Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

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Reid Pauly is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brown University and the Dean’s Assistant Professor of Nuclear Security and Policy at the Watson School of International and Public Affairs. He studies nuclear proliferation and nuclear strategy, coercion, and wargaming. Pauly is the author of The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma (Cornell University Press, 2025). His scholarship has also been published in International Security, International Studies Quarterly, the European Journal of International Relations, and Foreign Affairs. Pauly earned his Ph.D. from MIT and has held fellowships at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, the Schmidt Futures International Strategy Forum, and Dartmouth College’s Dickey Center for International Understanding. 

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Xinru Ma’s research focuses on nationalism, great power politics, and East Asian security with a methodological focus on formal and computational methods. More broadly, Xinru’s research encompasses three main objectives: Substantively, she aims to better theorize and enhance cross-country perspectives on critical phenomena such as nationalism and its impact on international security; Methodologically, she strives to improve measurement and causal inference based on careful methodologies, including formal modeling and computational methods like natural language processing; Empirically, she challenges prevailing assumptions that inflate the perceived risk of militarized conflicts in East Asia, by providing original data and analysis rooted in local knowledge and regional perceptions.

She is the co-author of Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations (Columbia University Press, 2024). Her work has been published in the Journal of East Asian Studies, The Washington Quarterly, the Journal of Global Security Studies, and the Journal of European Public Policy, and in edited volumes via Palgrave. 

At SNAPL, Xinru will lead the research group in collaborative projects that focus on US-Asia relations. One of the projects will contrast the rhetoric and debates in US politics surrounding the historical phenomenon of "Japan bashing" and the current perception of a "China threat.” By applying automated text analysis and qualitative analysis to public opinion data and textual data from various sources, such as congressional hearings and presidential speeches, this project uncovers the similarities, differences, and underlying factors driving the narratives and public discourse surrounding US-Asia relations. She will also provide mentorship to student research assistants and research associates. 

Before joining SNAPL, Xinru was an assistant professor at the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University, where she led the Political Science Research Lab, a lab committed to closing the gender gap in computational methods and political science research by offering big-data methods training and professionalization workshops to students. Before that, Xinru was a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University (2019-2020) and a pre-doctoral fellow at the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University (2018-2019). In 2023, Xinru was selected as an International Strategy Forum fellow by Schmidt Futures, an initiative that recognizes the next generation of problem solvers with extraordinary potential in geopolitics, innovation, and public leadership. 

Research Scholar, APARC Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab
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Dr. Melissa K. Griffith is a Lecturer in Technology and National Security at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) as well as affiliated faculty with the Alperovitch Institute and a senior advisor to the Emerging Technologies Initiative. From cybersecurity to tech security, she works at the intersection between technology, national security, and economic statecraft with a specialization in cybersecurity, semiconductors, and machine learning/artificial intelligence. Prior to joining Johns Hopkins SAIS, Griffith was the Director of Emerging Technology and National Security and a Senior Program Associate with the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program (STIP); a Pre-Doctoral Fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC); a Visiting Scholar at George Washington University's Institute for International Science and Technology Policy (IISTP); a Visiting Research Fellow at the Research Institute on the Finnish Economy (ETLA) in Helsinki, Finland; and a Visiting Researcher at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) in Brussels, Belgium. Griffith holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley and a B.A. in International Relations from Agnes Scott College.

For additional information (including a comprehensive list of publications, prior positions and affiliations, presentations and public appearances, and teaching experience) please visit www.melissakgriffith.com.

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At the end of July, Dan Coats, the U.S. director of national intelligence (DNI), announced his resignation. When he leaves office on August 15, the U.S. intelligence community will be left with two crises to confront. One is obvious and immediate: how to protect the objectivity and professionalism of the intelligence agencies against the rising tide of politicization by the White House. The second is more hidden and longer-term, but just as important: how to transform these agencies to cope with the dizzying technological breakthroughs that, as Michael Morell and I argued in an essay for this magazine earlier this year (“Spies, Lies, and Algorithms,” May/June 2019), are empowering U.S. adversaries. The next DNI must tackle both crises to safeguard the nation.

