Innovation
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Abstract: What are the consequences of the emergence of robotics, big data, and artificial intelligence for international politics? Are these new technologies going to promote instability and conflict, as many warn, or are they going to reinforce U.S. military primacy? In particular, will China be able to gain and eventually exploit the unfolding technological revolution - the so-called Second Machine age - or are such concerns exaggerated? The literature in political science and international relations theory has either largely neglected technology and technological innovation, or simply assumed that technology is a substitute for labor that reduces countries' constraints to go to war. Drawing from the scholarship in economics and management, in this article we look at technology in terms of a set complements and nodes-in-the-network. Thus, while technological innovation reduces the prices of some goods or tasks, it simultaneously makes their complementary assets more difficult to procure (through an increase in the demand). The resulting distributional effects, we argue, explain why actors will benefit unevenly from technological change. We test our theoretical insights by looking at seapower in the first and in the emerging second machine age: respectively, the time of the steam engine, steel hulls, quick-firing long-range guns and the telegraph; as well as the unfolding era of neural networks, fast processors and real-time communications. Our preliminary empirical results corroborate our framework, namely that the effects of technological change are much more complex than the literature acknowledges and highlights the challenges countries will have to face in the military realm during the second machine age.

Speaker biosAndrea Gilli is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School of Harvard University and a former Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation of Stanford University. Andrea has conducted research for several organizations, including the European Union Institute for Security Studies, RUSI in London and the Office of Net Assessment of the U.S. Department of Defense. He holds a Ph.D. in social and political science from the European University Institute, an MSc from the London School of Economics and Political Science and a B.A. from the University of Turin.


Mauro Gilli is a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies of ETH-Zurich (Switzerland). During the academic year 2015-16, he was a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Dickey Center for International Understanding of Dartmouth College. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from Northwestern University, an MA from SAIS-Johns Hopkins and a B.A. from the University of Turin.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Mauro Gilli Center for Security Studies of ETH-Zurich
Seminars
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Abstract: As the orbital space around earth becomes increasingly crowded, there is an increasing need to capture and manipulate objects ranging from satellites and antennas to “uncooperative” space debris. Robots have been proposed as a solution for clearing debris and manipulating objects in space. However, many of the traditional techniques used for robotic grasping and manipulation will not work. Gecko-inspired adhesives are promising technology, as they work in vacuum, at high and low temperatures, and do not require special hand-holds or other fixtures. Tests in microgravity and in the International Space station have shown that “gecko grippers” are a viable option for eliminating space debris in low Earth orbit and for enhancing missions in space.

Speaker Bio: Professor Mark Cutkosky applies analyses, simulations, and experiments to the design and control of robotic hands, tactile sensors, and devices for human/computer interaction. In manufacturing, his work focuses on design tools for rapid prototyping.

Mark Cutkosky Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University
Seminars
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Abstract: Somebody once said, “What a damn fool can do for a dollar, an engineer can do for a nickel.” Thinking about cost as an engineering constraint brings new life to ideas. This is what makes the difference between an idea influencing a hundred people or a billion. With our planet literally teeming with problems (ecological, health and social), it’s time to take cost constraints into serious consideration. As physicists, we like to make stuff. We use these skills (and field work) to design solutions for extremely resource constrained settings, specially in the field of global health. I will discuss our current work from field diagnostics to high-throughput vector ecology and hands on science education and talk about it’s implication in a global context. I will also discuss outcomes, and lessons from a global experiment - Foldscope (a 50 cent origami microscope); where we shipped 50,000 origami microscopes around the world (130+) countries enabling curious users to discover and explore the microscopic world surrounding them. 

About the Speaker: Manu Prakash is an assistant professor in bioengineering. He leads a curiosity driven research group, focused on technological interventions in extreme resource-poor settings, tackling global public health problems. A physicist and a prolific inventor, his inventions include a 50 cent “print-and-fold” paper microscope, a $5 chemistry lab, a computer that works by moving water droplets in a magnetic fields, and Oscan, a 3-D printed smartphone add-on that helps diagnose oral carcinomas responsible for 40% of cancer-related deaths in India. Professor Prakash has been distinguished as a Frederick E. Terman Fellow (2011-2013), a Pew Scholar (2013-2017), a top innovator under 35 by MIT Technology Review (2014) and in the Brilliant 10 by Popular Science (2014). Born in Meerut, India, Prakash earned a BTech in computer science and engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur before moving to the United States. He did his master’s and PhD at MIT before founding the Prakash Lab at Stanford.

