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Abstract: Prison systems can play numerous roles in a society's security in terms of the separation of criminals from the general population, rehabilitation of criminals prior to reentry in society, and deterrent effects on criminal behaviors. Yet, prison systems also create a set of obligations for the state towards prisoners including responsibility for their health and healthcare and a set of related challenges in terms of infectious disease control. Densely populated with high volumes of entry, movement, exit and reentry, prison systems have historically provided breeding grounds for infectious diseases and acted as epidemic lenses with important consequences for society at large. This talk considers two health policy case studies involving infectious diseases in prisons: 1) Tuberculosis and Multidrug Resistance in the former Soviet Union; 2) Chronic Hepatitis C Virus in the United States. In both, new more expensive and efficacious technologies are evaluated in terms of their effectiveness, costs, cost-effectiveness with consideration given to affordability and the specific ethics of making such decisions for incarcerated individuals.

About the Speaker: Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, PhD, is an Assistant Professor of Medicine, a Core Faculty Member at the Centers for Health Policy/Primary Care and Outcomes Research, and a Faculty Affiliate of the Stanford Center on Longevity and Stanford Center for International Development. His research focuses on complex policy decisions surrounding the prevention and management of increasingly common, chronic diseases and the life course impact of exposure to their risk factors. In the context of both developing and developed countries including the US, India, China, and South Africa, he has examined chronic conditions including type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, human papillomavirus and cervical cancer, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C and on risk factors including smoking, physical activity, obesity, malnutrition, and other diseases themselves. He combines simulation modeling methods and cost-effectiveness analyses with econometric approaches and behavioral economic studies to address these issues. Dr. Goldhaber-Fiebert graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College in 1997, with an A.B. in the History and Literature of America. After working as a software engineer and consultant, he conducted a year-long public health research program in Costa Rica with his wife in 2001. Winner of the Lee B. Lusted Prize for Outstanding Student Research from the Society for Medical Decision Making in 2006 and in 2008, he completed his PhD in Health Policy concentrating in Decision Science at Harvard University in 2008. He was elected as a Trustee of the Society for Medical Decision Making in 2011.

Encina Hall (2nd floor)

Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert Assistant Professor of Medicine, CHP/PCOR Core Faculty Member Speaker Stanford University
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Abstract: In January 2010, inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency noticed that centrifuges at an Iranian uranium enrichment plant were failing at an unprecedented rate. The cause was a complete mystery—apparently as much to the technicians replacing the centrifuges as to the inspectors observing them.

Then, five months later, a seemingly unrelated event occurred: A computer security firm in Belarus was called in to troubleshoot some computers in Iran that were crashing and rebooting repeatedly and found some malicious code on them. At first, the firm’s analysts believed the code was simply a routine piece of malware. But as they and other experts around the world investigated, they discovered a mysterious virus of unparalleled complexity.

They had, they soon learned, stumbled upon the world’s first digital weapon. For Stuxnet, as it came to be known, was unlike any other virus or worm built before: Rather than simply hijacking targeted computers or stealing information from them, it escaped the digital realm to wreak actual, *physical *destruction on a nuclear facility.

Author Kim Zetter, a senior writer for WIRED magazine, recently published a book on Stuxnet. In this presentation, she'll tell the story about Stuxnet's planning, execution and discovery and why the attack was so unique and sophisticated. She'll also discuss the repercussions of the assault and how critical infrastructure in the U.S. is susceptible to the same kind

About the Speaker: Kim Zetter is an award-winning investigative journalist and author who covers cybersecurity, cybercrime, cyber warfare, privacy and civil liberties. She has been covering computer security and the hacking underground since 1999, most currently as a staff reporter for Wired, where she has been reporting since 2003. She was a finalist for an Investigative Reporters and Editors award in 2005 for a series of investigative pieces she wrote about the security problems with electronic voting machines and the controversial companies that make them. In 2006 she broke a story for Salon about a secret NSA room at an AT&T facility in Missouri that was believed to be  siphoning internet data from the telecom’s network operations center. In  2007 she wrote a groundbreaking three-part story for Wired on the cybercriminal underground, which exposed the world of online carding  markets and the players behind them. In 2010, she and a Wired colleague broke the story about the arrest of Bradley Manning, the former Army intelligence analyst accused of leaking millions of classified U.S. government documents to WikiLeaks. In 2011, she wrote an extensive feature about Stuxnet, a sophisticated digital weapon that was launched by the U.S. and Israel to sabotage Iran’s uranium enrichment program.  She recently completed a book on the topic.

