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In July, the Trump administration released an artificial intelligence action plan titled “Winning the AI Race,” which framed global competition over AI in stark terms: whichever country achieves dominance in the technology will reap overwhelming economic, military, and geopolitical advantages. As it did during the Cold War with the space race or the nuclear buildup, the U.S. government is now treating AI as a contest with a single finish line and a single victor.

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Neither America Nor China Can Achieve True Tech Dominance

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In 2022, China’s AI developer community faced dual shocks from the United States. In October, the U.S. government imposed unilateral export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and the most powerful chips for large language model (LLM) training. The following month, OpenAI brought state-of-the-art LLM technology to broad public attention with the launch of ChatGPT. Chinese commentators, noting the government launched a comprehensive plan for AI development five years earlier, asked why breakthroughs were not happening in China, and how Chinese developers could compete with the United States.

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DigiChina in collaboration with HAI

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In early 2025, President Donald Trump unveiled his “America First Investment Policy,” an effort to make the United States a more appealing destination for foreign capital from U.S. allies. Since then, President Trump has secured commitments from many trading partners to significantly ramp-up their investment in the United States. Regulators now should focus on reducing red tape and eliminating unnecessary barriers to investment to ensure that this wave of foreign capital generates returns for the American people and advances U.S. national security.

One area ripe for reform is the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), an interagency regulatory body chaired by the Treasury Department and accountable to the President.

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In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualitatively built up its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, there have been significant breakthroughs in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, including for military applications. As a result of these two trends, understanding the AI-nuclear nexus in the context of U.S.-China-Russia geopolitical competition is increasingly urgent.

There are various military use cases for AI, including classification models, analytic and predictive models, generative AI, and autonomy. Given that variety, it is necessary to examine the AI-nuclear nexus across three broad categories: nuclear command, control, and communications; structural elements of the nuclear balance; and entanglement of AI-enabled conventional systems with nuclear risks. While each of these categories has the potential to generate risk, this report argues that the degree of risk posed by a particular case depends on three major factors: the role of humans, the degree to which AI systems become a single point of failure, and the AI offense-defense balance.

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U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry at the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence

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Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, the breakneck pace of progress in artificial intelligence has made it nearly impossible for policymakers to keep up. But the AI revolution has only just begun. Today’s most powerful AI models, often referred to as “frontier AI,” can handle and generate images, audio, video, and computer code, in addition to natural language. Their remarkable performance has prompted ambitions among leading AI labs to achieve what is called “artificial general intelligence.” According to a growing number of experts, AGI systems equaling or surpassing humans across a wide range of cognitive tasks—the equivalent of millions of brilliant minds working tirelessly at the top of their fields at machine speed—may soon be capable of unlocking scientific discoveries, enhancing economic productivity, and tackling tough national security challenges. With advances once in the realm of science fiction now in the realm of possibility, the United States has no time to spare in crafting a coherent and truly global strategy.

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To Stay Ahead of China, Trump Must Build on Biden’s Work

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Discussions in Washington about artificial intelligence increasingly turn to how the United States can win the AI race with China. One of President Donald Trump’s first acts on returning to office was to sign an executive order declaring the need to “sustain and enhance America’s global AI dominance.” At the Paris AI Action Summit in February, Vice President JD Vance emphasized the administration’s commitment to ensuring that “American AI technology continues to be the gold standard worldwide.” And in May, David Sacks, Trump’s AI and crypto czar, cited the need “to win the AI race” to justify exporting advanced AI chips to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

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America Needs More Than Innovation to Compete With China

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In September 2022, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan identified quantum technologies as one of three — biotech, clean energy (including batteries), and next-generation computing (including quantum and semiconductors)—that are critical to the economic and national security of the United States.1 By allowing for new methods of computation, sensing, and communications, quantum technologies have the potential to revolutionize not only commercial industries, such as financial services, chemical engineering, and energy (among others), but also national security capabilities, such as code breaking and remote sensing.

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While the potential benefits of artificial intelligence are significant and far-reaching, AI’s potential dangers to the global order necessitates an astute governance and policy-making approach, panelists said at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) on May 23.

An alumni event at the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy (MIP) program featured a panel discussion on “The Impact of AI on the Global Order.” Participants included Anja Manuel, Jared Dunnmon, David Lobell, and Nathaniel Persily. The moderator was Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini senior fellow at FSI and director of the master’s program.

Manuel, an affiliate at FSI’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group, said that what “artificial intelligence is starting to already do is it creates superpowers in the way it intersects with other technologies.”

An alumna of the MIP program, Manuel noted an experiment a year ago in Switzerland where researchers asked an AI tool to come up with new nerve agents – and it did very rapidly, 40,000 of them. On the subject of strategic nuclear deterrence, AI capabilities may upend existing policy approaches. Though about 30 countries have voluntarily signed up to follow governance standards in how AI would be used in military conflicts, the future is unclear.

“I worry a lot,” said Manuel, noting that AI-controlled fighter jets will likely be more effective than human-piloted craft. “There is a huge incentive to escalate and to let the AI do more and more and more of the fighting, and I think the U.S. government is thinking it through very carefully.”
 