 

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Foreign Affairs
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Amy Zegart
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Recent discoveries in psychology and neuroscience have improved our understanding of why our decision making processes fail to match standard social science assumptions about rationality. As researchers such as Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and Richard Thaler have shown, people often depart in systematic ways from the predictions of the rational actor model of classic economic thought because of the influence of emotions, cognitive biases, an aversion to loss, and other strong motivations and values. These findings about the limits of rationality have formed the basis of behavioral economics, an approach that has attracted enormous attention in recent years.

This collection of essays applies the insights of behavioral economics to the study of nuclear weapons policy. Behavioral economics gives us a more accurate picture of how people think and, as a consequence, of how they make decisions about whether to acquire or use nuclear arms. Such decisions are made in real-world circumstances in which rational calculations about cost and benefit are intertwined with complicated emotions and subject to human limitations. Strategies for pursuing nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation should therefore, argue the contributors, account for these dynamics in a systematic way. The contributors to this collection examine how a behavioral approach might inform our understanding of topics such as deterrence, economic sanctions, the nuclear nonproliferation regime, and U.S. domestic debates about ballistic missile defense. The essays also take note of the limitations of a behavioral approach for dealing with situations in which even a single deviation from the predictions of any model can have dire consequences.

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Athens : The University of Georgia Press, [2019]
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Jeffrey Knopf
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The world is experiencing an unprecedented period of geopolitical change and technological disruption. How should we rethink U.S. national security and defense in an era of intensifying great power competition? What principles should guide US policy and presidents in the future?

 

Drell Lecture Recording: https://youtu.be/y8a307Sttjc

 

Drell Lecture Transcript: Click here to view

 

Speaker's Biography: Michèle Flournoy is Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Co- Founder and Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), where she currently serves on the board.

Michèle served as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy from February 2009 to February 2012. She was the principal advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the formulation of national security and defense policy, oversight of military plans and operations, and in National Security Council deliberations.

Michèle is a former member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, the CIA Director’s External Advisory Board, and the Defense Policy Board. She’s currently a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Aspen Strategy Group, is a Senior Fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and sits on the Honorary Advisory Committee of The Leadership Council for Women in National Security. Michèle serves on the boards of Booz Allen Hamilton, Amida Technology Solutions, The Mission Continues, Spirit of America, CARE, the U.S. Naval Academy Foundation.


Hauck Auditorium, David and Joan Traitel Building of Hoover Institution435 Lasuen Mall, Stanford, CA, 94305
Michèle Flournoy Co-Founder and Managing Partner WestExec Advisors
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Seminar recording: https://youtu.be/A9ptoz_r0HY

 

Abstract:

Images of children on the battlefield or posing for a ‘last will and testament’ poster before a suicide operation suggest the extent to which ISIS has weaponized children. The use of children in terrorist propaganda has become a regular feature of their strategic messaging and has accelerated over time. While tasking children with a variety of support functions – scouts, drummers, or couriers is not new, the ways in which terrorist organizations have deployed children has evolved. The exploitation of children represents a relatively new development, both tactically and strategically. Attacks in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria show that the median age of suicide bombers is decreasing. This presentation will provide evidence that terrorist groups have increased their use of children on the front lines despite assertions to the contrary and that important variation exists across groups based on location, country of origin, and the gender of the children with a particular emphasis on ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

 

Speaker's Biography:

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Mia Bloom is Professor of Communication at Georgia State University. She conducts ethnographic field research in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia and speaks eight languages. She has authored books and articles on terrorism and violent extremism including Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (2005), Living Together After Ethnic Killing (2007) and Bombshell: Women and Terror (2011). Bloom is a former term member of the Council on Foreign Relations and has held appointments at Princeton, Cornell, Harvard and McGill Universities. Bloom’s newest book is Small Arms: Children and Terror (2019). Bloom has a PhD in political science from Columbia University, a Masters in Arab Studies from Georgetown University and a Bachelor’s degree from McGill in Russian, Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies.

Mia Bloom Professor of Communication Georgia State University
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Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering MARTIN HELLMAN recently served as the Heidelberg Lecturer at the 69th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting (#LINO19).

The annual, week-long event occurs each summer on Germany’s Lindau Island. Nobel Laureates are invited to the meeting, along with selected young scientists. The Heidelberg Lecture is given by a Heidelberg Laureate—the winners of the top prizes in mathematics and computer science. Hellman became a Heidelberg Laureate when he received the ACM Turing Award in 2015 with fellow cybersecurity innovator WHITFIELD DIFFIE, a consulting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, for making critical contributions to modern cryptography.

