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*For fall quarter 2021, CISAC will be hosting hybrid events. Many events will offer limited-capacity in-person attendance for Stanford faculty, staff, fellows, visiting scholars, and students in accordance with Stanford’s health and safety guidelines, and be open to the public online via Zoom. All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

 

REGISTRATION

 

Seminar Recording

About the Event: According to the Theory of the Nuclear Revolution (TNR), nuclear weapons have stabilized relations between great powers, making deterrence easier than compellence. This view is currently under attack. Recent work has documented Washington’s competitive approach to arms control agreements and the fragility of the nuclear stalemate. However, these critiques have not explained how policymakers could hope to extract coercive benefits from nuclear weapons. This paper revisits this question using a game-theoretic model. It shows that if the compellent state is able to bolster the credibility of its threat through standard techniques, i.e. burning bridges, probabilistic threats, or the rationality of irrationality, then compellence may succeed. However, greater military capabilities bolster coercion by increasing the risk of disaster, with first-strike capabilities being especially destabilizing. TNR was correct to warn about the risks of nuclear competition.

View paper

 

About the Speaker: 

Alexandre Debs is Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University. 

His research focuses on the causes of war, nuclear proliferation, and democratization, and it has appeared in top journals such as the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, International Organization, and International Security. He wrote with Nuno Monteiro the book Nuclear Politics: The Strategic Causes of Proliferation (2017, Cambridge University Press).

Alexandre received a Ph.d. in Economics from M.I.T., an M.Phil. in Economic and Social History from the University of Oxford as a Rhodes scholar, and a B.Sc. in Economics and Mathematics from Universite de Montreal.

Virtual Only. This event will not be held in person.

​Alexandre Debs Associate Professor Yale University
Seminars
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* Please note all CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

This event is hosted by the Hoover Institution and co-sponsored by CISAC.

Registration required to attend in person.

Event and Registration Link: https://www.hoover.org/events/spies-lies-and-algorithms

About the Event: Spying has never been more ubiquitous―or less understood. The world is drowning in spy movies, TV shows, and novels, but universities offer more courses on rock and roll than on the CIA and there are more congressional experts on powdered milk than espionage. This crisis in intelligence education is distorting public opinion, fueling conspiracy theories, and hurting intelligence policy. In Spies, Lies, and Algorithms, Amy Zegart separates fact from fiction as she offers an engaging and enlightening account of the past, present, and future of American espionage as it faces a revolution driven by digital technology.

Drawing on decades of research and hundreds of interviews with intelligence officials, Zegart provides a history of U.S. espionage, from George Washington’s Revolutionary War spies to today’s spy satellites; examines how fictional spies are influencing real officials; gives an overview of intelligence basics and life inside America’s intelligence agencies; explains the deadly cognitive biases that can mislead analysts; and explores the vexed issues of traitors, covert action, and congressional oversight. Most of all, Zegart describes how technology is empowering new enemies and opportunities, and creating powerful new players, such as private citizens who are successfully tracking nuclear threats using little more than Google Earth. And she shows why cyberspace is, in many ways, the ultimate cloak-and-dagger battleground, where nefarious actors employ deception, subterfuge, and advanced technology for theft, espionage, and information warfare.

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About the Speaker: 

Amy Zegart is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford University. She is also a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Chair of Stanford’s Artificial Intelligence and International Security Steering Committee, and a contributing writer at The Atlantic. She specializes in U.S. intelligence, emerging technologies and national security, grand strategy, and global political risk management.

In person at Hauck Auditorium Hoover Institution and Livestreamed at https://www.hoover.org/events/spies-lies-and-algorithms

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Professor Stacie Goddard is the Betty Freyhof Johnson ‘44 Professor of Political Science and Associate Provost for Wellesley in the World at Wellesley College. Her research and teaching focuses on questions of great power competition and international order. Her latest book, When Right Makes Might: Rising Powers and World Order was published by Cornell University Press in 2018. Other writing has appeared in International Organization, International Security, and Security Studies, as well as Foreign Affairs, the New York Times and the Washington Post. She is a series editor for Columbia University Press.

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SEMINAR RECORDING

 

All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. This event is part of the year-long initiative on “Ethics & Political Violence” jointly organized by the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and The McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society. This event is hosted by CISAC and is co-sponsored by Society for International Affairs at Stanford, McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society, Center for South Asia.

