culmination of a truly collaborative international and highly interdisciplinary effort—brings together Japanese and American political scientists, nuclear engineers, historians, and physicists to examine the Fukushima accident from a new and broad perspective.
  

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Book

Thomas Fingar
Stanford University Press, 2016
China's rise has elicited envy, admiration, and fear among its neighbors. Although much has been written about this, previous coverage portrays events as determined almost entirely by Beijing.
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Working Paper

Marshall Kuypers, Marshall Kuypers, Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Thomas Maillart
2016

Every day, security engineers cope with a flow of cyber security incidents. While most incidents trigger routine reactions, others require orders of magnitude more effort to investigate and resolve. How security operation teams in organizations should tune their response to tame extreme events remains unclear. Analyzing the statistical properties of sixty thousand security events collected over six years at a large organization, we find that the distribution of costs induced by security incidents is in general highly skewed, following a power law tail distribution.

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Journal Article

Patrick Cirenza
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2016
Despite the tempting similarities, the analogy between nuclear and cyber weapons is presently flawed. High-ranking officials that are using it as the basis for policies of deterrence in cyberspace are making a potentially dangerous misjudgment. Given the wide-open future of cyber warfare, it would make sense to expand the analogy to include other revolutionary military technologies to provide the conceptual flexibility necessary to confront the presently unforeseeable challenges that lie ahead in cyberspace.
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Working Paper

Marshall Kuypers, Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Marshall Kuypers
2016

Despite significant interest in cybersecurity, data on cyber security incidents remains scarce. On April 16, 2015, the US Department of Energy released data on 1,131 cybersecurity incidents through a Freedom of Information Act Request. While only containing the date, location, and type of incident, several interesting insights can be kneaded from the data. In this paper, we analyze the DOE security incident data and perform a statistical analysis on the rate of incidents.

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Journal Article

Magdalena Stawkowski, Magdalena Stawkowski
American Ethnologist, 2016

The Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan was conceived as an experimental landscape where science, technology, Soviet Cold War militarism, and human biology intersected. As of 2015, thousands of people continue to live in rural communities in the immediate vicinity of this polluted landscape. Lacking good economic options, many of them claim to be “mutants” adapted to radiation, while outsiders see them as genetically tainted. In such a setting, how do post-Soviet social, political, and economic transformations operate with radioactivity to co-constitute a “mutant” subjectivity?

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Working Paper

Amy Zegart, Stephen D. Krasner, Karl Eikenberry, James D. Fearon, Frank Fukuyama, David M. Kennedy, Abraham D. Sofaer
Hoover Institution Press, 2016
The Hoover Institution’s Working Group on Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy has produced a national security strategy that acknowledges this uncertainty and hedges as well as engages, recognizing that resources are not limitless. This strategy also endeavors to lay out the conceptual and policy road map for success
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Journal Article

Joseph Felter, Benjamin Crost, Patrick Johnston
Journal of Development Economics, 2016

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflictand theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level.

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Book

William J. Perry, William J. Perry
Stanford University Press, 2016

My Journey at the Nuclear Brink is a continuation of William J. Perry's efforts to keep the world safe from a nuclear catastrophe. It tells the story of his coming of age in the nuclear era, his role in trying to shape and contain it, and how his thinking has changed about the threat these weapons pose.
  

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Journal Article

David Holloway, David Holloway
Cold War History, 2016

The Soviet Union responded sceptically to Eisenhower’s ‘Atoms for Peace’ speech in December 1953 but eventually entered negotiations on the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It believed the IAEA would provide opportunities for political influence and scientific collaboration. It did not want the peaceful uses of atomic energy around the world to be dominated by the United States. It pressed for close ties between the new agency and the United Nations and supported India and other developing countries in their opposition to safeguards.

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