Stanford University

Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter-in-Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation

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Professor Wein received his PhD in Operations Research from Stanford in 1988 and has taught core MBA courses in operations management throughout his entire career, both at MIT's Sloan School of Management from 1988 to 2002 and, since 2002, at Stanford's Graduate School of Business, where he is currently Paul  E. Holden Professor of Management Science. He has also been a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) at FSI since 2003.

Since 2001, Wein has analyzed a variety of homeland security problems. His homeland security work includes four papers in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: one on an emergency response to a smallpox attack,  a second on an emergency response to an anthrax attack, a third presenting a biometric analysis of the US-VISIT Program, and a fourth analyzing a bioterror attack on the milk supply. He has also published the Washington Post op-ed "Unready for Anthrax" (2003) and the New York Times op-ed "Got Toxic Milk?" (2005) and has written papers on port security, indoor remediation after an anthrax attack, and the detention and removal of illegal aliens.  He was also Editor-in-Chief of Operations Research from 2000 to 2005. Wein has won several awards, including the 1993 Erlang Prize for the outstanding applied probabilist under 35 years of age and the 2002 Koopman Prize for the best paper in military operations research.

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Rebecca Slayton Affiliated Faculty at CISAC, and Lecturer in Science, Technology, and Society Commentator

Lawrence M. Wein

Graduate School of Business
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5015

(650) 724-1676 (650) 725-0468
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Jeffrey S. Skoll Professor of Management Science
CISAC Affiliated Faculty Member
Wein.jpg PhD

Lawrence Wein is the Jeffrey S. Skoll Professor of Management Science at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and an affiliated faculty member at CISAC. After getting a PhD in Operations Research from Stanford University in 1988, he spent 14 years at the Sloan School of Management at MIT, where he was the DEC Leaders for Manufacturing Professor of Management Science. His research interests include mathematical models in operations management, medicine and biology.

Since 2001, he has analyzed a variety of homeland security problems. His homeland security work includes four papers in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, on an emergency response to a smallpox attack, an emergency response to an anthrax attack, a biometric analysis of the US-VISIT Program, and an analysis of a bioterror attack on the milk supply. He has also published the Washington Post op-ed "Unready for Anthrax" (2003) and the New York Times op-ed "Got Toxic Milk?", and has written papers on port security, indoor remediation after an anthrax attack, and the detention and removal of illegal aliens.

For his homeland security research, Wein has received several awards from the International Federation of Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), including the Koopman Prize for the best paper in military operations research, the INFORMS Expository Writing Award, the INFORMS President’s Award for contributions to society, the Philip McCord Morse Lectureship, the Frederick W. Lanchester Prize for best research publication, and the George E. Kimball Medal. He was Editor-in-Chief of Operations Research from 2000 to 2005, and was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 2009.   

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Lawrence M. Wein Professor of Management Science, Stanford Graduate School of Business; Senior Fellow (by courtesy), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Speaker
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The Twilight of the Bombs

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Richard Rhodes is the author or editor of twenty-three books including The Making of the Atomic Bomb, which won a Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction, a National Book Award and a National Book Critics Circle Award; Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb, which was shortlisted for a Pulitzer Prize in History; an investigation of the roots of private violence, Why They Kill; a personal memoir, A Hole in the World; a biography, John James Audubon; and four novels. He has received numerous fellowships for research and writing, including grants from the Ford Foundation, the Guggenheim Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation Program in International Peace and Security and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. He has been a visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT and a host and correspondent for documentaries on public television's Frontline and American Experience series.

He is an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. A third volume of nuclear history, Arsenals of Folly: The Making of the Nuclear Arms Race, was published in October 2007 by Alfred A. Knopf. It examines the international politics of nuclear weapons thoughout the Cold War.  A fourth and final volume, The Twilight of the Bomb, is currently in bookstores. Rhodes lectures frequently to audiences in the United States and abroad (see Lecturing tab, above). With his wife Ginger Rhodes, a clinical psychologist in private practice in San Francisco, he lives near Half Moon Bay, California.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Richard Rhodes Author, 1988 Pulitzer Prize Speaker
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Role of Risk Informed Methods for Critical Nuclear Infrastructure

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Edward Blandford is a Postdoctoral Fellow at CISAC. His research focuses on nuclear reactor design at the system level as it impacts security issues for future nuclear infrastructure. In particular, his interests involve the design of advanced reactors with an emphasis on security, emergency preparedness, threat of theft of material, and international safeguards. This work also focuses on the utilization of risk analysis early in the reactor design process to ensure that safety, security, and structural functional requirements are met reliably. In addition to security applications, other research interests include nuclear reactor thermal-hydraulics in support of the safety of nuclear installations, probabilistic risk assessment, performance-based regulation, best-estimate code verification and validation, and material degradation management.