AI amplifies the abilities of all good and bad actors in the system to achieve all the same goals they’ve always had.
Nathaniel Persily
Co-director of the Cyber Policy Center


Geopolitical Competition


Dunnmon, a CISAC affiliate and senior advisor to the director of the Defense Innovation Unit, spoke about the “holistic geopolitical competition” among world powers in the AI realm as these systems offer “unprecedented speed and unprecedented scale.”

“Within that security lens, there’s actually competition across the entirety of the technical AI stack,” he said.

Dunnmon said an underlying security question involves whether a given AI software is running on top of libraries that are sourced from Western companies then if software is being built on top of an underlying library stack owned by state enterprises. “That’s a different world.”

He said that “countries are competing for data, and it’s becoming a battlefield of geopolitical competition.”

Societal, Environmental Implications


Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and the director of the Center for Food Security and the Environment, said his biggest concern is about how AI might change the functioning of societies as well as possible bioterrorism.

“Any environment issue is basically a collective action problem, and you need well-functioning societies with good governance and political institutions, and if that crumbles, I don’t think we have much hope.”

On the positive aspects of AI, he said the combination of AI and synthetic biology and gene editing are starting to produce much faster production cycles of agricultural products, new breeds of animals, and novel foods. One company found how to make a good substitute for milk if pineapple, cabbage and other ingredients are used.

Lobell said that AI can understand which ships are actually illegally capturing seafood, and then they can trace that back to where they eventually offload such cargo. In addition, AI can help create deforestation-free supply chains, and AI mounted on farm tractors can help reduce 90% of the chemicals being used that pose environmental risks.

“There’s clear tangible progress being made with these technologies in the realm of the environment, and we can continue to build on that,” he added.
 


Countries are competing for data, and it’s becoming a battlefield of geopolitical competition.
Jared Dunnmon
Affiiate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)


AI and Democracy


Persily, a senior fellow and co-director of FSI’s Cyber Policy Center, said, “AI amplifies the abilities of all good and bad actors in the system to achieve all the same goals they’ve always had.”

He noted, “AI is not social media,” even though it can interact with social media. Persily said AI is so much more pervasive and significant than a given platform such as Facebook. Problems arise in the areas of privacy, antitrust, bias and disinformation, but AI issues are “characteristically different” than social media.

“One of the ways that AI is different than social media is the fact that they are open-source tools. We need to think about this in a little bit of a different way, which is that it is not just a few companies that can be regulated on closed systems,” Persily said.

As a result, AI tools are available to all of us, he said. “There is the possibility that some of the benefits of AI could be realized more globally,” but there are also risks. For example, in the year and a half since OpenAI released ChatGPT, which is open sourced, child pornography has multiplied on the Internet.

“The democratization of AI will lead to fundamental challenges to establish legacy infrastructure for the governance of the propagation of content,” Persily said.

Balance of AI Power


Fukuyama pointed out that an AI lab at Stanford could not afford leading-edge technology, yet countries such as the U.S. and China have deeper resources to fund AI endeavors.

“This is something obviously that people are worried about,” he said, “whether these two countries are going to dominate the AI race and the AI world and disadvantage everybody.”

Manuel said that most of AI is now operating with voluntary governance – “patchwork” – and that dangerous things involving AI can be done now. “In the end, we’re going to have to adopt a negotiation and an arms control approach to the national security side of this.” 

Lobell said that while it might seem universities can’t stay up to speed with industry, people have shown they can reproduce those models’ performances just days after their releases.
 


In the end, we’re going to have to adopt a negotiation and an arms control approach to the national security side of this.
Anja Manuel
Affiiate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)


On regulation — the European Union is currently weighing legislation — Persily said it would be difficult to enforce regulations and interpret risk assessments, so what is needed is a “transparency regime” and an infrastructure so civil entities have a clear view on what models are being released – yet this will be complex.

“I don’t think we even really understand what a sophisticated, full-on AI audit of these systems would look like,” he said.

Dunnmon suggested that an AI governance entity could be created that’s similar to how the U.S. Food and Drug Agency reviews pharmaceuticals before release.

In terms of AI and military conflicts, he spoke about the need for AI and humans to understand the rewards and risks involved, and in the case of the latter, how the risk compares to the “next best option.”

“How do you communicate that risk, how do you assess that risk, and how do you make sure the right person with the right equities and the right understanding of those risks is making that risk trade-off decision?” he asked.



The Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy program was established in 1982 to provide students with the knowledge and skills necessary to analyze and address complex global challenges in a rapidly changing world, and to prepare the next generation of leaders for public and private sector careers in international policymaking and implementation.

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Francis Fukuyama, Anja Manuel, Jared Dunnmon, David Lobell, and Nathaniel Persily discuss the impact of artificial intelligence during a panel held at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
At the annual alumni gathering of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, Francis Fukuyama, Anja Manuel, Jared Dunnmon, David Lobell, and Nathaniel Persily discussed the impact of artificial intelligence on the global order.
Meghan Moura
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At a gathering for alumni, the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy program hosted four experts to discuss the ramifications of AI on global security, the environment, and political systems.