Manu Prakash Assistant Professor of Bioengineering Stanford University
Seminars

The Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) addresses critical challenges to international security through methodologically rigorous, evidence-based analyses of insurgency, civil war and other sources of politically motivated violence. The project is comprised of leading scholars from across the country from a variety of academic disciplines. ESOC aims to empower high quality of conflict analysis by creating and maintaining a repository of micro-level data across multiple conflict cases and making these data available to a broader community of scholars and policy analysts.

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Africa (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2013): USAID and the UN's World Food Program have proposed strategies for allocating ready-to-use (therapeutic and supplementary) foods to children in developing countries. Analysis is needed to investigate whether there are better alternatives. We use a longitudinal data set of 5657 children from Bwamanda to construct a statistical model that tracks each child's height and weight  throughout the first five years of life. We embed this model into an optimization framework that chooses which individual children should receive food based on a child's sex, age, height and weight, to minimize the mean number of disability-adjusted life years per child subject to a budget constraint. Our proposed policy compares favorably to those proposed by the aid groups. Time permitting, we will also discuss a recent analysis of a nutrition program in Guatemala that quantifies the age dependence in the impact of supplementary food, and develops a food allocation policy that exploits this age dependence and reduces child stunting.

India: Motivated by India's nationwide biometric program for social inclusion, we analyze verification (i.e., one-to-one matching) in the case where we possess 12 similarity scores (for 10 fingerprints and two irises) between a resident's biometric images at enrollment and his biometric images during his first verification. At subsequent verifications, we allow individualized strategies based on these 12 scores: we acquire a subset of the 12 images, get new scores for this subset that quantify the similarity to the corresponding enrollment images, and use the likelihood ratio to decide whether a resident is genuine or an imposter. Compared to the policy currently used in India, our proposed policy provides a five-log (i.e., 100,000-fold) reduction in the false reject rate while only increasing the mean delay from 31 to 38 seconds.

A full speaker bio is available on CISAC's website. 

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Graduate School of Business
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5015

(650) 724-1676 (650) 725-0468
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Jeffrey S. Skoll Professor of Management Science
CISAC Affiliated Faculty Member
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Lawrence Wein is the Jeffrey S. Skoll Professor of Management Science at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and an affiliated faculty member at CISAC. After getting a PhD in Operations Research from Stanford University in 1988, he spent 14 years at the Sloan School of Management at MIT, where he was the DEC Leaders for Manufacturing Professor of Management Science. His research interests include mathematical models in operations management, medicine and biology.

Since 2001, he has analyzed a variety of homeland security problems. His homeland security work includes four papers in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, on an emergency response to a smallpox attack, an emergency response to an anthrax attack, a biometric analysis of the US-VISIT Program, and an analysis of a bioterror attack on the milk supply. He has also published the Washington Post op-ed "Unready for Anthrax" (2003) and the New York Times op-ed "Got Toxic Milk?", and has written papers on port security, indoor remediation after an anthrax attack, and the detention and removal of illegal aliens.

For his homeland security research, Wein has received several awards from the International Federation of Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), including the Koopman Prize for the best paper in military operations research, the INFORMS Expository Writing Award, the INFORMS President’s Award for contributions to society, the Philip McCord Morse Lectureship, the Frederick W. Lanchester Prize for best research publication, and the George E. Kimball Medal. He was Editor-in-Chief of Operations Research from 2000 to 2005, and was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 2009.   

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Lawrence Wein Jeffrey S. Skoll Professor of Management Science; CISAC Affiliated Faculty Member Speaker
Seminars
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About the Topic: The cyber security landscape has seen dramatic changes in recent years with the advent and evolution of new, growing, and ever-present adversaries. As targeted attacks and advanced adversaries continue to evolve and become increasingly sophisticated, it becomes difficult to keep pace and stay protected. Existing security technologies are incapable of identifying determined adversaries and protecting your intellectual property. Enterprises must combat these threats with targeted attack detection, prevention, and monitoring. By leveraging big data technologies and security intelligence, companies can proactively respond to advanced threats while also gaining the ability to hunt, query, and gain insight into all activity across the enterprise.

