Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

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* Please note all CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

 

Seminar Recording: https://youtu.be/UOHyKJR5d1w

 

About the Event: 

In 2017, former diplomat Elizabeth Shackelford wrote a pointed resignation letter to her then boss, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. She had watched as the State Department was gutted, and now she urged him to stem the bleeding by showing leadership and commitment to his diplomats and the country. If he couldn’t do that, she said, “I humbly recommend that you follow me out the door.” In The Dissent Channel, Shackelford chronicles how the challenges facing the State Department under the current administration, while extreme, are not new. In this live-streamed conversation, Shackelford will discuss the costs of a government unwilling to face mistakes or correct its course. She will also discuss how to build a more accountable foreign policy, through greater public engagement, more effective congressional oversight, and a State Department culture more open to dissent. In her book, The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age, she shares her personal experience as a diplomat trying to push back against the status quo and offers insight into the State Department’s long history of overlooking others who have tried to do the same. 

Moderating the discussion will be Rose Gottemoeller, Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and CISAC. Gottemoeller served as Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019 and prior to that as Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U.S. Department of State for nearly five years. While Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance in 2009 and 2010, she was the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation.

Book Purchase: https://www.amazon.com/Dissent-Channel-American-Diplomacy-Dishonest/dp/1541724488

 

About the Speakers: 

Elizabeth Shackelford was a career diplomat in the U.S. State Department until December 2017, when she resigned in protest of the Trump administration. During her tenure with the Foreign Service, Shackelford served in the U.S. embassies in Warsaw, Poland, and Juba, South Sudan; the U.S. Mission to Somalia; and Washington, D.C. For her work in South Sudan during the outbreak of civil war, Shackelford received the Barbara Watson Award for Consular Excellence, the State Department's highest honor for consular work. Shackelford is a non-resident fellow with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

 

Moderated by: Rose Gottemoeller is the Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and its Center for International Security and Cooperation. Gottemoeller was Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019. Prior to NATO, she served for nearly five years as Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the Department of State, advising the Secretary of State on arms control, nonproliferation and political-military affairs. Gottemoeller was also the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation in 2009 and 2010.

 

 

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Elizabeth Shackelford
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Oriana Skylar Mastro
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This essay by Oriana Skylar Mastro originally appeared in Cato Unbound.



In his lead essay, Eric Gomez cites profound technological changes as the main reason why the United States should rethink its nuclear policy. However, there is one drastic change he does not adequately take into account: the rise of China. This response essay, therefore, focuses on the China factor in U.S. nuclear policy.

Chinese Nuclear Modernization

Since the turn of the century, China has been modernizing its nuclear forces in earnest. Currently, Beijing’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to number in the 200s. From 2017 to 2018, warheads increased by ten, and the Pentagon anticipates that the stockpile will double over the next ten years. These modernization efforts, such as moving from silo-based liquid-fueled ICBMs to mobile solid-fueled delivery vehicles, have focused mainly on improving force survivability. China also added a sea leg to its nuclear deterrent in 2016 with the introduction of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (JL-2) on its Jin-class ballistic missile submarine.

Additionally, China is producing ballistic missile systems with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) and maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV) technologies that enhance missiles’ effectiveness. To this end, China has launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training in 2019 than the rest of the world combined. Meanwhile, the PLA’s new hypersonic cruise missiles supposedly are capable of piercing existing missile defense systems. Furthermore, structural reforms in China’s military reveal the critical role nuclear weapons play in Chinese strategy. In 2016, the branch in charge of China’s nuclear deterrent, the Second Artillery, was upgraded to a service, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force. Its commander was added to China’s highest military body, the Central Military Commission.

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China’s drive to modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces may cause some to argue with Gomez’s essential premise that new thinking is needed. This week, U.S. Strategic Commander Adm. Charles Richard remarked that China’s nuclear weapons buildup is “inconsistent” with their long-held no-first-use policy, emphasizing the need for the United States to pursue nuclear modernization. Indeed, there has been a resurgence in Cold War thinking about nuclear deterrence. For example, Former Senator Jon Kyl and Michael Morell argued for more low-yield nuclear warheads as part of an “escalate to deescalate” strategy. Similarly, Bret Stephens raised concerns that the U.S. arsenal is insufficient to prevent Chinese aggression.