 

About the Event: The dramatic scenes the world witnessed during the fall of Kabul in 2021 following the withdrawal of US and allied forces from Afghanistan nearly coincided with the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks by Al Qaeda and the subsequent US and allied invasion of Afghanistan. The United States committed trillions of dollars, dispatched soldiers, diplomats and spies across the globe, and made dramatic alterations to domestic and international law to combat terrorism. The material, humanitarian and normative consequences of two decades of war have been significant, both globally and in Afghanistan specifically. In this panel, Dr. Felter, Dr. Mir and Professor Zegart will assess U.S. responses during the global war on terror, identify unexpected outcomes and lessons learned, and ultimately weigh the costs and benefits of this two-decade struggle against terrorism.

 

About the Speakers: 

Joe Felter is a William J. Perry Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and research fellow at the Hoover Institution.  From 2017 to 2019, Felter served as US deputy assistant secretary of defense for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. There he was the principal advisor for all policy matters pertaining to development and implementation of defense strategies and plans in the region and responsible for managing bilateral security relationships and guiding Department of Defense (DoD) engagement with multilateral institutions.  

 

Asfandyar Mir is a senior expert in the Asia Center at USIP. Previously, heheld various fellowships at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. His research interests include the international relations of South Asia, U.S. counterterrorism policy and political violence — with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Asfandyar Mir’s research has appeared in peer-reviewed journals, such as International Security, International Studies Quarterly and Security Studies. He received his doctorate in political science from the University of Chicago and a master’s and bachelor’s from Stanford University.

 

Amy Zegart is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford University. She is also a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Chair of Stanford’s Artificial Intelligence and International Security Steering Committee, and a contributing writer at The Atlantic. She specializes in U.S. intelligence, emerging technologies and national security, grand strategy, and global political risk management.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person. 

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, E216
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

(650) 725-9754 (650) 723-0089
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science
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Dr. Amy Zegart is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The author of five books, she specializes in U.S. intelligence, emerging technologies, and national security. At Hoover, she leads the Technology Policy Accelerator and the Oster National Security Affairs Fellows Program. She also is an associate director and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI; a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute; and professor of political science by courtesy, teaching 100 students each year about how emerging technologies are transforming espionage.

Her award-winning research includes the leading academic study of intelligence failures before 9/11: Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11 (Princeton, 2007) and the bestseller Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence (Princeton, 2022), which was nominated by Princeton University Press for the Pulitzer Prize. She also coauthored Political Risk: How Businesses and Organizations Can Anticipate Global Insecurity, with Condoleezza Rice (Twelve, 2018). Her op-eds and essays have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Politico, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.

Zegart has advised senior officials about intelligence and foreign policy for more than two decades. She served on the National Security Council staff and as a presidential campaign foreign policy advisor and has testified before numerous congressional committees. Before her academic career, she spent several years as a McKinsey & Company consultant.

Zegart received an AB in East Asian studies from Harvard and an MA and a PhD in political science from Stanford. She serves on the boards of the Council on Foreign Relations, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, and the American Funds/Capital Group.

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Sanne Cornelia J. Verschuren is an Assistant Professor of International Security at the Pardee School of Global Studies of Boston University. Her research interests lie at the intersection of international relations, the domestic determinants of security policy, and the role of ideas, norms, and institutions in national security decision-making. She focuses on how states fight war, examining why they construct novel weapon technologies, how they envision fielding such technologies, and why they choose to abandon certain technologies and practices.

Professor Verschuren is in the process of finalizing her first book manuscript, titled "Imagining the Unimaginable: War, Weapons, and Procurement Politics." This book is based on her dissertation, which received APSA’s 2022 Kenneth N. Waltz Outstanding Dissertation Award. In the book, she asks why and how states decide to develop different weapon capabilities within a similar military domain—with the development of missile defenses by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and India as the central case studies. Other research by Professor Verschuren has appeared in Global Studies Quarterly, War on the Rocks, and Inkstick Media, among others.

Before joining Boston University, Professor Verschuren was a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellow at Sciences Po’s Center for International Studies, a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, and a predoctoral research fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

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Dr. Melissa Salm earned her Ph.D. in Sociocultural Anthropology with an emphasis in science and technology studies from UC Davis. In support of her thesis, Dr. Salm conducted multi-sited fieldwork across Peru, examining how the 'One Health' model was incorporated into epidemiological field investigations of zoonoses and integrated into global health governance tools for systematizing global health security capacities across the Americas. Her research was funded by the NIH-FIC, for which she conducted a qualitative study identifying the definitions, practices, and visions of 'global health' among PI's in Latin America and the Caribbean compared to those of PI's in North America.

