Stanford University

Game of Drones: The Effect of Remote Warfighting Technology on Conflict Escalation

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Abstract: Many scholars and policymakers argue that drone proliferation will be destabilizing. By removing pilots from harm’s way, drones allow states to launch military operations without the political risks of sending troops into battle. Although these reduced risks may increase the likelihood of conflict onset, technology that removes warfighters from the battlefield may actually help states avoid escalatory spirals. To identify the effect of drones on escalation dynamics, I develop a theory of technology-enabled escalation control: when used as a substitute for manned assets, drones increase the frequency of conflict between actors, but limit the intensity of these disputes by decreasing pressures for retaliation. This restrained retaliation prevents crises from spiraling into more destabilizing conflicts. To test this argument, I develop a novel methodological approach – embedding experimental manipulations into wargames played by military personnel. The wargames demonstrate that drones can limit escalation and showcase wargaming as a tool for international relations research. 

 

Speaker Bio: Erik Lin-Greenberg is a Predoctoral Fellow at CISAC and a PhD candidate in political science at Columbia University. His dissertation assesses the effects of emerging technology on military escalation. In other work, Erik examines alliance dynamics, the interaction of technology and international law, and the determinants of military force structure. His research has appeared or is forthcoming in a variety of outlets including Security Studies, International Peacekeeping, War on the Rocks, and The Washington Post. Erik previously served as an active duty U.S. Air Force officer, and he continues to serve as a reservist assigned to the Joint Staff.

 

Erik Lin-Greenberg Predoctoral Fellow CISAC
Seminars
Research Seminar Series

How We Can Beat the Extremist Threat: A conversation with former Special Representative to Muslim Communities Farah Pandith

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Abstract

In How We Win: How Cutting-Edge Entrepreneurs, Political Visionaries, Enlightened Business Leaders, and Social Media Mavens Can Defeat the Extremist Threat, Farah Pandith, the former first-ever Special Representative to Muslim Communities argues that the solutions to the crisis of recruitment and radicalization are available and affordable. A pioneer in the war of ideas, her unprecedented experiences for Bush and Obama reveal information about Washington’s soft power challenge. She calls out the false claim that “ISIS is defeated” and focuses on the importance of defeating the ideology. The need is urgent as terrorist organizations continue to beat the current approach to this global threat. To win, she argues, we must go “all in” in order to extinguish this threat once and for all. She lays out a comprehensive strategy that is a call to action for policymakers, tech entrepreneurs, the media, business professionals, and anyone interested in fighting hate, and presents concrete solutions and recommendations for how we can stem the extremists’ toxic message. Drawing upon her experiences at the National Security Council, U.S. Department of State, and USAID, she makes the case that we have the resources right now to defeat the extremist threat. http://farahpandith.com/book/

 

Bio

FARAH PANDITH is an author, foreign policy strategist, and former diplomat. A world-leading expert and pioneer in countering violent extremism, she is a frequent media commentator and public speaker. She served as a political appointee under Presidents George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama, and most recently she was the first-ever Special Representative to Muslim Communities.  She has served on the National Security Council, at the U.S. Department of State, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in various senior roles. She is a senior fellow with the Future of Diplomacy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School as well as an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her book is How We Win: How Cutting-Edge Entrepreneurs, Political Visionaries, Enlightened Business Leaders and Social Medial Mavens Can Defeat the Extremist Threat.

 

Farah Pandith
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European Security and Its Future – A “Cool” Perspective from Finland

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Speaker Bio: Ms. Kirsti Kauppi became Ambassador of Finland to the United States in September 2015. Before that (2012-2015) she was Political Director (Director General for Political Affairs) and (2009-2012) Director General for Africa and the Middle East in the Ministry for Foreign Affairs in Helsinki.

2005 she was appointed Ambassador of Finland to Austria and Permanent Representative to the UN-related international organizations located in Vienna. Ambassador Kauppi has also served in the Finnish Embassy in Berlin (2003-2005) as Deputy Chief of Mission (Minister). Her other foreign posts include Washington (1997-2000), the Finnish Permanent Mission to the EU in Brussels (1993-1997) and Bangkok (1989-92).