About the Speaker: Serial entrepreneur George Kurtz co-founded CrowdStrike, a cutting-edge, big data, security technology company focused on helping enterprises and governments protect their most sensitive intellectual property and national security information. Kurtz is an internationally recognized security expert, author, entrepreneur, and speaker. He has more than 20 years of experience in the security space, including extensive experience driving revenue growth and scaling small and large organizations. His entrepreneurial background and ability to commercialize nascent technologies has enabled him to drive innovation throughout his career by identifying market trends and correlating them with customer feedback, resulting in rapid growth for the businesses he has run.

His prior roles at McAfee, a $3-billion security company, include Worldwide Chief Technology O­cer and GM, as well as SVP of Enterprise. Prior to joining McAfee, Kurtz started Foundstone in October 1999 as the founder and CEO responsible for recruiting the other six founding team members. Foundstone, a world wide security products and services company, had one of the leading incident response practices in the industry, and was acquired by McAFee in October of 2004. He also authored the best-selling security book of all time, Hacking Exposed: Network Security Secrets & Solutions.

CISAC Conference Room

George Kurtz President/CEO & Co-Founder, CrowdStrike Speaker
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Beth Duff-Brown
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HOMOSHA, ETHIOPIA - Mohammed Musa, the leader of a small village in western Ethiopia, says hundreds of refugees have crept into his village of 150 mud-and-bamboo huts to steal their goats and chickens. And cut down their trees.

The 33-year-old father of six feels for the thousands of Sudanese who have fled years of fighting in their homeland. But the Ethiopian tradition of opening its arms to African neighbors only extends so far.  

“Regardless of the support from our community, they are very aggressive,” Musa tells Stanford student Devorah West, the two sitting on a rattan mat beneath a mango tree, as donkeys bray and children gather to observe the foreigners.

“They have had such a heavy impact on the environment,” Musa says of the 9,400 refugees, rubbing the deep vertical tribal scars on his cheeks; marks of strength and courage. “They keep extending the camp and taking the land from us.”

And cutting down the trees: coffee, acacia, mango and eucalyptus.

West traveled to the western border of Ethiopia to talk to refugees and villagers on the outskirts of the refugee camps about how the two communities might work and learn together in vocational centers and schools between their camps and villages.

She came away dogged by one word.

“Firewood,” she says. “The bane of every conversation on this trip.”

West, a master’s student in international policy studies, traveled to the camps on a research trip for the Stanford Law School class, “Rethinking Refugee Communities.”

“Our project is aimed at really transforming the perceptions of refugees and trying to highlight the benefits of a shared community,” West says. “And not addressing the conflict over firewood I think could be a real weakness in our project.”

She learned women favor firewood over any other fuel as it complements centuries of traditional home cooking. Men see it as a commodity they don’t want to give away or, if they’re refugees, can’t pay for. The dispute over firewood led to the arrests of refugees outside one of the camps West visited; it has led to the rapes of thousands of women and girls across the continent as they stray from camps to look for wood.

“While the communities did by and large get along, tension was definitely created around the issue of firewood,” she says. “Firewood. Firewood. Firewood. This constantly came up in conversations with refugees, the host community, the local administrations and the Ethiopian government.”

So it’s back to the white boards, West says, where her team would now incorporate the firewood conundrum into the brainstorming about shared places.

Firewood. The bane of every conversation."

Stanford-UN collaboration

West, another second-year IPS student and two computer science undergrads spent 10 days in the Horn of Africa country in March as part of a collaboration between Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Their class was co-taught by law professor and CISAC co-director Tino Cuéllar and Leslie Witt of the Palo Alto-based global design firm, IDEO. They challenged two-dozen students to explore ideas that might help the UN protect and support the more than 42 million refugees, internally displaced and stateless people worldwide.

 

West’s team was charged with going outside the camps and thinking about ways the surrounding communities could benefit from the camp infrastructure – schools, health clinics and water treatment systems, for example – while curbing the impact of thousands of foreigners suddenly setting up camp in their back yards.