Kim Zetter's book on Stuxnet, Countdown to Zero Day: Stuxnet and the Launch of the World's First Digital Weapon, can be purchased by following this link

Encina Hall (2nd floor)

Kim Zetter Senior Writer Speaker Wired Magazine
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Abstract: The “unsinkable” RMS Titanic sank on April 14, 1912, in the North Atlantic Ocean on its maiden voyage from Southampton, UK, to New York City.  There was no single cause for the loss of the Titanic; rather the improbable combination of errors in human design and judgment, combined with unforeseeable circumstance, led to the loss of over 1,500 lives.  The failure appears to have occurred over a range of spatial and temporal scales – from the atomic-scale processes of the embrittlement of iron rivets to global-scale fluctuations in climate and ocean currents. Regardless of the specific combination of causes, this failure in design and practice led to impressive improvements in both.  Disaster and tragedy are harsh teachers, but critical to improvement and progress.

The important question for the nuclear waste management community is: How do we learn and improve our waste management strategies in the absence of the benefit of failure? A geologic repository “operates” over a very distant time fame, and today’s scientists and engineers will never have the benefit of studying the failed system. In place of failure followed by improvements, we only can offer a general consensus on disposal strategies and their effectiveness.  However, it may well be that consensus leads to complacency and compromise, both of which may be harbingers of a failed repository.  I will discuss these issues in the context of recent accidents and the release of radioactivity at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, a geologic repository in southeastern New Mexico.

About the Speaker: Rod Ewing is the Frank Stanton Professor in Nuclear Security in the Center for International Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a Professor in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences in the School of Earth Sciences. Ewing’s research focuses on the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, mainly nuclear materials and the geochemistry of radionuclides with application to permanent geologic disposal. He is the past president of the International Union of Materials Research Societies. Ewing has written extensively on issues related to nuclear waste management and is a co-editor of Radioactive Waste Forms for the Future (1988) and Uncertainty Underground – Yucca Mountain and the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear Waste (2006). He received the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2006. In 2012, he was appointed by President Obama to chair the Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, which provides scientific and technical reviews of the Department of the Energy’s programs for the management and disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. In 2015, he will receive the Roebling Medal of the Mineralogical Society of America.

Encina Hall (2nd floor)

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, E203
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

(650) 725-8641
0
1946-2024
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Frank Stanton Professor in Nuclear Security
Professor of Geological Sciences
rodewingheadshot2014.jpg MS, PhD

      Rod Ewing was the Frank Stanton Professor in Nuclear Security and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a Professor in the Department of Geological Sciences in the School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences at Stanford University. He was also the Edward H. Kraus Distinguished University Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan, where he had faculty appointments in the Departments of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Nuclear Engineering & Radiological Sciences and Materials Science & Engineering.  He was a Regents' Professor Emeritus at the University of New Mexico, where he was a member of the faculty from 1974 to 1997. Ewing received a B.S. degree in geology from Texas Christian University (1968, summa cum laude) and M.S. (l972) and Ph.D. (l974, with distinction) degrees from Stanford University where he held an NSF Fellowship.    His graduate studies focused on an esoteric group of minerals, metamict Nb-Ta-Ti oxides, which are unusual because they have become amorphous due to radiation damage caused by the presence of radioactive elements. Over the past thirty years, the early study of these unusual minerals has blossomed into a broadly-based research program on radiation effects in complex ceramic materials.  In 2001, the work on radiation-resistant ceramics was recognized by the DOE, Office of Science – Decades of Discovery as one of the top 101 innovations during the previous 25 years. This has led to the development of techniques to predict the long-term behavior of materials, such as those used in radioactive waste disposal.

      He was the author or co-author of over 750 research publications and the editor or co-editor of 18 monographs, proceedings volumes or special issues of journals. He had published widely in mineralogy, geochemistry, materials science, nuclear materials, physics and chemistry in over 100 different ISI journals. He was granted a patent for the development of a highly durable material for the immobilization of excess weapons plutonium.  He was a Founding Editor of the magazine, Elements, which is now supported by 17 earth science societies. He was a Principal Editor for Nano LIFE, an interdisciplinary journal focused on collaboration between physical and medical scientists. In 2014, he was named a Founding Executive Editor of Geochemical Perspective Letters and appointed to the Editorial Advisory Board of Applied Physics Reviews.

