Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter praised two Stanford luminaries during his Pentagon policy speech on cybersecurity. He gave the annual Drell Lecture for Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. The lecture is named for theoretical physicist and arms control expert Sidney Drell, the center’s co-founder, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and former director of the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. Drell and former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry – a FSI senior fellow and consulting professor at CISAC – were both mentors to Carter. Drell could not attend due to illness and Perry was in the audience. Here are the comments Carter made about the two men who had such a significant impact on his life:

Thank you, Dr. Hennessy, for that introduction. And thanks to all my many friends and colleagues here at Stanford for the opportunity to be with you today. It’s a special privilege for me to give the Sidney Drell Lecture, and I need to tell you why.

I began my career in elementary particle physics, and the classic textbook in relativistic quantum field theory was Bjorken and Drell, entitled Relativistic Quantum Fields, which described the first of what are known as gauge field theories, namely quantum electrodynamics. Here is my copy of Bjorken and Drell, with my hand marking in the margins.

For my doctorate in theoretical physics, I worked on quantum chromodynamics, a gauge field theory of the force by which quarks are held together to make sub-nuclear particles. And at Oxford University’s department of theoretical physics, the external thesis examiner for my doctorate was none other than Sidney Drell.

When I visited the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center in subsequent years as a post-doc, I remember sitting on the porch of the rambling ranch house right here on the Stanford campus that Sid and Harriet Drell lived in. As post-docs tend to do, I would hang around their house at dinnertime hoping that Harriet would invite me in to dinner, which she usually did. Sometimes their daughter Persis would be there, who is now, of course, the dean of engineering here at Stanford University.

A few years later, Sid was assisting the assembly of a team of scientists for the U.S. Congress on a topic that preoccupied Cold War Washington at the time: how to base the ten-warhead MX intercontinental ballistic missile so that it could not be destroyed in a first strike by 3,000 equivalent megatons of Soviet throw-weight atop their SS-18 missile. He recommended that I join this team. Sid Drell as an inspiration to all those who worked in those years to control the danger of nuclear weapons. This was the beginning of my involvement in national security affairs.

About that time, I got to meet then-Under Secretary of Defense in charge of technology and procurement for the Department of Defense. He impressed me with how lucid and logical he was, and how well he applied technical thinking to national security problems. That Under Secretary was of course William Perry, who is also present here today, and who later because Deputy Secretary of Defense and finally Secretary of Defense in a progression that I have followed some 20 years later. Bill has been a major figure in my life, including standing in for my father at my wedding.

So I thank both Sid Drell and Bill Perry, and many, many other colleagues and friends here at CISAC, at the Freeman Spogli Institute, at the hoover Institution, and in the engineering faculty. I especially thank everyone for their warm welcome for me as a visitor earlier this academic year. Not quite two months into it, on a fateful Monday morning in November, though, duty called. And I found myself nominated by President Obama to be Secretary of Defense. 

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A sustainable future is within reach, but it won’t prevent the world from experiencing the potentially catastrophic environmental and political consequences of climate change and environmental degradation, former Secretary of Energy Steven Chu told a Stanford audience.

Chu, who shared the 1997 Nobel Prize in Physics and served as the energy secretary under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, held a seminar at CISAC on Tuesday on climate change, sustainability and security.

The consequences of the damage wrought by unsustainable resource depletion and air pollution will manifest in a hotter, more dangerous world, said the Stanford physics professor.

Average global temperatures have skyrocketed past normal levels since the Industrial Revolution and have plateaued in the last few months at the highest points in history. Chu said the plateau is likely due to it taking a long time for the lower depths of the oceans to warm up.

“There is a built-in time delay between committing damage, which we’ve already done, and feeling the true consequences. All we can say is that temperatures are likely to climb again, we just don’t know when – could be 50 to 100 years – and by how much,” said Chu.

Even if the world were to stop using coal, oil, and natural gas today, he said, it would not stop the oncoming consequences. “It’s like a long-time chain-smoker who stops smoking. Stopping does not necessarily prevent the occurrence of lung cancer.”

Chu said the battle between scientists and the tobacco industry in the 20th century is analogous to today’s conflict between scientists and the energy industries.

“A lot of what you hear from the incumbent energy industries and their representatives are the same kinds of arguments that the tobacco industry made when the science showing the harm cigarettes caused came out,” said Chu.

Ironically, the same science showing the damage cigarettes cause to health can be used to demonstrate the hazards of air pollution today.

Chu noted that a recent study found that for every 10 micrograms of pollution per cubic meter, the chances of contracting lung cancer increases 36 percent. This lends alarming perspective to pollution in places such as China and India.