Before coming to CISAC, Edward was a graduate student researcher in the Nuclear Engineering Department at the University of California at Berkeley. His Ph.D. dissertation focused on the design of reduced-scale experiments for advanced high temperature reactors and their role in validating computational models. He received his M.S. in nuclear engineering from UC Berkeley in 2008.

Prior to pursuing graduate work, he worked at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) as a project manager in the Steam Generator Management Program where he managed all thermal-hydraulics related research activity. While at EPRI, Edward worked on a variety of industry-related activities related to material degradation issues and improving plant management.  

Edward studied mechanical engineering at the University of California at Los Angles where he earned a B.S. in 2002. During this period of time, he held Department of Energy research fellowships at both Brookhaven National Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory working on nuclear and particle physics applications respectively.

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Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Edward Blandford Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker CISAC
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Why Do Terrorists Kill Civilians Versus Soldiers?

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Risa Brooks holds her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California at San Diego and is currently Assistant Professor of Political Science at Marquette University. Brooks has also served as a post-doctoral fellow at CISAC, a Research Associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and an affiliate at Harvard University’s Olin Institute for Strategic Studies. Brooks’s research focuses on civil-military relations, military effectiveness, Middle East politics, and terrorist organizations. In her most recent work, she has begun to apply her broad expertise in these areas to examining the determinants of terrorist groups’ strategic choices. In addition to the many articles and book chapters she has published, Brooks authored Shaping Strategy: The Civil-Military Politics of Strategic Assessment (Princeton University Press, 2008) and Political-Military Relations and the Stability of Arab Regimes (Adelphi paper 324, Oxford University Press, 1998), and served as editor (with Elizabeth Stanley) of Creating Military Power: the Sources of Military Effectiveness (Stanford University Press, 2007).

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Risa Brooks Assistant Professor of Political Science Speaker Marquette University
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Nonproliferation Policy Crossroads: The Strange Case of U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation

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Gerald Warburg earned his BA in Political Science and Education at Hampshire College and MA in Political Science at Stanford in 1979, where he worked closely with CISAC fellows. He is now Executive Vice President of Cassidy & Associates, a prominent public affairs firm in Washington DC, and has served as a visiting professor at Georgetown University, Penn, Stanford, and Hampshire. He has also recently been appointed Professor of Practice of Public Policy at the University of Virginia’s Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. Warburg has more than a decade of experience as a senior aide to members of both the U.S. House and Senate leadership. As Legislative Assistant to U.S. Senate Democratic Whip Alan Cranston on Trade, Defense, and Foreign Policy, he coordinated the Senator’s work on the Committees on Foreign Relations, Intelligence, and the International Finance and Monetary Policy Subcommittee of the Banking Committee. Previously, Mr. Warburg served as Legislative Assistant for Energy, Environment and Trade issues to U.S. Representative Jonathan B. Bingham, Chairman of the International Economic Policy and Trade Subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Mr. Warburg was also an aide to U.S. Senator John Tunney on the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy. He is the author of Conflict and Consensus: The Struggle Between Congress and the President Over Foreign Policymaking (Harper & Row, 1989), and a novel (about Stanford China scholars) entitled The Mandarin Club, (Bancroft Press, 2006).

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Gerry Warburg Executive Vice President Speaker Cassidy & Associates
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Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Martha Crenshaw

Not in residence

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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Emerita
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science, Emerita
crenshaw_martha.jpg PhD

Martha Crenshaw is a senior fellow emerita at CISAC and FSI. She taught at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut, from 1974 to 2007.  She has published extensively on the subject of terrorism.  In 2011 Routledge published Explaining Terrorism, a collection of her previously published work.  A book co-authored with Gary LaFree titled Countering Terrorism was published by the Brookings Institution Press in 2017. She recently authored a report for the U.S. Institute of Peace, “Rethinking Transnational Terrorism:  An Integrated Approach”.