      Ewing had received the Hawley Medal of the Mineralogical Association of Canada in 1997 and 2002, a Guggenheim Fellowship in 2002, the Dana Medal of the Mineralogical Society of America in 2006, the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2006, a Honorary Doctorate from the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in 2007, the Roebling Medal of the Mineralogical Society of America in 2015, Ian Campbell Medal of the American Geoscience Institute, 2015, the Medal of Excellence in Mineralogical Sciences from the International Mineralogical Association in 2015, the Distinguished Public Service Medal of the Mineralogical Society of America in 2019, and was a foreign Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. He was also a fellow of the Geological Society of America, Mineralogical Society of America, Mineralogical Society of Great Britain and Ireland, American Geophysical Union, Geochemical Society, American Ceramic Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Materials Research Society. He was elected a Fellow of the National Academy of Engineering in 2017.

      He was president of the Mineralogical Society of America (2002) and the International Union of Materials Research Societies (1997-1998). He was the President of the American Geoscience Institute (2018). Ewing had served on the Board of Directors of the Geochemical Society, the Board of Governors of the Gemological Institute of America and the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

      He was co-editor of and a contributing author of Radioactive Waste Forms for the Future (North-Holland Physics, Amsterdam, 1988) and Uncertainty Underground – Yucca Mountain and the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear Waste (MIT Press, 2006).  Professor Ewing had served on thirteen National Research Council committees and board for the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine that have reviewed issues related to nuclear waste and nuclear weapons. In 2012, he was appointed by President Obama to serve as the Chair of the Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, which is responsible for ongoing and integrated technical review of DOE activities related to transporting, packaging, storing and disposing of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste; he stepped down from the Board in 2017.

https://profiles.stanford.edu/rodney-ewing

Co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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Rodney C. Ewing Frank Stanton Professor in Nuclear Security Speaker CISAC, Stanford University
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Abstract: Snow is a vital resource for people and ecosystems. Global warming is widely projected to decrease snow accumulation throughout snow-dependent regions by 2100, potentially affecting water, food, and energy supplies, seasonal heat extremes, and wildfire risk. However, over the next few decades, the snow response is more uncertain, largely because of uncertainty about how global warming will influence precipitation. This tension—the gap between the informational requirements of adaptation and the ability of climate science to provide it—is one of the key challenges in making climate impacts assessments policy-relevant. Leveraging a unique climate model experiment, our research identifies the ‘irreducible uncertainty’ in global warming’s impact on snow in the Northern Hemisphere. These results provide a platform to discuss future water availability and security, people’s adaptive response to climate change, and both the limits and opportunities to propagating climate impacts into human systems at the scales most useful for policy.

About the Speaker: Justin Mankin is a PhD candidate in the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment & Resources (E-IPER) in Stanford’s School of Earth Sciences.

His research aims to constrain the uncertainty essential to understanding and responding to climate change’s impacts on people. His work focuses on two of the major sources of uncertainty in climate impacts assessments: the chaos of the climate system and the complexity of how people respond to climate stress. His hope is that his research can help inform the adaptation and risk management decisions people undertake in response to the uncertain threats from climate change.

Prior to Stanford he served as an intelligence officer. In 2011, he was asked to return to Afghanistan to serve as an anti-corruption advisor to NATO’s ISAF. He holds degrees from Columbia University (BA, MPA) and from the London School of Economics (MSc).

 


Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends
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Encina Hall (2nd floor)

Justin S. Mankin Predoctoral Science Fellow Speaker CISAC
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Abstract: The increasing frequency of cyber attacks and technological change have amplified the potential adverse effects of successful, large-scale cyber attacks. While detecting the source of cyber threats is difficult, technological capabilities are making it easier. Along with my co-author, Kevin Risser, I argue that the ability to identify cybersecurity threats provides a mechanism for deterrence since prospective hackers take into account the expected costs of punishment—that is, penalties upon being caught by either their government or international authorities. In particular, we discuss the extent to which cyber threat attribution technologies and security infrastructures affect military strategies. First, we contextualize our argument through a lens of standard mutual assured destruction and deterrence theory. While there are parallels between the two, cybersecurity threats are fundamentally different because of their diffuse and mobile nature. Second, we build a game-theoretic model to illustrate our insight that attribution provides a deterrent. Our model provides a closed-form relationship between the prospective hacker’s beliefs of evading attribution and the expected benefits/costs of an attack. We close our paper with considerations of future research.