 

Abstract: Pillars of European security show signs of strain. The question is what can be the building blocks for stability and security in Europe in the future. 

Finland is a Nordic country, amongst the most stable countries in the world, one of the most open economies, technologically advanced and the “happiest” country in the world.  A rules-based international order is vitally important for countries like Finland. Return of great power competition as the organizing principle of international relations is a bleak perspective for small nations.  How should Europe position itself and what should the Europeans do? How about the transatlantic community and the West as a whole?

Finland offers an interesting point of view.  A committed member of the European Union, Finland underlines the importance of European integration, including using EU methods to strengthen European security and defense.  Finland holds the transatlantic relationship and NATO an irreplaceable pillar of stability in Europe even if the country has not joined the Alliance.  Believer in cooperative security Finland promotes dialogue and confidence building, but at the same time possesses robust military capabilities.  Finland looks at Russia with clear eyes and concern, and has through history a unique perspective to what to make of Russia and how to manage the relationship with Russia.

At the talk, the different challenges to European security are discussed and also the elements through which Europe and the US could respond and reinforce the foundations of stability in Europe, as well as why it is important that the USA and Europe are on the same page in these issues. 

Kirsti Kauppi Ambassador of Finland to the United States
Seminars
European Security Initiative

Trump, Russia and the Subversion of American Democracy (rescheduled)

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Please Note: The Trump, Russia and the Subversion of American Democracy seminar has been rescheduled from March 5th to March 20th (12:00pm-1:30pm). Please use the link above to register for the new event. If you signed up for the March 5th event date, you will need to sign up again using the link above.

 

Abstract: Greg Miller, Washington Post correspondent, winner of the Pulitzer Prize, and author of The Apprentice, will discuss Russia’s interference in U.S. domestic politics, the rising aggression and brazenness associated with Russian espionage in this era, and the fallout in the United States.  He will address the return on investment for Russia and how it has failed to achieve short-term objectives (removal of sanctions) but has achieved broader aims, including making Vladimir Putin seem more potent on the world stage and making the United States (and Western democracy) seem week and dysfunctional.

Speaker Bio: Greg Miller (MA Stanford 93) covers national security for The Washington Post, and is the author of "The Apprentice -- Trump, Russia and the Subversion of American Democracy," a book published in 2018 by the Washington Post and Harper Collins. Miller was among the Post reporters awarded the 2018 Pulitzer Prize for coverage of Russia's interference in the 2016 election and the fallout under the Trump administration. Miller was also part of the team awarded the 2014 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for the paper's stories about U.S. surveillance programs exposed by former intelligence contractor Edward Snowden.

 

Greg Miller Correspondent Washington Post
Seminars
European Security Initiative

Russian Hybrid War, Ukraine, and US policy

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Abstract: This talk will discuss the evolution of Russian hybrid war and how the Russians executed it to perfection to seize Crimea. At the same time, it is important to understand some of the peculiarities of Ukraine to understand why the Russians are unlikely to have the same success elsewhere. The talk will describe internal balancing options that bordering nations can take to deter Russian aggression. Finally, the talk will also discuss the fits and formulation of U.S. policymaking with regards to Ukraine.

 

Speaker Bio: COL Liam Collins is the Director of the Modern War Institute and the Director of the Department Instruction at the United States Military Academy (USMA) at West Point. From 2016-2018, he also served Gen (ret.) Abizaid’s executive officer for his Secretary of Defense appointment as the Senior Defense Advisor to Ukraine, planning and executing meetings with senior Ukrainian and international officials to help reform Ukraine's defense establishment, and meetings with DoS, DoD, NSC, and HASC officials to inform and shape U.S. policy.