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The U.S. Embassy in Beijing tracks air pollution levels daily.

“The average level of air pollution was 194 micrograms per cubic meter. So it’s possible that breathing the average air in Beijing is equivalent to smoking a pack of cigarettes a day,” he said. “Even if it’s a third of that, it’s still really bad. But again, there is going to be a lag time between now and a possible rash of deaths by lung cancer.

In addition to causing large-scale health crises, global warming and environmental degradation may exacerbate, or even cause, potential conflicts between countries.

“I think water insecurity concerns me more than even rising sea levels,” said Chu, noting that today’s conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa are exacerbated by water insecurity.

“India is already nervous that China will direct water runoff from the Himalayas to water-starved Northern China and away from India or Bangladesh, which are also water-starved,” he said. “India is also concerned that millions of Bangladeshis could become environmental refugees and start streaming into India.”

Chu recalled that when he was energy secretary, one of his biggest climate-change allies was the Department of Defense

“They will be the ones called on to help with those stresses and they see serious geopolitical risks due to climate change,” he said.

Despite the dangers ahead, Chu is optimistic about great strides in sustainable technology.

Chu and some of his colleagues studied a phenomenon that may bode well for creating a more environmentally friendly economy: putting efficiency standards on electronic appliances, which eventually could lead to a decline in the cost of appliances.

In addition to economical energy standards, new and cheaper green energy technology is within sight. Chu is working with Stanford Professor Yi Cui on creating a lithium-sulfur battery that may be significantly lighter than the current electric batteries used by cars such as Tesla and charge 200 miles in 10 minutes.

Additionally, wind energy is set to become cheaper than natural gas. Chu said that in the Midwest, where the wind is best and cheapest, contracts are selling anywhere between 2.5 and 3 cents per kilowatt-hour. If you build a new natural gas plant, it would be about 5 cents per kilowatt-hour.

“To be fair, wind does have the benefit of a production tax credit and if you take that away, wind would be somewhere around 5.5 cents per kilowatt-hour. But I think within the next dozen years wind will, on its own, be cheaper than natural gas,” he said.

Solar is even more surprising, said Chu. In July 2008, contracts were going for 18 to 20 cents per kilowatt-hour. In Texas in 2014, two contracts were signed one for 5 cents and the other for 4.8 cents per kilowatt-hour. Solar has the advantage of being scalable and the amount of solar resources available around the world is substantial.

“There’s plenty of solar energy available to power the entire world several times over,” he said.

Nonetheless, public policy nudges are still needed.

“There is still no serious discussion in the U.S. about creating a national grid with long distance transmission lines, which will be necessary for a sustainable future. But before that can happen, the campaign by incumbent industries to discredit and doubt climate science has to be defeated.”

Retired Army Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry stood before a team of soldiers preparing to deploy to Afghanistan. Their mission would be quite different from the ones he led in the South Asian country during the height of the war.

The officers of the U.S. Army’s 3rd Bridge Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division, in Fort Campbell, Ky., would soon be leading a team of about 2,000 soldiers to provide operational support and advise Afghan national forces as the U.S.-led Coalition forces withdraw and the country takes over the battle against the Taliban.

“I spoke to them about the history of the U.S. diplomatic, development and military activities in Afghanistan since 9/11,” said Eikenberry, now the William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation.

Eikenberry was a military commander in Afghanistan from 2002-2003 and then again from 2005-2009. He would later serve as U.S. ambassador to Kabul from 2009 to 2011.

Col. J.B. Vowell, a former CISAC Senior Military Fellow (2012-2013), was leading the brigade, which deployed in late January for a nine-month tour. He had invited Eikenberry to speak to his troops, having met him while he was at Stanford.

The mission of his tour is to advise and protect advisors and, if necessary, support Afghan forces in extreme combat situations. Though a brigade typically has 5,000 soldiers, Vowell’s smaller, tailored team is a sharp departure from previous missions.

Former CISAC military fellow and U.S. Army Col. J.B. Vowell, left, and Ret. U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, at Fort Campbell, Ky., on Jan. 13, 2015.

“So they’ve had to think hard about not only their advisory role, but also who they will protect their own forces with, and what to do if they are called upon to support Afghan forces in an exceptionally dire situation,” said Eikenberry.

These types of operations are part of the central challenges facing the U.S. military today, Eikenberry said, adding that Vowell’s time as a senior military fellow at CISAC helped prepare him for his mission.

“The resources available at FSI help prepare officers for these challenges,” said Eikenberry, who is also an affiliate of FSI's Center on Democracy Development and the Rule of Law. “CISAC does very sophisticated studies in contemporary security problems; CDDRL does very interesting work in the development of political institutions in difficult environments. These are resources military fellows can draw upon.”

