A threat in every port
Two weeks before President Lee Myung-bak’s first full-fledged summit meeting with President Barack Obama, Pantech Fellow alumni of Stanford University’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) will present their research findings on U.S.-South Korean relations and North Korea at a forum at the Seoul Press Center on June 2 from 2-5 P.M.
The public event, “The United States and Korea: Toward a Shared Future,” will feature Dr. Thomas Fingar, a Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford and the former U.S. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, who will deliver a keynote address on “The United States and Northeast Asia.” National Assembly Speaker Kim Hyong O, American Ambassador Kathleen Stephens, and the Shorenstein APARC Director, Stanford University Professor Gi-Wook Shin, will offer congratulatory remarks.
Stanford Pantech Fellowships alumni will participate in two panels on U.S.-South Korean relations and North Korea. Scott Snyder, director of the Asia Foundation’s Center for U.S.-Korea Policy, will discuss his recent report, “Pursuing a Comprehensive Vision for the U.S.–South Korea Alliance.” David Straub, Korean Studies Program acting director at Shorenstein APARC, will review the work and findings of the “New Beginnings” policy research group on U.S.-South Korean relations. Donald Macintyre, Time Magazine’s first bureau chief in Seoul (2001-2006), will show how life in North Korea is changing at the grassroots level and what these changes mean for the international community's approach toward Pyongyang. Daniel Sneider, Shorenstein APARC associate director for research, will analyze North Korea as a peninsular, regional and global problem and discuss how it fits into the Obama administration’s overall foreign and security policy. The panels will be moderated by Seoul National University Professor Yoon Young-kwan, a former foreign minister, and Korea University Professor Hyug Baek Im.
The Pantech Group is a major supporter of the Korean Studies Program (KSP) at Stanford’s Shorenstein APARC and its programs of policy research on Korea and U.S.-Korean relations and the fostering of next-generation leaders in Korean affairs. Since the inception of the Pantech Fellowships for Mid-Career Professionals in 2004, nine experts on Korean policy affairs from government, journalism, and academia have each spent a year at Stanford’s Shorenstein APARC engaged in cutting-edge research.
The forum will be conducted in English. Interpretation will not be provided.
The Press Center, Seoul, Korea
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.
From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.
Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."
More than 75 people connected to CISAC's past and present gathered in Encina Hall on Friday, May 29, to reminisce and look toward the center's next quarter century. The CISAC String Quartet led by Paul Stockton, who has just left CISAC to work as an assistant defense secretary, welcomed guests with concertos by Bach and Beethoven. Meanwhile, a slide show depicting CISAC's history through the decades brought back memories of potluck meals, receptions and group clean-up parties at Galvez House.
Co-Director Siegfried Hecker's opening and closing remarks acted as bookends to speeches highlighting the center's different eras. Law School Professor John Barton, a member of the center's executive committee, was a founder of CISAC's predecessor organization, the Center for International Security and Arms Control. He spoke about how turbulence on campus in the 1970s surrounding the Vietnam War led to courses focusing on international security matters under the Stanford Arms Control Program and, eventually, the center's establishment. Gloria Duffy, president of the Commonwealth Club of California, was a CISAC fellow from 1980-82, and spoke about the 1980s as "a time of alarm in our field." Acting Co-Director Lynn Eden, who was affiliated with the center as a fellow from 1987 to 1990, spoke about the 1990s, followed by Jessica McLaughlin, a 2005 graduate from CISAC's honor's program, who explained how she continues to apply the skills she learned in the program to her job as a management consultant. Former U.S. Defense Secretary William J. Perry, a former CISAC co-director, looked to the future and what the center must do to remain as effective and relevant to international security as it has been in the past. John Lewis, Scott Sagan, Michael May and David Holloway, who have all held leadership positions at CISAC, also made remarks about the center.
Background Music by the CISAC Quartet:
Beethoven Opus 59 #1
Bach Brandenburg Concerto #3, first movement
Siegfried Hecker
Dr. Siegfried Hecker is a professor (research) in the Department of Management Science and Engineering, a senior fellow at FSI, and co-director of CISAC. He is also an emeritus director of Los Alamos National Laboratory.
John Barton '68: CISAC in the 1970s
Professor John Barton is one of the founders of CISAC's predecessor organization (the Center for International Security and Arms Control), a professor at the Law School, and a member of CISAC's Executive Committee.
Gloria Duffy: CISAC in the 1980s
Dr. Gloria Duffy was a CISAC fellow from 1980 to 1982. She served as a deputy assistant secretary of defense during the Clinton Administration. Dr. Duffy is currently president of the Commonwealth Club of California.
Lynn Eden: CISAC in the 1990s
Dr. Lynn Eden is acting co-director and a senior research scholar at
the Center. She was a CISAC fellow from 1987-88 and 1989-1990.
Jessica McLaughlin '05: CISAC in the New Millennium
Ms. Jessica McLaughlin graduated from Stanford in 2005, majoring in management science and engineering, with a certificate in Honors in International Security Studies through CISAC's undergraduate honors program. Her thesis, "A Bayesian Updating Model for Intelligence Analysis," won CISAC's William J. Perry Prize for excellence in policy-relevant research in international security studies. She is a management consultant at Oliver Wyman.
William J. Perry BS'49, MS '50: The Future of CISAC
Professor William J. Perry holds several positions at Stanford and was previously a co-director of CISAC. He was the 19th secretary of defense of the United States, serving from February 1994 to January 1997.
Siegfried Hecker
Special thanks to the CISAC Quartet:
Beverly Jean Harlan, Anne Prescott, Nancy Solomon, Paul N. Stockton
CISAC Conference Room
The forthcoming U.S. Nuclear Posture Review should broaden the traditional focus of such policy reviews on deterrence requirements and include a thorough analysis of how U.S. nuclear declaratory policy influences the likelihood of nuclear proliferation, the consequences of proliferation, and perceptions of the illegitimacy of nuclear terrorism. Such a broader frame of analysis leads to the conclusion that it would be in the U.S. national interest to adopt a no-first-use declaratory policy, stating clearly that 'the role of U.S. nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear weapons use by other nuclear weapons states against the United States, our allies, and our armed forces, and to be able respond, with an appropriate range of second-strike nuclear retaliation options, if necessary, in the event that deterrence fails.'