Previously, he served as the director of the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point where he authored “The Abbottabad Documents: Bin Ladin’s Security Measures” and co-authored Letters from Abbottabad: Bin Ladin Sidelined?  both of which studied documents captured during the Abbottabad raid and released to the CTC. His work has been cited by the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, the White House Press Secretary, The New York Times, the Associated Press, CNN, ABC News, Fox News, NPR, The Wall Street Journal and USA Today.

COL Collins is a career Special Forces officer, who has served in a variety of special operations assignments. He has conducted multiple operational deployments including Operational Nobile Anvil (Kosovo ’99), Operation Joint Forge (Bosnia ’00, ’02), Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan ’01,’02,’11), Operation Iraqi Freedom (’03,’04) as well as operational deployments to South America and the Horn of Africa.

He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering (Aerospace) from the United States Military Academy (1992), and a Master in Public Affairs and a PhD from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.  He is also a graduate of the Army Command and General Staff College, the Special Forces Qualification Course, the Infantry Officer Advanced Course, and the Engineer Officer Basic Course.

COL Collins’ military awards and decorations include: Bronze Star Medal (with “V” device for valor and two oak leaf clusters), Defense Meritorious Service Medal (with oak leaf cluster), Meritorious Service Medal (with two oak leaf clusters), Joint Service Commendation Medal, Army Commendation Medal (with “V” device for valor and three oak leaf clusters), Army Achievement Medal (with four oak leaf clusters), Combat Infantryman’s Badge, Special Forces Tab, Ranger Tab, Sapper Tab, Military Free Fall Badge with Bronze Star (for combat jump), Master Parachutist Badge, and Air Assault Badge. He won the Army’s Best Ranger Competition in 2007 and was selected as the Army’s Coach of the Year in 2011.

 

Liam Collins Director of the Modern War Institute and the Director of the Department Instruction at the United States Military Academy (USMA) West Point
Seminars
European Security Initiative

Talking to the Enemy: Explaining Diplomatic Strategy in Conflicts in Asia

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EMERGING ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ASIA

A Special Seminar Series

RSVP required by February 12, 2019 to: https://goo.gl/forms/h9RRcz4vR9Ybn5cQ2

VALID STANFORD ID CARD MUST BE PRESENTED UPON ARRIVAL

 

ABSTRACT: Diplomacy plays a critical role in the management and resolution of armed conflict in the international system. After a war breaks out, decision makers see the opening of talks as a constructive step in the conflict’s resolution — dialogue allows for belligerents to broker deals and coordinate the logistics of war termination. However, in modern warfare, states almost always fight initially for period of time without engaging in talks. What factors explain whether states are willing to talk to their enemy while fighting and when might their diplomatic postures change? “Talking to the Enemy” presents a framework to explain variation in countries’ approaches to wartime diplomacy, focusing on the costs of talks and how states mitigate these costs to get to the negotiating table. I test this framework with respect to Chinese decision making in the Korean and Sino-Indian Wars — one in which China was against talks for nine months before opening up and the latter in which China actively pursued talks throughout the whole conflict. The findings have significant implications for crisis management and conflict resolution in U.S.-China relations.  

Oriana Mastro
PROFILE: Oriana Skylar Mastro is an assistant professor of security studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. Dr. Mastro is also a 2017-2019 Jeane Kirkpatrick Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) where she is working on a book about China’s challenge to U.S. primacy. Mastro continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve for which she works as a Senior China Analyst at the Pentagon. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016. She has published widely, including in Foreign Affairs, International Security, International Studies Review, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, The National Interest, Survival, and Asian Security, and is the author of The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, (Cornell University Press, 2019). She holds a BA in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an MA.and PhD in Politics from Princeton University. Her publications and other commentary can be found on twitter @osmastro and www.orianaskylarmastro.com.  

 

Oriana Mastro Assistant Professor of Security Studies Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Seminars

A New Russia in a New World?

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Abstract: Russian foreign and security policy are changing, both to shape and respond to what appears to be a rapidly shifting geostrategic environment. Olga Oliker will discuss the sources of Russian foreign and security policy, how they manifest in defense planning and strategy, Moscow's actions in Ukraine and Syria, and Russian interaction with the United States and European countries. She will then consider the implications of a more active Russia for global security and stability and for the interests and policies of the United States and its allies.

