The People’s Republic of China is currently on a nuclear tear, building up its arsenal from roughly 500 warheads today to as many as 1,500 by 2035. It is also building up its ability to launch nuclear weapons, with 300 new ballistic missile silos to the north and west of Beijing and new submarines and bombers in the offing. All of these systems will be pointed at the US and its allies. 

At the same time, Russia is embroiled in a war of aggression against Ukraine in which it has rattled the nuclear sabre yet again. It is refusing to allow inspections and other implementation measures agreed under the US/Russian nuclear arms reduction treaty New Start, saying that the US and Nato must cease assisting Ukraine before it will consider negotiating. The Kremlin has vowed to stay within the limits of the treaty — 1,550 warheads and 700 missiles and bombers — but it is due to go out of force in 2026.  

Both China and Russia are refusing to talk to the US about new controls on strategic nuclear weapons. It is as if the near-apocalyptic experience of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the Soviet Union and US brought the world to the brink of nuclear war, has disappeared from collective memory.

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