'The Global Nuclear Future' -- special edition of Daedalus journal
CISAC Co-Director Scott D. Sagan and Steven E. Miller of Harvard's Belfer Center have jointly edited a special two-volume issue of Daedalus, the quarterly journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, on "The Global Nuclear Future."
Volume 1 was published in October 2009. It includes the following articles by CISAC scholars:
- Nuclear power without nuclear proliferation? by Steven E. Miller & Scott D. Sagan
- The Growth of Nuclear Power: Drivers & Constraints by Richard K. Lester & CISAC Visiting Professor Robert Rosner
- Shared Responsibilities for Nuclear Disarmament by Scott D. Sagan
Volume 2, which will be published in Winter 2010, will feature the following articles by CISAC scholars:
- The Key Role of the Back-end in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle by CISAC Consulting Professor Thomas Isaacs & Charles McCombie
- Lessons Learned from the North Korean Crises by CISAC Co-Director Siegfried S. Hecker
- Alternative Nuclear Futures by Steven E. Miller & Scott D. Sagan
Why Democracy Matters
Condoleezza Rice is the Thomas and Barbara Stephenson Senior Fellow on Public Policy at the Hoover Institution and professor of political science at Stanford University.
From January 2005 to 2009, she served as the 66th secretary of state of the United States. Before serving as America's chief diplomat, she served as assistant to the president for national security affairs (national security adviser) from January 2001 to 2005.
Rice joined the Stanford University faculty as a professor of political science in 1981 and served as Stanford University's provost from 1993 to 1999. She was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution from 1991 to 1993 and returned to the Hoover Institution after serving as provost until 2001. As a professor, Rice won two of the highest teaching honors: the 1984 Walter J. Gores Award for Excellence in Teaching and the 1993 School of Humanities and Sciences Dean's Award for Distinguished Teaching.
She has authored and coauthored several books, including Germany Unified and Europe Transformed: A Study in Statecraft (1995), with Philip Zelikow, The Gorbachev Era (1986), with Alexander Dallin, and Uncertain Allegiance: The Soviet Union and the Czechoslovak Army (1984).
Rice served as a member of the boards of directors for the Chevron Corporation, the Charles Schwab Corporation, the Transamerica Corporation, and the International Advisory Council of J.P. Morgan. She was a founding board member of the Center for a New Generation, an educational support fund for schools in East Palo Alto and East Menlo Park, California, and was vice president of the Boys and Girls Club of the Peninsula. In addition, she has served on several local and national boards of foundations and charitable organizations.
She currently serves as a member of the board of trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. In addition, she is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Rice earned her bachelor's degree in political science, cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa, from the University of Denver in 1974; her master's from the University of Notre Dame in 1975; and her Ph.D. from the Graduate School of International Studies at the University of Denver in 1981.
CISAC Conference Room
Weighing the Case For a Convention to Limit Cyberwarfare
The United States must take steps to protect its critical national infrastructure against serious cyberattack. One step might be to negotiate a multilateral convention to limit such attacks by states, which are the most likely source of an attack at the level of greatest concern. Although verification of compliance would be difficult, the convention in and of itself might be worthwhile for its norm-setting value, to be a restraining factor in the offensive decisions of other states, and as a necessary step in obtaining fuller international cooperation in controlling the general cyberthreat.
On the other hand, the U.S. military believes that cyberattack in its own hands may be an important addition to its war-making capacity. It may be unwilling to limit that capacity, particularly as the understanding of cyberwarfare potential is still being formed.
Balancing these conflicting objectives will require a full debate and executive decision. This process will have to be carried out by a special high-level government group because of the sensitive and fragile nature of certain aspects of the information involved.
One model of a convention that could serve as a starting point would commit the parties to no-first-use of cyberattack directed at elements of another party's critical infrastructure if the disruption from that attack was intended to be widespread, long-lasting, or severe. One reason for these thresholds is to differentiate continuing, manageable lower-level attacks from those that constitute a serious violation by a state-party. All the terms in this commitment could be defined in an Understanding Annex, as in the ENMOD Convention, and would be the subject of negotiation. The convention would also preclude assistance to others in conducting prohibited attacks.
Because the cyberthreat is evolving rapidly and is difficult to define, any proposed solution is very unlikely to address the problem effectively for the long term or perhaps even the medium term. On the other hand, it may be important to constrain this form of warfare in the relatively early stages of its development. The type of limited convention described in this article strikes an appropriate balance by establishing some important initial parameters that could serve as the basis for more comprehensive agreements in the future.
Countering Terrorism: What Works?
The Obama administration has adopted a new policy toward terrorism, rejecting the "war on terror" for a more nuanced approach. Is the new strategy likely to be more effective than the old in destroying Al Qaida and preventing future violence from extremists?