Bio: As Crisis Group's Program Director for Europe and Central Asia, Olga Oliker leads the organisation’s research, analysis, policy prescription and advocacy in and about Russia, Europe, Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Oliker’s own research interests center on the foreign and security policies of Russia, Ukraine, and the Central Asian and Caucasian successor states to the Soviet Union, domesticpolitics in these countries, U.S. policy towards the region, and nuclear weapons and arms control. Prior to coming to Crisis Group, Oliker directed the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and held research and management roles at the RAND Corporation. Oliker holds a B.A. from Emory University in international studies, an M.P.P. from Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, and a Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Olga Oliker Director, Europe and Central Asia Program Center for Strategic & International Studies
Seminars
European Security Initiative

What is the Future of Nuclear Energy?

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Abstract: What is the future of nuclear energy?

The answer to that question will be determined largely by how we answer another: How do we meet future energy needs while mitigating climate change?

If the goal is to decarbonize our power grid, manufacturing processes and transportation systems, while increasing the standard of living in the U.S. and providing power to the more than 1.3 billion people worldwide currently living without, nuclear energy must be part of a mix that includes renewables such as solar and wind.

The nuclear reactors of the future will be different, however, than those currently in operation in the U.S. and around the world.

Through private-public partnerships and cutting-edge research conducted at Idaho National Laboratory, the U.S. is working to develop reactors that are safer, smaller, cheaper to build and operate, and which produce less spent fuel.

But, questions remain:

Will the U.S. open a national repository for spent fuel and Cold War nuclear waste?

Can the public be convinced that nuclear energy’s disadvantages are outweighed by its contributions to the safety, reliability and stability of our power grid, as well as our economy, environment and national security?

Will policymakers continue to make the investments necessary to ensure that the commercial nuclear energy industry, an American creation that generates 19 percent of our electricity and more than half of our carbon-free electricity, continues to power U.S. prosperity well into the 21st century?

Dr. Mark Peters will address these questions, talk about the technical evolution of reactor designs, and detail growing bipartisan support for nuclear energy in Washington, D.C.

He also will discuss the research and development history that helped create the American nuclear energy industry, and the role INL and other national laboratories will play in developing and deploying the next generation of nuclear reactors.


 

 

Bio: Dr. Mark Peters is laboratory director at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). He is responsible for management and integration of a large, multipurpose national laboratory, with a mission focus in nuclear energy, national and homeland security, and energy and environmental science and technology. He manages an organization of 4,200 staff and multiple nuclear and non-nuclear experimental facilities, with an annual budget of more than $1 billion. Peters serves as a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Energy on nuclear energy technologies and research and development programs, and nuclear waste policy. As a recognized expert in nuclear fuel cycle technologies and nuclear waste management, Peters is called upon frequently to provide expert testimony to Congress in formulation of policies for nuclear fuel cycles, nonproliferation and nuclear waste disposal. Peters was honored in 2015 as a Fellow of the American Nuclear Society for outstanding accomplishments in the area of nuclear science and technology. Peters serves as chairman of the National Laboratory Directors Council Executive Committee.

 

 

Mark Peters Director Idaho National Laboratory
Seminars
Directors' Seminar Series

Radioactive Governance: The Politics of Expertise after Fukushima

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Abstract: My research focuses on the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and on the release of radioactive contamination throughout Japan. Based on 14 months of fieldwork in Japan, the research examines the crisis of expertise that ensued when many citizens became wary of state institutional experts, especially in their capacities to explain and manage the problems engendered by residual radioactivity.In this context of public skepticism, I ask the following: how does the Japanese state attempt to govern the hazards of radioactive contamination, and ultimately, the reconstruction of normality in the aftermath of a nuclear disaster? I argue that the management of radiation hazard after Fukushima includes an important reorganization of state expertise, which now moves beyond traditional forms of risk communication and institutional experts.My research advances policyand public-relevant understandings of repliesto radioactive contamination by highlighting the needs of appropriate educational infrastructure around radiation risk, while emphasizing democratic opportunity for citizen-government collaboration. Within post-Fukushima Japan, anthropological investigations of the governance of radiation hazards are essential for understanding the configurations of cultural schemas, social relationships, and technological interplays that led individuals to “accept” life amidst toxicity and other to refuse it.