 

 She served on the Executive Board of Women in International Security and is a former President and Councilor of the International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP). In 2005-2006 she was a Guggenheim Fellow. She was a lead investigator with the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and the Response to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland from 2005 to 2017.  She is currently affiliated with the National Counterterrorism, Innovation, Technology, and Education (NCITE) Center, also a Center of Excellence for the Department of Homeland Security.  In 2009 the National Science Foundation/Department of Defense Minerva Initiative awarded her a grant for a research project on "mapping terrorist organizations," which is ongoing.  She has served on several committees of the National Academy of Sciences.  In 2015 she was elected a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy.  She is the recipient of the International Studies Association International Security Studies Section Distinguished Scholar Award for 2016. Also in 2016 Ghent University awarded her an honorary doctorate.  She serves on the editorial boards of the journals International Security, Security Studies, Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, Orbis, and Terrorism and Political Violence.

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Martha Crenshaw Senior Fellow Speaker CISAC & FSI
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Mapping Militant Organizations

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Amy Zegart Associate Professor Speaker UCLA School of Public Affairs
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Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Siegfried S. Hecker

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C220
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

(650) 725-6468 (650) 723-0089
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Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Emeritus
Research Professor, Management Science and Engineering, Emeritus
hecker2.jpg PhD

Siegfried S. Hecker is a professor emeritus (research) in the Department of Management Science and Engineering and a senior fellow emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). He was co-director of CISAC from 2007-2012. From 1986 to 1997, Dr. Hecker served as the fifth Director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Hecker is an internationally recognized expert in plutonium science, global threat reduction, and nuclear security.

Dr. Hecker’s current research interests include nuclear nonproliferation and arms control, nuclear weapons policy, nuclear security, the safe and secure expansion of nuclear energy, and plutonium science. At the end of the Cold War, he has fostered cooperation with the Russian nuclear laboratories to secure and safeguard the vast stockpile of ex-Soviet fissile materials. In June 2016, the Los Alamos Historical Society published two volumes edited by Dr. Hecker. The works, titled Doomed to Cooperate, document the history of Russian-U.S. laboratory-to-laboratory cooperation since 1992.

Dr. Hecker’s research projects at CISAC focus on cooperation with young and senior nuclear professionals in Russia and China to reduce the risks of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism worldwide, to avoid a return to a nuclear arms race, and to promote the safe and secure global expansion of nuclear power. He also continues to assess the technical and political challenges of nuclear North Korea and the nuclear aspirations of Iran.

Dr. Hecker joined Los Alamos National Laboratory as graduate research assistant and postdoctoral fellow before returning as technical staff member following a tenure at General Motors Research. He led the laboratory's Materials Science and Technology Division and Center for Materials Science before serving as laboratory director from 1986 through 1997, and senior fellow until July 2005.

Among his professional distinctions, Dr. Hecker is a member of the National Academy of Engineering; foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; fellow of the TMS, or Minerals, Metallurgy and Materials Society; fellow of the American Society for Metals; fellow of the American Physical Society, honorary member of the American Ceramics Society; and fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

His achievements have been recognized with the Presidential Enrico Fermi Award, the 2020 Building Bridges Award from the Pacific Century Institute, the 2018 National Engineering Award from the American Association of Engineering Societies, the 2017 American Nuclear Society Eisenhower Medal, the American Physical Society’s Leo Szilard Prize, the American Nuclear Society's Seaborg Medal, the Department of Energy's E.O. Lawrence Award, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Medal, among other awards including the Alumni Association Gold Medal and the Undergraduate Distinguished Alumni Award from Case Western Reserve University, where he earned his bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degrees in metallurgy.

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Siegfried S. Hecker Co-director, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Professor (Research), Department of Management Science and Engineering Speaker
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George Packer in Conversation with Tobias Wolff and Debra Satz

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George Packer is a staff writer for The New Yorker and the author, most recently, of The Assassins' Gate: America in Iraq. That book, which traced America's entry into the Iraq war and the subsequent troubled occupation, won the Overseas Press Club's 2005 Cornelius Ryan Award and the Helen Bernstein Book Award of the New York Public Library, was a finalist for the 2005 Pulitzer Prize, and was named by The New York Times as one of the ten best books of the 2005.