However, I agree with Gomez that we need to rethink U.S. nuclear policy to ensure it can better meet contemporary challenges. Specifically, I argue that to best suit U.S. foreign policy interests, U.S. nuclear policy needs to minimize the role of nuclear weapons in U.S.-China great power competition and pave the way for arms control.

Continue reading Oriana Mastro's response essay in Cato Unbound >>

Read More

Portrait of Oriana Skylar Mastro and a 3D cover of her book, 'The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime'
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FSI Center Fellow Wins Best Book in Security Studies Award

The American Political Science Association recognizes Oriana Skylar Mastro for her work on military strategy and mediation.
FSI Center Fellow Wins Best Book in Security Studies Award
Portrait of Oriana Mastro with text: "Q&A with Oriana Skylar Mastro"
Q&As

FSI’s Incoming Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro Discusses Chinese Ambitions, Deteriorating U.S.-China Relations

Mastro, whose appointment as a Center Fellow at Shorenstein APARC begins on August 1, considers the worsening relations between the world’s two largest economies, analyzes Chinese maritime ambitions, and talks about her military career and new research projects.
FSI’s Incoming Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro Discusses Chinese Ambitions, Deteriorating U.S.-China Relations
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A missile display in the Military Museum in Beijing, China.
A missile display in the Military Museum in Beijing, China. | Guang Niu, Getty Images
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Oriana Skylar Mastro explains why U.S. nuclear policy needs to minimize the role of nuclear weapons in the U.S.-China great power competition and pave the way for arms control.

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Does a tracking system making laws more enforceable actually improve society? Ahmed examines how technology firms and the Chinese government build databases and information sharing procedures that monitor the behavior of individuals, corporations, legal institutions, and government representatives, with the end goal of building a society where those individuals and corporations follow the law.

Read the rest at Stanford HAI

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Does a tracking system making laws more enforceable actually improve society?

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* Please note all CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

 

Seminar Recording: https://youtu.be/bUXHbUj5uxE

 

About the Event: While most civil wars today are fought within Muslim-majority states and, frequently, by armed groups that self-identify as Islamic, we know little about the relationships between and amongst Islamic humanitarian law, Western (treaty-based) humanitarian law, and the rhetoric and behavior of Islamic armed groups. Our legal analysis suggests that, while there is a great deal of overlap between Western and Islamic humanitarian law, this overlap is not perfect. Our empirical analysis, which focuses on both the words and behaviors of Islamic armed groups, suggests similarly mixed results. Specifically, we find that, on average, Islamic armed groups do not appear to be more or less compliant with Western or Islamic humanitarian law than non-Islamic armed groups when it comes to civilian targeting and child soldiering. While they often appeal to Islamic humanitarian law, Islamic armed groups appear to be bound by similar political and military – rather than religious or legal – constraints to non-Islamic armed groups.

 

About the Speaker: Tanisha Fazal is Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. Her scholarship focuses on sovereignty, international law, and armed conflict.  Fazal’s current book project analyzes the effect of improvements in medical care in conflict zones on the long-term costs of war.  She is the author of State Death: The Politics and Geography of Conquest, Occupation, and Annexation (Princeton University Press, 2007), and Wars of Law: Unintended Consequences in the Regulation of Armed Conflict (Cornell University Press, 2018.

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Tanisha Fazal Professor of Political Science University of Minnesota
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T.V. Paul is Distinguished James McGill Professor in the Department of Political Science at McGill University, Montreal, and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. He served as President of the International Studies Association (ISA) during 2016-17. He is the Founding Director of the Global Research Network on Peaceful Change (GRENPEC).  Paul specializes in International Relations, especially peace and peaceful change, international security and South Asia.  He received his undergraduate education from Kerala University, India; MPhil in International Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi; and Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Paul is the author or editor of 24 books, co-editor of 6 special journal issues, and author of over 90 journal articles and book chapters. He has lectured at universities and research institutions internationally. His 8 authored books are: The Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi (Oxford University Press, 2024);  Restraining Great Powers: Soft Balancing from Empires to the Global Era (Yale University Press, 2018); The Warrior State: Pakistan in the Contemporary World (Oxford University Press, 2014, with multiple editions and translations); Globalization and the National Security State (with N. Ripsman), (Oxford University Press, 2010); The Tradition of Non-use of Nuclear Weapons (Stanford University Press, 2009);  India in the World Order (Cambridge University Press, 2002, with B. Nayar); Power versus Prudence: Why Nations Forgo Nuclear Weapons (McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2000); and Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers (Cambridge University Press, 1994).