A similar trip is currently underway with CISAC's Associate Director for Programs, Elizabeth A. Gardner, Stanford management science and engineering graduate student Aparna Surendra, and Ennead architect Jeff Geisinger, whose Tumblr blog follows their journey.  

The students in Ethiopia visited the UN’s Sherkole and Bambasi refugee camps and their surrounding communities along the border with Sudan. Most of the refugees are from the isolated state of Blue Nile, where conflict broke out between the Sudanese military and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North in September 2011, several months after South Sudan seceded. Since then, nearly 300,000 Sudanese have been displaced; 22,000 are sheltered in the two Ethiopian camps.

Open Arms

Ethiopia is extremely proud of its open-door policy toward people fleeing persecution and conflict. During their initial briefings in the capital, Addis Ababa, the students were told repeatedly that the country’s first refugees were followers of Prophet Mohammed in the 7th century and then, much later, black Jews from Israel and Armenian genocide victims. The country once known as Abyssinia was never colonized and Ethiopia considers itself the beneficent Big Brother of the continent.

“We have centuries-old traditions of receiving refugees; it is part of our culture,” Ato Ayalew, the head of the Ethiopian government’s Administration for Refugee Affairs, told the students. “We provide our land. But our sacrifice is great – because you cannot replace the environmental degradation.”

Kellie Leeson, the deputy program director for the Horn of Africa for the International Rescue Committee, joined the students on their trip. The IRC, which partners with the UN in many of its camps, facilitated the student visit to the camps.

Leeson asks the Homosha village head whether the Homoshans have benefitted from the camp infrastructure, such as the IRC’s water treatment plant and pumps. Under Ethiopian law, every program targeted for the refugees must have a component that benefits the host community as well, so the IRC’s water distribution for the camp includes pipes to the village. The host community also has access to the new health clinic and school erected on the western edge of the camp.

 

Musa concedes the water is a plus and some children are attending the camp school.

Still, he says, “The impact outweighs the benefits.”

Musa would like to learn the superior gardening skills from those refugees coming from the Great Lakes region, such as those from Congo. He hastens to add, “But they should not be given any more of our land.”

Outside the other camp about 70 miles south of Sherkole, villagers from Bambasi tell the students how they ran into the dirt road that runs by their thatched huts to greet the more than 12,660 refugees who streamed into the new camp last year.

“The market has brought us together and we hope to have new friendships,” says Romia Abdullah Razak, a 16-year-old girl who ducks into the back of her hut to put on gold earrings before talking to the students. “They seem to be very nice people.”

Nice, until the women came looking for firewood.

The local village militia, paid by the Ethiopian government, rounded up hundreds of refugee women and jailed them when they were caught chopping down trees. They were given warnings and sent back to the camp, but the incident prompted the UNHCR to speed up distribution of kerosene stoves.

Takeaways

West says that beyond the distress over firewood, she is heartened to see projects benefitting both refugee and host communities. The UNHCR is constructing a hospital on the edge of Bambasi, as well as a vocational school where refugees and villagers alike can learn metal work and carpentry.

“The UNHCR is also hoping that providing skills for both the refugees and the host community to help with the economic development of the community and provide refugees with skills they can use when they return home – skills that can help them rebuild their country,” she says. “The challenge, as always, is money and whether they’ll have enough funding for this endeavor.”

She learned that project funding is typically held hostage to annual grant renewals, which undermines critical long-term planning by the UNHCR and leads to a hodgepodge of projects that often go unfinished.

“Shared spaces should be the default for long-term UNHCR planning,” she says.

West, who gets her master’s in this June, is leaning toward a career in corporate social responsibility. She believes companies are part of the solution, through philanthropic work, yes, but also by linking the needs of the refugees with the continued penetration of their products and services.

“I think there’s a really big opportunity for private companies to be thinking about innovation in these camps,” she said. “They have greater funding flexibility, face less of the bureaucratic challenges that are a constant at UNHCR – and they have the ability to really think outside the box.”

 

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Jon Lindsay Research Fellow Speaker IGCC
Timothy Junio Cybersecurity Fellow Speaker CISAC
Jonathan Mayer Cybersecurity Fellow Commentator CISAC
Andrew K. Woods Cybersecurity Fellow Commentator CISAC
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