“Loss of control,” writes political scientist Richard Ned Lebow, “is a principal theme . . . of crisis management.”1 Yet crisis stability presumes that control can be retained in war and that conditions can be construed so as to ensure that nuclear weapons are not used. The Cold War debate on crisis stability deliberated how particular military capabilities, military doctrines, and misperceived communication were sources of instability in a crisis that could trigger escalation. The current information environment presents additional challenges for retaining stability in crisis. New tools of misinformation and disinformation and the abundance of data available to decision makers via the global information ecosystem (a significant proportion of which may be unverified) enhance the problem of understanding the capabilities, doctrines, and intentions of the adversary. The risk of misperception during a crisis may increase significantly as a result, contributing to risks of escalation and inadvertent war. The deliberate manipulation of information may be used to influence decision makers as well as public opinion before or during a crisis. Such manipulation of the political process may also significantly affect crisis decision making. This chapter addresses what the sources of crisis instability are given this new information ecosystem.

Continue reading at hoover.org