Paul is the editor or co-editor of 16 volumes:The New Cold War and the Remaking of Regions (co-editor and contributor with Markus Kornprobst), Georgetown University Press, 2025; International Organizations and Peaceful Change in World Politics (co-editor & contributor  with Anders Wivel and Kai He), Cambridge University Press, 2024.; The Oxford Handbook of Peaceful Change in International Relations, Oxford, 2021; International Institutions and Power Politics, with A. Wivel, Georgetown,  2019; India-China Maritime Competition, with R. Basrur and A. Mukherjee, Routledge, 2019; China-India Rivalry in the Globalization Era, Georgetown, 2018; The Accommodation of Rising Powers: Past, Present and Future, Cambridge, 2016; Status in World Politics, with W. Wholforth and D. Larson, Cambridge, 2014; International Relations Theory and Regional Transformation, Cambridge, 2012; South Asia’s Weak States: Understanding the Regional Insecurity Predicament, Stanford, 2010; Complex Deterrence: Strategy In the Global Age, with P.M. Morgan and J. J. Wirtz, Chicago, 2009; The India-Pakistan Conflict: An Enduring Rivalry, Cambridge, 2005; Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, with J.J. Wirtz and M. Fortmann, Stanford, 2004; The Nation-State in Question, with G. J. Ikenberry and J.A. Hall, Princeton, 2003; International Order and the Future of World Politics, with J.A. Hall, Cambridge, 1999, 2000 (twice), 2001, 2002 & 2003; and The Absolute Weapon Revisited: Nuclear Arms and the Emerging International Order, with R. Harknett and  J.J. Wirtz, Michigan, 1998 & 2000.

He has also co-edited 6 special journal issues: International Affairs, “Soft Balancing in the Regions,” Special Journal Section, January 2025; Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, “India’s Strategy toward Great Powers: Balancing and Diplomatic Engagement Revisited,” December 2024; (with C. Vinodan); International Affairs, Double Issue on “Deglobalization? The Future of the Liberal International Order,” Fall 2021 (with Markus Kornpbrobst); Ethics and International Affairs Special Section on “International Institutions and Peaceful Change,” Fall 2020 (with Kai He and Anders Wivel); Asian Security on “China-India Naval Competition,” Spring 2019 (with Rajesh Basrur and Anit Mukherjee); and  International Studies Review, 20(2), on “Understanding Change in World Politics,” June 2018, ISA Presidential Issue with J. Andrew Grant.

In November 2018, Paul was inducted into the Royal Society of Canada as a Senior Fellow. In December 2009, Paul’s Book, The Tradition of Non-use of Nuclear Weapons was selected for inclusion in the Peace Prize Laureate Exhibition honoring President Barack Obama by the Nobel Peace Center, Oslo. Power versus Prudence was selected as an ‘Outstanding Academic Title for 2001’ by the Choice Magazine and as a “Book for Understanding’ by the American Association of University Presses. In March 2005 Maclean Magazine’s Guide to Canadian Universities rated Paul as one of the “most popular professors” at McGill University and in May 2005 Paul became the recipient of High Distinction in Research Award by McGill’s Faculty of Arts. During 2009-12 he served as the Director (Founding) of the McGill University/Université de Montreal Centre for International Peace and Security Studies (CIPSS) which he helped to co-found. He has held visiting positions at Stanford University; Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Diplomatic Academy, Vienna; UC Berkeley; East-West Center, Honolulu; the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey; Harvard University; and as the KPS Menon Visiting Chair for Diplomacy and Erudite Fellow at the MG University, Kottayam, India.

He is the recipient of the inaugural Kim Dae-jung Award by the International Political Science Association (IPSA), 2025 (named after former South Korean President and Nobel Laureate for Peace); the 2025 Distinguished Scholar Award of ISA’s International Security Studies Section (ISSS), and the 2024 Distinguished Scholar Award of International Studies Association (ISA)-Canada. In July 2024, he was awarded Distinguished Fellow by the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada.  In 2024, he was honored with the establishment of T.V. Paul Best Book Award by the Global International Studies Section (GIRS) of ISA and in May 2024, with the creation of T.V. Paul Lecture series in Peace and Security by the Faculty of Arts at McGill University. In January 2023, he was selected as the first social science fellow under the Brain Gain program of the Kerala State Higher Education Council. In addition to President, during 2009-11, he served as the Chair of the International Security Section (ISSS) of the ISA (initiated the proposal for the creation of the Journal of Global Security Studies and the H-Diplo-ISS Forum along with Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University); and in 2013-14 as Vice-President of ISA. As ISA president, he spearheaded a taskforce on improving conditions of Global South scholars in international studies. Since 2010, he has been serving as the editor of the Georgetown University Press book series: South Asia in World Affairs. 

