Political winds seem to be shifting, with India adopting a more conciliatory crouch towards China. In a podcast released in mid-March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his warmest comments about China in years, saying “only through dialogue can we build a stable, cooperative relationship”, which is “essential for global stability and prosperity”. Chinese officials lapped it up.

This has not come out of nowhere. India-China relations have been slowly recovering since they ruptured in 2020, when China launched multiple incursions across the Line of Actual Control, into Ladakh, and a skirmish killed 20 Indian soldiers. Military talks haltingly disengaged forces from many sites on the border. Despite a diplomatic freeze, bilateral trade grew to set new records. And less than six months ago, in October last year, India and China made a surprising deal to disengage their troops from the last two incursion sites. The crisis was nominally resolved, and the two countries were on the path toward normalisation.

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