In her research, Dr. Salm examines conceptualizations and operationalizations of risk in the biosciences and biosecurity management. Her guiding questions are: in what concrete ways do controversial techniques for predicting viral risks, such as GOF/PPP, translate into effective pandemic preparedness and response measures? What tools must be invented and standardized to facilitate coordinated institutional responses to public health threats and to move pro-actively from a state of preparedness to response?

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J. Luis Rodriguez is an assistant professor at George Mason University’s Schar School for Policy and Government. He studies power dynamics in the international order and international security institutions, focusing particularly on Latin America’s role in strategically shaping norms of humanitarian intervention, nuclear governance, and regulations on emerging technologies with security applications. His work has been published in peer-reviewed journals such as Perspectives on Politics and International Affairs, as well as in policy-oriented outlets like The Washington Post and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. His first book, Orders to Protect: Latin America, Humanitarian Intervention, and Constraints on Great Powers, is forthcoming with Cambridge University Press.

Dr. Rodriguez is an adjunct non-resident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Program on Nuclear Issues and an affiliate of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. He is an academic visitor at Oxford University’s Nuffield College for the Michaelmas term. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Political Science from Johns Hopkins University and a B.A. in International Relations from El Colegio de México. Before his academic career, he served as a junior advisor to the Mexican Vice-Minister for Latin American Affairs.

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Dr. Sigrid Lupieri received her Ph.D. in Politics and International Studies and an MPhil in Modern European History from the University of Cambridge. She also holds an M.S. in Journalism from Northwestern University. Her research examines how security concerns, foreign policy agendas, and diplomacy shape the priorities of refugee responses, with a particular focus on health. Her forthcoming book, Disease and Diplomacy: The Weaponization of Medical Aid in Jordan (University of Michigan Press, 2026), shows how governments leverage refugee health needs for political and diplomatic gain. Her research has appeared in journals including Third World Quarterly, Social Science & Medicine, and Forced Migration Review. In other projects, Dr. Lupieri explores the impact of refugee movements on host-country healthcare systems and the broader effects of international aid on refugee welfare. At Stanford University, she has taught undergraduate seminars on war, humanitarianism, and global politics. She has also worked as a journalist in Armenia, Georgia, and Germany, and as a UN officer in New York and New Delhi.

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Debak Das is an Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs at the University of Denver. His research is at the intersection of international security, nuclear proliferation, crises, and international history. His first book, Delivering the Bomb: The Spread of Nuclear Delivery Syatems and the Global Non-proliferation Order is forthcoming with Cornell University Press in 2027. Debak’s research and writing have been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Global Studies Quarterly, H-Diplo Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum, International Studies Review, Lawfare, Political Science Quarterly, Research and Politics, Security Studies, Texas National Security Review, The Washington Post, and War on the Rocks. Debak is also a Director at the Bridging the Gap program that seeks to promote engagement between the scholarly, policy and public spheres. He earned his PhD in Government from Cornell University in 2021. Debak was the MacArthur Nuclear Security Pre-Doctoral Fellow in 2019-2020, and a Stanton Nuclear Security Post-Doctoral Fellow in 2021-2022, at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. He holds an M.Phil in Diplomacy and Disarmament, and an M.A. in Politics (specializing in International Relations) from the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Debak is also an affiliate at CISAC at Stanford University and at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, New Delhi. 

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Lauren Sukin is the John G. Winant Associate Professor in U.S. Foreign Policy in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford as well as a Professorial Fellow at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. She is an Affiliate at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), a Nonresident Scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program (NPP) at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), and a Fellow at Charles University's Peace Research Centre Prague (PRCP). She holds a Ph.D. and M.A. from the Department of Political Science at Stanford University and A.B.s from the Departments of Political Science and Literary Arts at Brown University. Lauren was a Pre-Doctoral Fellow and a MacArthur Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation during the 2021-2022 academic year.

Lauren’s research examines issues of international security, focusing primarily on the role of nuclear weapons in international politics. Her research leverages multi-method approaches, including survey experiments, case studies, causal analysis, and machine learning. Her work has appeared in publications such as Journal of Conflict Resolution, Security Studies, and International Studies Quarterly as well as in media outlets such as Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and War on the Rocks. 

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