For more, see: www.tvpaul.com

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Jacqueline L. Hazelton is the executive editor of the journal International Security. She was previously an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School. Hazelton's research ranges from grand strategy, great power military intervention, and U.S. foreign and military policy to counterinsurgency, terrorism, and the uses of military power. She recently published Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare and is working on a manuscript about great powers, liberal values, and military intervention.

Prior to her faculty appointment at the Naval War College, Hazelton was a visiting assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Rochester and a research fellow with the Belfer Center's International Security Program. Earlier experience included a stint as an international journalist with the Associated Press where she analyzed and reported on world events from Tokyo to Kabul and covered U.S. news as well. She received M.A.’s in English Literature and in International Relations from the University of Chicago and her Ph.D. from Brandeis University's Department of Politics.

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Christopher Darnton has a PhD from the Department of Politics at Princeton University. At CISAC, Christopher is writing a book on the hundred-year history of U.S. security cooperation in Latin America, using declassified military documents to analyze the day-to-day work of alliance politics from the vantage point of officers in the field. How should we explain and understand military roles in inter-American relations beyond specific cases of intervention, and what lessons should inform US defense cooperation and military diplomacy today? Christopher’s broader work examines the domestic and bureaucratic politics of foreign policy in the Americas, particularly related to enduring rivalries and regional wars; conflict resolution and public diplomacy; developing-country diplomacy in the Cold War and in contemporary great power competition; and the refinement of archival and case-study research methods in security studies.

Christopher is an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, where he has worked since 2016, teaching Latin American politics, international relations, and US foreign policy. Before NPS, Christopher taught for seven years at the Catholic University of America, and before that, for a year at Reed College. Christopher also served as president of the Foreign Policy section of the American Political Science Association; as a contributing editor to the Library of Congress' Handbook of Latin American Studies; and as a summer associate at the RAND Corporation.

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Dr. Gil Baram is a senior lecturer (US Associate Professor) at the Political Studies Department, Bar Ilan University. She is a non-resident research scholar at the Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (CLTC), University of California, Berkeley. She is also a senior adjunct research fellow at the Centre of Excellence for National Security, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Previously, she was a Fulbright Cybersecurity postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University.

Dr. Baram’s research explores, among other areas, AI-driven cyber threats, the impact of technology on national security, the role of Intelligence agencies in cyber operations, cyber threats to space systems, cyber diplomacy and norms development, and data-based approaches to cyber conflict research.

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Ryan A. Musto is Director of the Robert M. Gates Initiative in American Statecraft at William & Mary. Previously, he served as Director of Forums and Research Initiatives with William & Mary’s Global Research Institute.

By training, Ryan is a diplomatic historian with concentrations in nuclear and Cold War international history. He is currently completing a book manuscript on the international history of regional nuclear weapon free zones. With his work, Ryan seeks to better understand the geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics that led to proposals for regional denuclearization and determined their outcome. 

Ryan served as a MacArthur Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow with CISAC from 2020 - 2022. He has also served as a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and as a Nuclear Security Fellow with the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo, Brazil. His work has been published in Diplomatic History, Cold War History, Diplomacy & Statecraft, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Arms Control Today, and Americas Quarterly, amongst other outlets. 

Ryan holds a Ph.D. in history from The George Washington University, master’s degrees in international and world history from Columbia University and the London School of Economics, and a B.A. (hons.) in history from New York University (NYU).

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Sulgiye Park is a Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. Previously, she was a Senior Scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, where she specialized in analyzing the nuclear fuel pathways of North Korea and China. She earned her Ph.D. in Geological Sciences from Stanford, focusing on the behavior of nuclear materials under extreme environments, and later conducted research at the Stanford Institute for Materials and Energy Sciences on fabricating nanodiamonds for technological applications. As both a Stanton Foundation and MacArthur Foundation Fellow at CISAC, her work encompassed geologic analysis of North Korea’s uranium and critical metal resources, regulatory frameworks for nuclear waste management, and the production and supply chains of rare-earth and other critical metals in the United States.

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