Packer's articles, essays, and reviews on foreign affairs, American politics, and literature have appeared in The New York Times Magazine, Harper's, Dissent and other publications. He received the 2006 Edward Weintal Prize for Diplomatic Reporting from Georgetown and his magazine reporting has won three Overseas Press Club awards.

Packer will be in conversation with Tobias Wolff (English, Stanford) and Debra Satz (Philosophy, Stanford). Wolff has written several books including Our Story Begins, winner of the 2008 Story Prize, The Barracks Thief, Old School and This Boy's Life. He has also been the editor of Best American Short Stories and The Vintage Book of Contemporary American Short Stories. His work appears regularly in "The New Yorker," "The Atlantic," "Harper's," and other magazines and literary journals.

Debra Satz is the Marta Sutton Weeks Professor of Ethics in Society, Professor of Philosophy and the Director of the Center on Ethics. Her research focuses on the ethical limits of markets, the place of equality in political philosophy, theories of rational choice, democratic theory, feminist philosophy, and issues of international justice. Her work has appeared in Philosophy & Public Affairs, Ethics, Journal of Philosophy, and World Bank Economic Review.

On Friday, May 20 Rush Rehm (Drama and Classics, Stanford) will direct a performance of Packer's 2008 play Betrayed.

For more information, please visit Stanford's Ethics and War Series website.

Annenberg Auditorium
435 Lasuen Mall
Stanford University
Stanford, CA, 94305

Tobias Wolff English Commentator Stanford
George Packer Journalist, novelist and playwright Speaker
Debra Satz Philosophy Commentator Stanford University
Seminars
Stanford Ethics & War Series (2010-2011)

Performance of Trimpin's Drama, The Gurs Zyklus

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The Gurs Zyklus, performance of Trimpin's stirring and uncategorizable reflection on memory and remembrance, tragedy and renewal, exploration and wonder.From the astonishing mind of MacArthur "Genius Award"- winning inventor and sound sculptor, Trimpin: A stirring and uncategorizable reflection on memory and remembrance, tragedy and renewal, exploration and wonder.

Combining live performance with kinetic sculpture, and world history with personal biography, The Gurs Zyklus ("Gurs Cycle") represents the fruits of a lifetime of curiosity, investigation, inspired tinkering, and riveting invention on the part of Trimpin, the brilliant artist of one name and no definable genre.

As a youth in southwestern Germany in the 1950s, Gerhard Trimpin (as he was then known) was haunted by the fact that, in the Nazi era, the Jews from his town had all been deported to the internment camp at Gurs, near the Spanish-French border. Decades later, Trimpin worked with maverick composer Conlon Nancarrow, who revealed that he, too, had been interned at Gurs-during the Spanish Civil War. More recently, a 2006 New Yorker profile of Trimpin mentioned this Gurs connection. Trimpin was contacted shortly thereafter by Victor Rosenberg, a descendant of a family interned at Gurs, who, having read the article, offered the artist the use of more than 200 of his family's letters mailed from the camp.

These and other elements, united by history, profound coincidence, and the power of Trimpin's imagination, weave together in a stage performance truly like no other: Vocalists sing and speak texts drawn from the Rosenberg letters into "fire organs" of Trimpin's invention. Projections of historic images from Gurs meld with film from Trimpin's own retracing of the journey by train to the camp. The music of Nancarrow meets sounds derived from bark patterns of the trees near Gurs-among the last living "witnesses" to the camp's dark history. Throughout, Gurs Zyklus offers a novel perspective on an important story now at the edges of living memory, as well as a stage experience that is immersive and deeply moving.

POST-PERFORMANCE DISCUSSION with Trimpin and Jenny Bilfield.

This event is sponsored by Stanford Lively Arts.

For more information, please visit the Stanford Ethics and War Series website.

Stanford Memorial Auditorium
551 Serra Mall
Stanford Univeristy
Stanford, CA 94305

Seminars
Stanford Ethics & War Series (2010-2011)
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