Hellman’s lecture, “The Technological Imperative for Ethical Evolution,” called for scientists and laureates to accelerate the trend toward more ethical behavior. Hellman drew parallels between global and personal relationships as a foundation to build trust and security – regardless of past adversarial history. He shared eight lessons from his own personal and professional evolution.

Martin encouraged #LINO19 attendees to revisit the Mainau Declaration of 1955 and the Mainau Declaration of 2015, underscoring the efforts of prior attendees – and the responsibilities of today’s attendees – to consider global and future consequences when making decisions and to appeal to decision-makers to do the same.

Hellman’s Heidelberg Lecture is available online.

The 69th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting drew 39 laureates and 600 young scientists from 89 countries – the highest number to date. The meeting was dedicated to physics. The key topics were dark matter and cosmology, laser physics and gravitational waves.

Hellman’s recent work has focused on rethinking national security, including bringing a risk informed framework to a potential failure of nuclear deterrence and then using that approach to find surprising ways to reduce the risk. His earlier work included co-inventing public key cryptography, the technology that underlies the secure portion of the internet. Besides the ACM Turing Award, Hellman’s many honors include election to the National Academy of Engineering.

One of his recent projects is a book written with his wife, Dorothie Hellman, “A New Map for Relationships: Creating True Love at Home and Peace on the Planet,” that one reviewer said provides a “unified field theory” of peace by illuminating the connections between nuclear war, conventional war, interpersonal war and war within our own psyches.

 

 

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Martin Hellman speaking at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings. | Julia Nimke/Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings
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Seminar Recording: https://youtu.be/W7EFBKGMXkI

 

Abstract: If before 2014 Russia was widely dismissed by the international community as a regional power whose global influence had died with the Soviet Union, its recent muscle flexing abroad has shown that reports of its death as a global power have been greatly exaggerated. From its seizure of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and military deployment in Syria in 2015 to cyber interventions in a number of democratic countries, most notably the alleged interference in the United States elections in 2016, Russia has reasserted itself as a major global power. This has taken many analysts and policy makers by surprise. But perhaps Russia’s status as a “phoenix state” should not have been unanticipated,

A common argument has been that Russia has a weak hand, but plays it well. The book on which this talk is based argues that Russia’s cards may not be as weak as we in the West think they are—that instead, the West might be playing bridge, while Russia plays poker.  Too great an emphasis has been placed on traditional, realist means of power (like the strength of Russia's economy, its population, and its military) and this has led scholars and policy makers to discount Russia’s ability to influence international politics. In important ways, Russia has reestablished itself on the global stage, doing so as a great disrupter rather than a great power. It doesn’t have as much by way of means in realist terms as the United States or China, but it does have the ability to exercise influence, to get other countries to do what they might not otherwise do. This is because Russia today is unencumbered by a domestic political system that might exercise a brake on the ambitions of the current regime. It doesn’t have to be a great power, but it can be good enough to do a great deal to alter the post war global order. Indeed, it already has.

 

Click

to read chapter one. 

 

Speaker's Biography:

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Kathryn Stoner is the Deputy Director at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and a Senior Fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, as well as the Deputy Director of the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy at Stanford University. She teaches in the Department of Political Science at Stanford, and in the Program on International Relations, as well as in the Ford Dorsey Program. Prior to coming to Stanford in 2004, she was on the faculty at Princeton University for nine years, jointly appointed to the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School for International and Public Affairs. At Princeton she received the Ralph O. Glendinning Preceptorship awarded to outstanding junior faculty. She also served as a Visiting Associate Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, and an Assistant Professor of Political Science at McGill University. She has held fellowships at Harvard University as well as the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC. 

In addition to many articles and book chapters on contemporary Russia, she is the author or co-editor of five books: Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective, written and edited with Michael A. McFaul (Johns Hopkins 2013);  Autocracy and Democracy in the Post-Communist World, co-edited with Valerie Bunce and Michael A. McFaul (Cambridge, 2010);  Resisting the State: Reform and Retrenchment in Post-Soviet Russia (Cambridge, 2006); After the Collapse of Communism: Comparative Lessons of Transitions (Cambridge, 2004), coedited with Michael McFaul; and Local Heroes: The Political Economy of Russian Regional Governance (Princeton, 1997). She is currently finishing a book project entitled Resurrected? The Domestic Determinants of Russia’s Return as a Global Power that will be published in 2017.