Martha Crenshaw is a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli Institute, and professor of political science (by courtesy). Her current research focuses on why the United States is the target of terrorism, the effectiveness of counter terrorism policies, and mapping terrorist organizations. Professor Crenshaw served on the Executive Board of Women in International Security and chaired the American Political Science Association (APSA) Task Force on Political Violence and Terrorism. She was a Guggenheim Fellow in 2005-2006. Her edited book, The Consequences of Counterterrorism in Democracies, is being published by the Russell Sage Foundation.
Bechtel Conference Center
Martha Crenshaw
Not in residence
Martha Crenshaw is a senior fellow emerita at CISAC and FSI. She taught at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut, from 1974 to 2007. She has published extensively on the subject of terrorism. In 2011 Routledge published Explaining Terrorism, a collection of her previously published work. A book co-authored with Gary LaFree titled Countering Terrorism was published by the Brookings Institution Press in 2017. She recently authored a report for the U.S. Institute of Peace, “Rethinking Transnational Terrorism: An Integrated Approach”.
She served on the Executive Board of Women in International Security and is a former President and Councilor of the International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP). In 2005-2006 she was a Guggenheim Fellow. She was a lead investigator with the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and the Response to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland from 2005 to 2017. She is currently affiliated with the National Counterterrorism, Innovation, Technology, and Education (NCITE) Center, also a Center of Excellence for the Department of Homeland Security. In 2009 the National Science Foundation/Department of Defense Minerva Initiative awarded her a grant for a research project on "mapping terrorist organizations," which is ongoing. She has served on several committees of the National Academy of Sciences. In 2015 she was elected a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy. She is the recipient of the International Studies Association International Security Studies Section Distinguished Scholar Award for 2016. Also in 2016 Ghent University awarded her an honorary doctorate. She serves on the editorial boards of the journals International Security, Security Studies, Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, Orbis, and Terrorism and Political Violence.
Using intelligence to shape the future
Anticipating Opportunities: Using Intelligence to Shape the Future
"We spend $45 billion annually to reduce uncertainty, to help us combat threats to our nation, our people, and our security," said Payne Distinguished Lecturer Thomas Fingar in his third Payne lecture on October 21, devoted to anticipating the future -- "not for purposes of prediction but for purposes of shaping it." Noting that strategic intelligence treats the future neither as "inevitable or immutable," Fingar employed real-life examples from his career in national intelligence (most recently as deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and chairman of the National Intelligence Council) to explore concrete ways intelligence can be used to move developments in a more favorable direction.
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World examined the trends which will "drive, shape and constrain" individuals, governments, and nations around the world. Among prominent trends, he cited globalization, which will provide unprecedented prosperity but greater inequality; the rise of the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India, and China; the rise of new powers such as Indonesia, Turkey, and Iran; and the coming demographic boom, which will add 1.2 billion people to the world, with less than 3 percent of that occurring in the West.
The Geopolitical Implications of Climate Change. Instructed by the Congress to provide an assessment of the impact of global climate change, given controversy about the imminence of the threat and man's role in it, the NIC studied which regions and countries would be most dramatically affected by climate change, with a focus on water, food production, and changes in weather patterns. The results remain classified, because of the potential impact on vulnerable countries.
The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. This estimate, attacked from both the right and the left, concluded with a moderate to high degree of confidence that Iran had not obtained sufficient fissile material from external sources (to make a bomb) and that its fastest route to produce a nuclear weapon would be through domestic production of enriched uranium. The NIE also judged that Iran had halted the weaponization portions of its nuclear program in 2003, but had retained the option to pursue a weapon and whether to do so was a "political decision" which could be made at any time.
Special IPS-CISAC Colloquium - Beyond Hearts and Minds: The Impact of Afghan Political Disenchantment on US Options in Afghanistan
With a flawed Afghan election and a request for more troop increases by General Stanley McChrystal, there is renewed attention toward whether and how the United States can turn the situation in Afghanistan around. Several options for going forward have been proposed: a resource- and manpower-heavy counterinsurgency strategy; a more scaled down counterterrorism campaign; and various models in between those extremes. Yet regardless of which option is chosen a key ingredient of success will be the degree to which Afghan communities are invested. Unfortunately, regaining their trust and confidence will be no small task given the current environment. High civilian casualties and a corresponding failure to protect Afghans from the daily brutality of insurgents, criminal groups, and warlords lead Afghans to regard international military as impotent, malevolent, or both. Though billions have been spent to build schools, support economic development, and other initiatives, corruption, security concerns, and mismanagement lead Afghans to view these projects as symbols of Afghan and international fecklessness and failure rather than reasons to cast their lot with them in the future. Successful Taliban propaganda, often based on legitimate community grievances, has further fueled mistrust between the Afghan population and those who are supposed to be protecting their interests.