Military Fellow Program launched in 2009

When former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry returned to Stanford after his service in Washington, he and current Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter started the Preventative Defense Project at Harvard and Stanford. The project focuses on forging nongovernmental, Track II security partnerships with Russia and its neighbors, engaging China and addressing the lethal legacy of Cold War weapons of mass destruction.

Deborah Gordon, executive director of the project and manager of the military fellows program, said Perry believed that bringing in acting military officers to learn more about strategic defense policy would aid the mission to prevent future threats to global security. 

“Perry started asking the various heads of the military services to allow a fellow to come to CISAC and be more broadly engaged in the university,” she said.

The Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), the umbrella organization for CISAC and other research centers, hosted its first senior military fellow in 2009.  FSI now hosts five, three from the Air Force and two from the Army. Fellows go through a rigorous selection process and attend Stanford for one year to conduct research.

CISAC Senior Research Scholar and retired U.S. Army Col. Joseph Felter helped secure the Army officers for the first fellowships. He had attended Stanford as an active duty officer from 2002-2005 and has a Ph.D. in political science from the university. 

“When I came back to do a War College fellowship from 08-09, the only sponsored spots were at Hoover,” he said, referring to the Hoover Institution at Stanford. “It’s a great institution but it struck me as a bit insulated from the rest of the campus. With the support of the Army War College I volunteered to take the lead on putting together a proposal.”

He persuaded the War College that there was demand for fellows and they approved the establishment of two new fellowships at CISAC. Felter, Gordon and others at CISAC knew that civilian scholars and students at the university would in turn benefit from interacting with active-duty officers for their perspective on the U.S. military around the world.

Among the first fellows were Viet Luong, who is now a one-star general and deputy commander of the 1st Cavalry Division, and Charlie Miller, who is working directly for Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey as his senior advisor.

Former CISAC Military Fellow Viet Luong, now a one-star general, teaches a simulation class during his 2011-2012 fellowship.

In addition to meeting current and former government and military leaders and conducting research, fellows participate in Stanford classrooms and seminars.

Army Lt. Col. Dennis Heaney is a senior military fellow at CISAC this academic year. His research focuses on the strategic policy of the Regionally Aligned Forces (RAF), soldiers from all units of the U.S. Armed Forces that support combatant commands.

Heaney is working to delineate out the costs of altering the role of conventional forces - traditionally trained to fight against other national militaries - to fight unconventional wars that are not restricted to any particular geographic zone.

“The real dilemma is conventional Army forces are made for land warfare against other forces. They are not really cut out for irregular warfare,” Heaney said of the RAF. “When you try to do regional engagement it takes you away from your main mission. I may help you, but there is an opportunity cost. Trying to prepare for both regular and irregular warfare takes away from each one. It’s kind of a zero-sum game. So I’m trying to critique that and make recommendations.”

Heaney has been in the Army for 24 years. He started out in the infantry as an officer and then entered the Special Forces in 1997. He is likely to deploy to Afghanistan with the Special Operations Joint Task Force after he completes his fellowship.

“The biggest benefit of being a fellow at Stanford is exposure to high-level folks like Karl Eikenberry, Gen. James Mattis at Hoover, Adm. James Ellis, and former Defense Secretaries William Perry and George Schultz, as well as current Secretary of Defense Ash Carter when he was here for a short time,” Heaney said.

Carter was a visiting scholar at FSI last year, until he became the nation’s 25th secretary of defense in February.

Heaney participated in CISAC’s signature class, “International Security in a Changing World,” playing the role of military commander during simulations that are the hallmark of the class.

“One simulation was about deciding between ground or air options for a high-value target in Afghanistan,” Heaney said. “Last week we did a simulation about the Islamic State and what options exist.”

Even after they leave, military fellows maintain close ties to Stanford.

Eikenberry is slated to teach a course next term about America’s post-9/11 intervention in Afghanistan.

“I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to Skype-in to Col. Vowell’s headquarters,” he said. “I think it would be powerful for the students, after reading essay after essay about the Afghanistan intervention, to actually talk to one of our military leaders currently operating there on the ground.”

There is an effort underway to expand the military fellows program beyond FSI.

“We envision a future where military fellows can embed in the professional schools, like law and business, or in departments like engineering and political science – and even private tech companies like Google and Palantir,” Gordon said. “We want to engage Stanford and Silicon Valley in helping solve our national security problems.”

Joshua Alvarez was a CISAC Honors Student in the 2011-2012 academic year.