She received a BA (1988) and MA (1989) in Political Science from the University of Toronto, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University (1995). In 2016 she was awarded an honorary doctorate from Iliad State University, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia. 

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kathryn_stoner_1_2022_v2.jpg MA, PhD

Kathryn Stoner is the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Satre Family Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). From 2017 to 2021, she served as FSI's Deputy Director. She is Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford and teaches in the Department of Political Science, the Program on International Relations, and the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy Program. She is also a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) at the Hoover Institution.

Prior to coming to Stanford in 2004, she was on the faculty at Princeton University for nine years, jointly appointed to the Department of Politics and the Princeton School for International and Public Affairs (formerly the Woodrow Wilson School). At Princeton, she received the Ralph O. Glendinning Preceptorship, awarded to outstanding junior faculty. She also served as a Visiting Associate Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and an Assistant Professor of Political Science at McGill University. She has held fellowships at Harvard University as well as the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. 

In addition to many articles and book chapters on contemporary Russia, she is the author or co-editor of six books: Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective, written and edited with Michael A. McFaul (Johns Hopkins 2013);  Autocracy and Democracy in the Post-Communist World, co-edited with Valerie Bunce and Michael A. McFaul (Cambridge, 2010);  Resisting the State: Reform and Retrenchment in Post-Soviet Russia (Cambridge, 2006); After the Collapse of Communism: Comparative Lessons of Transitions (Cambridge, 2004), coedited with Michael McFaul; and Local Heroes: The Political Economy of Russian Regional Governance (Princeton, 1997); and Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order (Oxford University Press, 2021).

She received a BA (1988) and MA (1989) in Political Science from the University of Toronto, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University (1995). In 2016, she was awarded an honorary doctorate from Ilia State University in Tbilisi, the Republic of Georgia.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Mosbacher Director, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Professor of Political Science (by courtesy), Stanford University
Senior Fellow (by courtesy), Hoover Institution
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Congratulations to CISAC honors program Class of 2019! On June 14, students in the CISAC Interschool Honors Program in International Studies graduated in a conferral of honors ceremony on the front lawn of Encina Hall.

CISAC is proud to add our 11 new graduates to our expanding list of alumni. The CISAC honors program, launched in 2001, consists of a two-week honors college program in Washington D.C., tours of government agencies, meetings with influential policy makers, and weekly seminars with CISAC faculty. Honors students are also required to research and complete an original thesis on an important national security issue. The 2019 program was co-directed by Professors Martha Crenshaw and Coit “Chip” Blacker. The occasion marked their last year teaching in the program, as both are retiring this year.

The graduates are heading to a wide variety of careers, from graduate education to investment banking. A sample of this class’s upcoming plans includes:

  • graduate degrees from Trinity College, Dublin, Harvard, Stanford, and Cambridge Universities;
  • a position on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Minority staff;
  • an assistant product manager at Schmidt Futures;
  • a reporter at Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau; and
  • an investment associate at Bridgewater Associates.
     

Several honors students also won awards for their outstanding work as undergraduates.

Philip Clark, ’19, won the Terman Award in Management Science & Engineering, the Kennedy Honors Thesis Prize, and the Hoefer Prize. The Terman Award is presented to the top five percent of each year's School of Engineering seniors. The Kennedy Prize is awarded annually to the single best thesis in each of the four areas of humanities, social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering and applied sciences. Recipients of this award have accomplished exceptionally advanced research in the field and have shown strong potential for publication in peer-reviewed scholarly works. The Hoefer Prize recognizes outstanding Stanford undergraduate writing in Writing in the Major courses

Andrew Milich, ’19, won the Terman Award in Computer Science and the William J. Perry Prize. The William J. Perry Prize is awarded by CISAC to a student for excellence in policy-relevant research in international security studies.

Kaylana Mueller-Hsia, ’19, won the John Holland Slusser World Peace Prize. The Slusser Prize is awarded by the John Holland Slusser World Peace Fund to the thesis that best demonstrates excellence in the analysis of one or more steps towards world peace.