While there has been much talk about enhancing the legitimacy of the Afghan government and winning "hearts and minds", it seems unlikely that elections or military slush funds will get anywhere near what Afghan communities perceive as the problem. Based in large part on on-the-ground observations and discussions with Afghan civil society groups, this talk will focus on some of these community perceptions and narratives about what is fueling the conflict with a view toward better analyzing the strategic implications.
Erica Gaston is a human rights lawyer consulting on civilian casualties for the Open Society Institute in Afghanistan and Pakistan. She first visited Afghanistan in 2007 to conduct research for a legal study on private security companies, and then moved to Kabul in 2008 with the Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC), whose mission is to encourage warring parties to provide compensation, victim assistance, recognition or other redress to victims of conflict. In addition to her work with CIVIC, she worked extensively with the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, and was the lead editor on their 2008 report on the conduct of pro-government forces in Afghanistan. She also worked with the Afghan NGO WADAN, which focuses on grassroots civic education, governance and human rights advocacy.
In addition to her work in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Erica has also been involved in other human rights documentation and advocacy related to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in the summer of 2006, situations of ethnic conflict in Ethiopia, cluster munition use, among others. She has also published legal articles related to the accountability of private security companies, issues and problems inherent in the humanitarian project, and the improvement of emergency preparedness for homeland security and counter-terrorism purposes. She is a blog contributor to the Huffington Post and has provided commentary on CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, CBC, and other local and international radio programming.
Erica graduated from Harvard Law School in 2007. She graduated with a B.A. in International Relations, with honors in International Security, from Stanford University.
CISAC Conference Room
2009-10 CISAC fellows and visiting scholars
CISAC is pleased to announce fellows and visitors in residence at the Center during the 2009-10 academic year.
- Max Abrahms
University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Political Science
Strategic Logic of Terrorism - Undraa Agvaanluvsan
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Nuclear Experimental Group
Energy, Security, and Economic Implications of Nuclear Industry Development in Mongolia - Chaim Braun
CISAC
Nuclear Power Growth and its Nonproliferation Implications in India, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, and South America - Sarah Zukerman Daly
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science
Guns, Politics or Bankruptcy: Disentangling the Determinants of Armed Organizations Post-war Trajectories - Matthias Englert
Darmstadt University of Technology, Interdisciplinary Research Group in Science Technology and Security
Managing the Proliferation Risks of Gas Centrifuges - Technical and Political Measures - Andrea Everett
Princeton University, Department of Politics
Responding to Catastrophe: Democratic Society and the Origins of Humanitarian Intervention - Kelly Greenhill
Tufts University and Research Fellow, Harvard University
Fear Factor: Understanding the Origins and Consequences of Beliefs about National Security and the Threats We Face - Tom Isaacs
Director, Office of Planning and Special Studies, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Internationalization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle and the Role of the U.S. - Joseph Martz
Los Alamos National Laboratory - Katherine Marvel
University of Cambridge, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
Nuclear Energy in Africa: Utility, Feasibility, and Security - Emily Meierding
University of Chicago, Department of Political Science
Fueling Conflict, Facilitating Peace: Oil & International Territorial Disputes - Eric Morris
Ford Dorsey Program in International Policy Studies
Civilian Capacity for Peace Operations - Charles Perrow
Yale University, Department of Sociology - Brenna Powell
Harvard University, Department of Government and Social Policy
Normalizing Security After Conflict: Jobs for the Boys and Justice for the Hoods - Arian Pregenzer
Sandia National Laboratories, Department of Cooperative International Programs
International Technical Cooperation to Support Arms Control and Nonproliferation: Review of Past Approaches, Identification of Lessons Learned, and Recommendations for the Future - William Reckmeyer
San Jose State University, Department of Anthropology
Systemic Connections: Developing an Integrated National Strategy to Promote International Security and Cooperation - Jefferey Richardson,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Science as a Tool for International Engagement - Robert Rosner
University of Chicago, Distinguished Service Professor, Departments of Astronomy & Astrophysics and Physics, and Laboratory Director, Argonne National Laboratory - Jan Stupl
University of Hamburg, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy
Missile Technology Control Regime - Michael Sulmeyer
Stanford Law School - Phil Taubman
Former Associate Editor and Reporter, The New York Times - Jianqun Teng
China Arms Control and Disarmament Association
Nuclear Free World Initiative in the Context of Sino-U.S. Relations - John Vitacca
United States Air Force
Nuclear Policy Issues - Gang Zhao
Chinese Academy of S & T for Development (CASTED)
Deepening the China-U.S. Relationship through Collaboration in Science and Technology with Particular Attention to Alternative Energy Solutions - Yunhua Zou
General Armaments Department, People's Liberation Army, China
Space Arms Control; Security Cooperation with China; U.S.-China Relations