About the Speaker: Christos Makridis is a Ph.D. candidate at Stanford University’s Management Science & Engineering department researching macro and public economics. He is also the Editor of the UNESCO-sponsored Global Water Forum’s economics section, and a Non-Resident Fellow at the North American Research Partnership. Christos studies the quantitative effects of a wide range of public policy interventions, such as tax policy on productivity and environmental policy on pollution abatement, in stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models. Christos holds a B.S. in Economics and Minor in Mathematics from Arizona State University.

 


Cybersecurity and Military Strategy: The Effectiveness of Attribution as a Deterrence
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Encina Hall (2nd floor)

Christos Makridis PhD Candidate Speaker Department of Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University
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Abstract: The presentation is concerned with the intellectual history and analysis of the emergence of ‘classic COIN’. Between 1954 and 1961, French, British and US counterinsurgency practitioners repeatedly exchanged field experiences, distilling a corpus of ‘best practices’ for fighting rebellions in the Third World. These were not apart from a certain interpretative framework of the problem they dealt with. As they were standardized and assembled into a more structured whole, a shared counterinsurgency ‘paradigm’ emerged, intended not only in the Kuhnian sense of a set of conceptual assumptions, but also of a theoretical model serving as the basic pattern for a segment of military operations. This was to manifest itself in a sequence of works of military art elaborated between 1962 and 1970, the COIN ‘classics’, which distinguished themselves for expounding a structural grievances-based understanding of insurgency, for outlining an integrated operational model focused on persuasive and administrative rather than coercive means and, last but not least, for adopting a ‘psycho-culturalist’ analytical framework radically different from that of the mainstream strategic thought of the time.

 

About the Speaker: Niccolò Petrelli is a postdoctoral fellow at CISAC. Before joining CISAC in 2013, Niccolò was a military research fellow at the Military Center for Strategic Studies (Ce.Mi.S.S.) within the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (CASD) at the Italian Ministry of Defense and a visiting scholar at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) in Herzliya, Israel.

Niccolò received his Ph.D in Political Science from the University of Roma Tre in 2013 writing a dissertation on the impact of strategic culture on the Israeli approach to counterinsurgency. His works have been published, among others, in the Journal of Strategic Studies and Small Wars & Insurgencies. His research interests include the theory and practice of counterinsurgency, strategy development and implementation, defense and strategic analysis, cultural approach to IR and modern military thought.

Encina Hall (2nd floor)

Niccolo Petrelli Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker CISAC
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Abstract: This paper contributes to a burgeoning literature on civilian targeting in civil war by arguing that rebel war aims can offer critical insight into who targets civilians, and when.  Specifically, I argue that secessionists are less likely than non-secessionist rebel groups to target civilians in civil war, for two reasons.  First, secessionists, who have the greatest military capacity in their claimed region, are unlikely to target civilians meant to comprise the population of their desired state. And second, secessionists are especially, and increasingly, aware of and concerned with their reputation with respect to the international community.  I test these claims using an original data set on civil wars from 1816 to 2007, as well as a case study of the South Moluccan separatist movement.

 

About the Speaker: Tanisha Fazal is Associate Professor of Political Science and Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame. Her research focuses on questions around sovereignty, international law and norms, and political violence. Her book, State Death: The Politics and Geography of Conquest, Occupation, and Annexation won the 2008 Best Book Award of the American Political Science Association's Conflict Processes Section. Additional work has been published in journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, International Organization, International Security, International Studies Review, and Security Studies. She is currently completing a book manuscript on belligerents' historical and strategic use of the laws of war. More information can be found on Professor Fazal's website: http://www.tanishafazal.com/

Secessionism and Civilian Targeting
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Encina Hall (2nd floor)

 

Tanisha Fazal Associate Professor of Political Science and Peace Studies Speaker University of Notre Dame
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Due to the overwhelming response to this event and our seating limitations, registration is now closed.

 

Admiral Cecil D. Haney, a native of Washington, D.C. is a 1978 graduate of the United States Naval Academy.

