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Dr. Edward Teller Speaker Hoover Institution
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David M. Bernstein
Bill Dunlop Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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David Elliott Speaker
Dave Montague Speaker
Ted Postol Speaker
Andrew Sessler Speaker
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In January last year, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld declared that the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization would henceforth be known as the Missile Defense Agency. More than just a name change and an elevation of bureaucratic status, Rumsfeld's reorganization made changes that altered the way the new agency would manage its programs and that signaled a radical departure from the way business is done in the rest of the Defense Department.

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Subrata Ghoshroy Senior Research Associate Speaker Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University
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Scott Straus Dept. of Political Science Speaker U.C. Berkeley
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Paragraphs

An influential conventional wisdom holds that civil wars proliferated rapidly with the end of the Cold War and that the root cause of many or most of these has been ethnic and religious antagonisms. We show that the current prevalence of internal war is mainly the result of a steady accumulation of protracted conflicts since the 1950s and 1960s rather than a sudden change associated with a new, post-Cold War international system. We also find that after controlling for per capita income, more ethnically or religiously diverse countries have been no more likely to experience significant civil violence in this period. We argue for understanding civil war in this period in terms of insurgency or rural guerrilla warfare, a particular form of military practice that can be harnessed to diverse political agendas. The factors that explain which countries have been at risk for civil war are not their ethnic or religious characteristics but rather the conditions that favor insurgency. These include poverty--which marks financially & bureaucratically weak states and also favors rebel recruitment--political instability, rough terrain, and large populations.

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
American Political Science Review
Authors
James D. Fearon
David Laitin
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Dean Wilkening Science Program Director Speaker
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