 

Read below for more on this year’s graduates and their theses:

 


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Ken Ben Chao
Philip Clark

Climbing to “Strategic Commanding Heights”: Understanding Chinese Technology Investment in the United States

Thesis Advisor: Amy Zegart

"The rise of China ranks among the most important American foreign policy challenges. Philip’s path-breaking thesis finds that one of Beijing’s most powerful tools to secure commercial and military advantage is perfectly legal and largely overlooked: venture capital investment in American high-tech startups. The thesis creates and analyzes two original datasets linking Chinese venture capital investment to the technological priorities of the US and Chinese military. It uncovers patterns of investor ties to the Chinese Communist Party. And in two richly researched case studies, Philip develops a new theoretical model explaining when, why, and how China succeeded in surging its investment in a coordinated fashion. Philip has produced the best analysis of the topic yet written in the academy or government, and its implications are both important and unsettling."


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Marina Elmore
Alexa Corse

Election Cybersecurity: Assessing the Roles of Federalism and Partisanship

Thesis Advisor: Andrew Hall

"Securing America’s elections is one of the most pressing and salient policy challenges facing the country today. Why are we struggling to do it? A common narrative is that partisanship is to blame, but Alexa’s thesis raises important doubts about this account. Her thesis sheds light on the fiercely independent views of election administrators and their suspicion of national interventions into the electoral system, and, through a series of case studies, shows that this suspicion is likely more important than simple partisan disagreement in frustrating the federal government’s efforts to offer a unified approach to election security. In offering a masterful account of this process, Alexa’s thesis makes us rethink the problem of election security---no small feat for a thesis project, and an accomplishment she should take great pride in having achieved."


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Gabbi Fisher
Federico Derby

A Green Light at the End of Kim’s Dock? North Korea and International Cooperation on the Environment

Thesis Advisor: Siegfried Hecker

"Federico’s thesis on North Korea’s compliance with multinational environmental agreements is a tour de force. He conceived and developed a novel multispectral satellite imagery analysis technique to gather information on agreement compliance that is outside the reach of normal confirmation mechanisms in such a closed and isolated country. He combined this innovative technical approach with meticulously researched understanding of international environmental agreements to conclude that North Korea complied with such agreements when compliance supported the stability of the Kim regime. His study represents an outstanding example CISAC’s objectives of combining the best of the technical and social sciences."


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Wyatt Horan
Jake Dow

A Path Dependent Prerogative: Why British Prime Ministers Gave Up Their War Powers

Thesis Advisor: Kenneth Schultz

"Jake’s thesis explains a remarkable development.  Before 2003, the British parliament had never taken a vote to authorize the use of military force before an operation commenced; the power to start a war was held by the Crown and delegated to the prime minister.  Starting with the Iraq War in 2003, however, every use of British military force has been preceded by a parliamentary vote. By examining parliamentary debates and reports, public statements, and government documents, Jake shows how a decision made for short-term political benefit in 2003 unexpectedly led to a durable change in how war powers are wielded.  The unprecedented vote on Iraq changed beliefs about the legitimate role of parliament, leading subsequent PMs to expect political risks from acting approval. Jake’s thesis is an excellent example of careful research presented through compelling historical narrative."


Tori KellerMegan Haines

The French Fourth Republic’s Decision to Build a Bomb: Prestige, Politics, and Alliances

Thesis Advisor: Coit Blacker

"The decision by French policymakers to acquire nuclear weapons is said to reflect France’s determination to restore the country’s prestige and to assure its great-power status following its defeat and occupation in World War II.  In this carefully researched and insightful thesis, Megan presses beyond this conventional wisdom to determine what role other factors may have played in France’s decision “to go nuclear.”  She finds that while prestige did in fact constitute a kind of permissive condition, two other factors – France’s deep suspicions about the commitment of its NATO allies to come the country’s defense and the determination of conservative politicians to press ahead with nuclearization – provide a valuable lens through which to view and understand the decision.  It’s a fascinating story, told with a keen sensitivity to the highly contingent way in which the French nuclear weapons program unfolded and the many obstacles that both civilian and military decisionmakers faced in achieving their goal."


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Alexander Lubkin
Katherine Irajpanah

War Power Moves: Executive Incentives for Unilateral Action

Thesis Advisors: Condoleezza Rice and Kenneth Schultz; Robert Rakove

"Katherine’s thesis wrestles with a core challenge in today’s foreign policy debates: who has the power to wage war? If policy-makers want to know how Congress can constrain America’s growing military footprint, they will be well-served by this important piece of research. I have advised numerous theses in my career. Katherine’s is among the two or three best that I have seen in 30 years. Not only is the product good, but she has tackled it with rigor and enthusiasm. She is a superlative student and full of exceptional promise as she heads to Harvard for graduate school."