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Seminar Recording

Co-sponsored with The World House Project at the Stanford Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law

About the Event: Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ralph Bunche was once so famous he handed out the Best Picture award at the 1951 Oscars. In this talk, Kal Raustiala, author of The Absolutely Indispensable Man: Ralph Bunche, the United Nations, and the Fight to End Empire explores Bunche’s extraordinary life and career, from professor of political science at Howard to the OSS, State Department, and eventually the UN, his professional home for 25 years. Bunche was a world class mediator and arguably the father of modern peacekeeping. But he was also a Black man in the very white world of diplomacy, who during the Cold War stood at the center of the one of the world’s great historical revolutions: the postwar decolonization of much of Africa and Asia.

About the Speaker: Kal Raustiala is the Promise Institute Distinguished Professor of Comparative and International Law at UCLA Law School, Professor at the UCLA International Institute, and Director of the UCLA Ronald W. Burkle Center for International Relations. From 2012-2015 he served as UCLA’s Associate Vice Provost for International Studies and Faculty Director of the International Education Office.

Professor Raustiala's research focuses on international law, international relations, and intellectual property. His recent publications include “The Fight Against China’s Bribe Machine,” Foreign Affairs, October 2021 (with Nicolas Barile); “Faster Fashion: The Piracy Paradox and its Perils,” 39 Cardozo Arts & Entertainment Law Journal, (Spring 2021)(with Christopher Sprigman); “NGOs in International Treatymaking,” in Duncan Hollis, ed, The Oxford Guide to Treaties, 2nd Edition (Oxford University Press, 2020); “ Hollywood is Running Out of Villains,” Foreign Affairs, August 2020; “Innovation in the Information Age: The United States, China, and the Struggle Over Intellectual Property in the 21st Century,” 58 Columbia Journal of Transnational Law (June 2020); and “The Second Digital Disruption: Streaming and the Dawn of Data-Driven Creativity,” NYU Law Review (2019, (with Christopher Sprigman). His books include Global Governance in a World of Change (Michael Barnett, Jon Pevehouse, and Kal Raustiala, eds, Cambridge University Press, 2021); Does the Constitution Follow the Flag? The Evolution of Territoriality in American Law (Oxford, 2009); and The Knockoff Economy: How Imitation Sparks Innovation (Oxford, 2012) (with Christopher Sprigman), which has been translated into Chinese, Korean, and Japanese. His biography of the late UN diplomat, civil rights advocate, and UCLA alum Ralph Bunche, The Absolutely Indispensable Man: Ralph Bunche, the United Nations, and the Fight to End Empire, will be published in late 2022 by Oxford University Press.

In 2016 Professor Raustiala was elected Vice President of the American Society of International Law. He has been a visiting professor at Yale Law School, Harvard Law School, Columbia Law School, Princeton University, the University of Chicago Law School, Melbourne University in Australia, and Hebrew University in Jerusalem. In 2016, he was the Yong Shook Lin Visiting Professor of Intellectual Property at the National University of Singapore. A graduate of Duke University, Professor Raustiala holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School and Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, San Diego.

Prior to coming to UCLA, Professor Raustiala was a research fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution, a Peccei Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems, and an assistant professor of politics at Brandeis University. A life member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Professor Raustiala has served on the editorial boards of International Organization and the American Journal of International Law and is a frequent media contributor whose writing has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the New Republic, the New Yorker, Wired, Slate, the International Herald Tribune and Le Monde. Along with Catherine Amirfar of Debevoise & Plimpton, he is co-host of the American Society of International Law’s International Law Behind the Headlines podcast.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

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Kal Raustiala
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About the Event: Under what conditions do dual-use emerging technologies proliferate in the international system? While the fourth industrial revolution (Information and Communications Technology revolution) is often associated with big data, I argue that emerging technologies should also be known for their level of prominence, complexity, unparalleled connectivity, enhanced performance, and uncertainty compared to traditional technologies. Leveraging open-source, multi-year data consisting of about two million observations from the National Science Foundation, arXiv, Small Business Innovation Research, and Department of Defense’s Research, Development, Test and Evaluation program, I first share an illustrative example differentiating frontier, emerging, and mature technologies with quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and GPS respectively. After providing conceptualizations of technologies, I then outline the conceptualization and operationalization of the outcome variable, proliferation. Proliferation includes two stages, specifically possession and the operationality of the emerging technology. In putting forth a novel definition of emerging technologies, this paper includes extensive and robust empirical analysis of patents through the World Intellectual Property Organization, investment via Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, and publications via arXiv, awards via the Small Business Innovation Research Program and the National Science Foundation. Overall, scholarly attention to emerging technologies is increasingly important as these innovations continue to take shape and impact the nature of national and international security.

About the Speaker: Julie George is a PhD Candidate in the Government department at Cornell University, specializing in international security. Broadly, her doctoral research examines the proliferation of emerging technologies and its impact on the probability and nature of conflict and cooperation in the international system. This focus has led her to engage a broad selection of scholarship across science and technology studies, history, international organizations, and law. Currently, she is a predoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) at Stanford University. More information regarding Julie’s research can be found at www.juliexgeorge.com.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Julie George Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation
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