 

Speaker's Biography: Maxime Polleri is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Anthropology at York University. His current research focuses on the 2011 Fukushima Dai’ichi nuclear disaster and on the crisis of expertise that ensued, in which many citizens have become wary of state institutional experts, especially in their capacities to manage the problems engendered by residual radioactivity. In such a context, his dissertation is concerned with how the Fukushima crisis has participated in the formations of new forms of expertise and consequently, new means of governing toxicity. It asks: How is radioactive hazard being governed in the wake of a crisis of legitimacy against state institutional expert? Based on 14 months of ethnographic fieldwork throughout Japan, the dissertation argues that averting the crisis of expertise and managing the reconstruction of what “normality” involves in a post-Fukushima Japan include a fundamental reorganization of state governance, where the dissemination of radiation hazards cannot simply rest on dry, clinical manner in which government-packaged expertise about radiation was initially promulgated to a former lay public. In particular, these shift in the governance of radioactive risk are increasingly being enacted by promoting a state-sponsored affective embodiment toward nuclear matter, as well as by encouraging the endeavor of citizen science, where former lay citizens now track and monitor residual radioactivity in their environment. His fieldwork was funded by the Japan Foundation and the Canada Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. His work has been published in Anthropology Now, Anthropology Today, and Medical Anthropology Quarterly Second Spear.

 

Maxime Polleri CISAC Predoctoral Fellow Stanford University
Seminars
Research Seminar Series

Nuclear Disarmament Verification via Resonant Phenomena

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Abstract: Nuclear disarmament treaties are not sufficient in and of themselves to neutralize the existential threat of the nuclear weapons. Technologies are necessary for verifying the authenticity of the nuclear warheads undergoing dismantlement before counting them towards a treaty partner’s obligation. A team of scientists working at MIT has developed two novel concepts which leverage isotope-specific nuclear resonance phenomena to authenticate a warhead's fissile components by comparing them to a previously authenticated template.  Most actinides such as uranium and plutonium exhibit unique sets of resonances when interacting with MeV photons and eV neutrons. When measured, these resonances produce isotope-specific features in the spectral data, thus creating an isotopic  "fingerprint" of an object. All information in these measurement has to be and is encrypted in the physical domain in a manner that amounts to a physical zero-knowledge proof system. Using Monte Carlo simulations and experimental proof-of-concept measurements these techniques are shown to reveal no isotopic or geometric information about the weapon, while readily detecting hoaxing attempts. These new methodologies can dramatically increase the reach and trustworthiness of future nuclear disarmament treaties.  The talk will discuss the concepts and recent results, and will give a general overview of nuclear security research pursued at MIT.

 

Bio: Areg Danagoulian is an Assistant Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT.  He did his PhD research in Experimental Nuclear Physics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Areg’s PhD thesis focused on experiments that used real Compton scattering on the proton at 2-6 GeV, allowing to probe the proton's internal structure and understand how it couples to external excitations. After his PhD Areg worked at Los Alamos as a postdoctoral researcher, and then as a senior scientist at Passport Systems, Inc. (PSI). At PSI Areg focused on the development of Prompt Neutron from Photofission (PNPF) technique, which allows to rapidly detect shielded fissionable materials in the commercial cargo traffic. Areg's current research interests focus on scientific applications in nuclear security, such areas nuclear nonproliferation, technologies for treaty verification, nuclear safeguards, and cargo security. Current specific research areas include:  warhead verification using nuclear resonances;  use of nuclear reactions for high precision radiography in nuclear security applications.

 

Areg Danagoulian Assistant Professor, Nuclear Science and Engineering MIT
Seminars
Research Seminar Series
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