His career as a submariner includes assignments aboard USS John C. Calhoun (SSBN 630), USS Frank Cable (AS 40), USS Hyman G. Rickover (SSN 709), USS Asheville (SSN 758), and Submarine Squadron 8, culminating in command of USS Honolulu (SSN 718).

Subsequent fleet command assignments include Submarine Squadron 1 from June 2002 to July 2004, and Submarine Group 2 from October 2006 to March 2008.

Admiral Haney's shore duty tours include administrative assistant for enlisted affairs at Naval Reactors; congressional appropriations liaison officer for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Comptroller); Deputy Chief of Staff of Plans, Policies and Requirements, U.S. Pacific Fleet (N5N8); Director, Submarine Warfare Division (N87); Director, Naval Warfare Integration Group (N00X); Deputy Commander, U.S. Strategic Command and recently Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Admiral Haney holds Master's degrees in Engineering Acoustics and System Technology from the Naval Post Graduate School, and a Master's degree in National Security Strategy from the National Defense University.

Admiral Haney's decorations include the Navy Distinguished Service Medal (two awards), Defense Superior Service Medal (two awards), Legion of Merit (four awards), Navy Commendation Medal (three awards), Navy Achievement Medal (two awards), and various campaign and unit awards. In addition, he was the 1998 Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale Leadership Award recipient.

Encina Hall, 2nd floor 

Admiral Cecil D. Haney Commander Speaker USSTRATCOM
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Abstract: The hundreds of young Westerners who have gone to fight with the group Islamic State in Syria/ Iraq have caused alarm among security practitioners and policy makers.

Data on Western fighters in past conflicts indicate that a little more than ten percent later turned to terrorism. The rest did not. The unprecedented and growing number of Western fighters in Syria/Iraq threatens to overwhelm the resources of the security agencies of smaller European countries. They can hardly afford to risk pushing returnees, who would otherwise have disengaged, back into the arms of extremist groups. But how to shape countermeasures so they do not work at cross-purposes with the natural disengagement processes, that appear to be at work?

This talk is based on a comprehensive review of case studies, which document voluntary disengagement from violent extremism in a Western context. It identifies broad patterns in terms of how and why individuals disengage, discusses the applicability of these insights to the returnees and discusses policy implications in terms of how to handle the homebound fighters. 

 

About the Speaker: Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen served as an executive director at the Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET) from 2008 to 2014. Her areas of responsibility comprised intelligence fusion and strategic terrorism threat analysis, preventive efforts to counter terrorism and violent extremism, exit-interventions, and protective security efforts.

Previously, she worked as a research manager and Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). In this capacity she was embedded with Danish armed forces in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan in 2006.

Dalgaard-Nielsen is a non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). She serves on the board of advisor of the Global Center on Cooperative Security, Washington DC and on the Board of Advisors of the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the National Defence College in Sweden.

She holds a Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University SAIS, an MA in political science from the University of Aarhus, and an executive MA of public management and governance from Copenhagen Business School and the University of Copenhagen. She has published widely on topics such as terrorism, radicalization, homeland security, peace-keeping operations, and transatlantic relations. 

"Promoting Exit from Violent Extremism: Themes and Approaches,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 36:3, 99-115
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Voluntary Disengagement from terrorism
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Encina Hall (2nd floor)

Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen Visiting Scholar Speaker CISAC
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Abstract: To what extent are the American public’s views on the use of force consistent with just war doctrine’s principles of proportionality and distinction? Drawing on an original survey experiment conducted on a representative sample of American citizens, we find that Americans broadly accept the ethical principle of proportionality. They are less willing to inflict collateral civilian deaths when the military importance of destroying the target is lower and more willing to accept them when doing so would avert the deaths of larger numbers of American soldiers. Nevertheless, we find that the public’s commitment to proportionality is heavily biased in favor of American interests in ways that suggest only limited support for traditional understandings of just war theory. We find little evidence that the public supports the principle of distinction (non-combatant immunity). Indeed, under certain conditions, more than two-thirds of the American public was willing to approve of intentional attacks on foreign civilians. In addition, contrary to prevailing interpretations of just war doctrine, Americans were significantly more likely to accept the collateral deaths of foreign civilians when those civilians were described as politically sympathetic with the adversary than when they were described as political opponents. The paper that will be presented, "Just a War Theory?  Understanding American Public Opinion on Proportionality and Distinction in War" is co-authored by Scott Sagan (Stanford University) and Ben Valentino (Dartmouth University).
 