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Jian Yang Lum
Irene Kim

Keen to Screen: The European Union Response to Growing Chinese Investment

Thesis Advisors: Martha Crenshaw, Christophe Crombez

“In her Honors Thesis ‘Keen to Screen: the European Union Response to Growing Chinese Investment’ Irene Kim presents a thorough analysis of the EU’s efforts to develop a framework for the screening of foreign direct investment in the EU. The thesis examines the divergent opinions and interests that are typically at play in international politics and EU decision-making, in this case concerns for national security, protectionist impulses, the desire to grow and attract foreign investment, and free-trade economic liberalism. Irene clearly shows how the new framework represents a rather toothless compromise that reflects these rivaling concerns, and can thus be considered a glass half empty, or half full."


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Elizabeth Margolin
Andrew Milich

Free, Open-Source, and Anonymous: Why Deep Learning Regulators Are in Deep Water

Thesis Advisor: Amy Zegart

"Artificial intelligence provokes fear and wonder in equal measure – conjuring the specter of killer robots and the promise of driverless cars. Andrew’s thesis examines the spread of one aspect of AI breakthroughs: deep learning facial recognition technology. He asks two critical questions: what does the proliferation process of deep learning look like? And what can be done to prevent its malicious use? Andrew offers the first-ever analysis of deep learning proliferation. He compares deep learning to other dual-use technologies such as nuclear and chemical weapons. And he develops an award-winning technical model that undermines the accuracy of facial recognition applications. Andrew finds that past approaches like export controls are unlikely to curb the spread of deep learning, but technical countermeasures hold considerable promise to protect privacy and mitigate the risks of this technology. The thesis makes cutting-edge contributions to both engineering and policy and is poised to garner significant attention among senior U.S. officials."


Lauren NewbyKaylana Mueller-Hsia

Servers and Sovereignty: Explaining the Rise of Data Localization Laws

Thesis Advisors: Andrew Grotto, David Cohen

"Kaylana's thesis explored why some democracies mandate that certain data be stored within their national borders, despite compelling economic and other reasons for why these data localization mandates can harm their citizens and businesses. These data localization practices are becoming more common internationally, creating new challenges for governments, civil society and businesses. Kaylana made original contributions to our understanding of how notions of sovereignty, under the right conditions, can influence governments' evaluation of the pros and cons of data localization. I couldn't be prouder of the efforts she put into this thesis and the final work product."


AnhViet NguyenElizabeth Shneider

The Iranian Rubik’s Cube: Understanding the Impacts of Pressure, Engagement, and Domestic Determinants on Nuclear Negotiations with Iran

Thesis Advisors: Colin Kahl, Tess Bridgeman

"Under what conditions can states with profound conflicts of interest and deep historical enmity reach a peaceful accommodation? Elizabeth’s terrific thesis draws on a wide range of primary and secondary source material and an impressive series of interviews to explain how nuclear negotiations succeeded in producing the Iran Nuclear Deal after more than a decade of failed negotiations. She convincingly rebuts the conventional wisdom that U.S.-led sanctions were sufficient to produce a deal. Instead, she persuasively argues that it required a combination of five factors—economic pressure, broad international diplomatic isolation of Iran, a willingness to compromise, a prioritization of direct engagement, and a conducive domestic political environment in both countries—that finally produced an agreement. The absence of one or more of these factors frustrated nuclear diplomacy prior to 2013-2015 and, today, it suggests that President Trump’s current policy of “maximum pressure” toward Iran is unlikely to produce a “better deal."


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Jack Weller
Matthew Bryan Wigler

Compact and Consensus: American Foreign Policy and the Partisan Tide at the Water’s Edge

Thesis Advisor: Colin Kahl

"For decades, even as political polarization and partisanship has grown the United States, it was presumed that this divide had less impact on foreign policy than domestic affairs. Matthew’s excellent thesis questions that assumption. It draws the crucial distinction between ideological polarization, on the one hand, and affective polarization, on the other. Through detailed case studies, Matthew convincingly traces the rise and fall of U.S. foreign policy consensus and compact over the past seven decades. His analysis shows that today, neither ideological or personal clashes stop at the water’s edge, contributing to an erosion of support for liberal internationalism and a profound dysfunction in contemporary U.S. foreign policy."


 

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