Iran launched two retaliatory strikes against Israel in the wake of the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1 and the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC General Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut on Sept. 27. The strikes resulted in limited damage and no Israeli casualties, with many of its missiles and drones intercepted by Israeli and allied air defenses. Israeli and U.S. officials have widely celebrated these outcomes as evidence of their superior military capabilities and advanced missile defense systems. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan concluded that the Iran retaliation in October as “defeated and ineffective.”

This is an attractive self-congratulatory narrative that plays into entrenched beliefs among some security experts of Western military technological supremacy. However, this interpretation is a dangerous misreading of the situation. My own research on the revenge cycle in international crisis suggests an alternative explanation: Iran’s low impact responses are not a reflection of incapacity, but an intentional escalation management strategy designed to limit damage to Israel and prevent a vengeful escalatory spiral into regional war.

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