About the Speaker: Scott D. Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University. He also serves as co-chair of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Global Nuclear Future Initiative. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University. From 1984 to 1985, he served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon. Sagan has also served as a consultant to the office of the Secretary of Defense and at the Sandia National Laboratory and the Los Alamos National Laboratory.  

Sagan is the author of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993); and, with co-author Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (W.W. Norton, 2012). He is the co-editor of Planning the Unthinkable (Cornell University Press, 2000) with Peter R. Lavoy and James L. Wirtz; the editor of Inside Nuclear South Asia (Stanford University Press, 2009); and co-editor of a two-volume special issue of Daedalus, On the Global Nuclear Future (Fall 2009 and Winter 2010), with Steven E. Miller. Sagan’s recent publications include “A Call for Global Nuclear Disarmament” in Nature (July 2012); “Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons” with Daryl G. Press and Benjamin A. Valentino in the American Political Science Review (February 2013); and, with Matthew Bunn, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences occasional paper, “A Worst Practices Guide to Insider Threats: Lessons from Past Mistakes” (2014).

Sagan was the recipient of the International Studies Association's International Security Studies Section Distinguished Scholar Award in 2013. He has also won four teaching awards: Stanford’s 1998-99 Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching; Stanford's 1996 Hoagland Prize for Undergraduate Teaching; the International Studies Association’s 2008 Innovative Teaching Award; and the Monterey Institute for International Studies’ Nonproliferation Education Award in 2009. 

Encina Hall (2nd floor)

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, E202
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

(650) 725-2715 (650) 723-0089
0
The Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science
The Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education  
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
rsd25_073_1160a_1.jpg PhD

Scott D. Sagan is Co-Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, and the Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He also serves as Co-Chair of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Committee on International Security Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon.

Sagan is the author of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993); and, with co-author Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (W.W. Norton, 2012). He is the co-editor of Insider Threats (Cornell University Press, 2017) with Matthew Bunn; and co-editor of The Fragile Balance of Terror (Cornell University Press, 2022) with Vipin Narang. Sagan was also the guest editor of a two-volume special issue of DaedalusEthics, Technology, and War (Fall 2016) and The Changing Rules of War (Winter 2017).

Recent publications include “Creeds and Contestation: How US Nuclear and Legal Doctrine Influence Each Other,” with Janina Dill, in a special issue of Security Studies (December 2025); “Kettles of Hawks: Public Opinion on the Nuclear Taboo and Noncombatant Immunity in the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Israel”, with Janina Dill and Benjamin A. Valentino in Security Studies (February 2022); “The Rule of Law and the Role of Strategy in U.S. Nuclear Doctrine” with Allen S. Weiner in International Security (Spring 2021); “Does the Noncombatant Immunity Norm Have Stopping Power?” with Benjamin A. Valentino in International Security (Fall 2020); and “Just War and Unjust Soldiers: American Public Opinion on the Moral Equality of Combatants” and “On Reciprocity, Revenge, and Replication: A Rejoinder to Walzer, McMahan, and Keohane” with Benjamin A. Valentino in Ethics & International Affairs (Winter 2019).

In 2022, Sagan was awarded Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace at their International Nuclear Policy Conference. In 2017, he received the International Studies Association’s Susan Strange Award which recognizes the scholar whose “singular intellect, assertiveness, and insight most challenge conventional wisdom and intellectual and organizational complacency" in the international studies community. Sagan was also the recipient of the National Academy of Sciences William and Katherine Estes Award in 2015, for his work addressing the risks of nuclear weapons and the causes of nuclear proliferation. The award, which is granted triennially, recognizes “research in any field of cognitive or behavioral science that advances understanding of issues relating to the risk of nuclear war.” In 2013, Sagan received the International Studies Association's International Security Studies Section Distinguished Scholar Award. He has also won four teaching awards: Stanford’s 1998-99 Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching; Stanford's 1996 Hoagland Prize for Undergraduate Teaching; the International Studies Association’s 2008 Innovative Teaching Award; and the Monterey Institute for International Studies’ Nonproliferation Education Award in 2009.     

Co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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Date Label
Scott Sagan The Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science Speaker Stanford University
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