New threats of terrorism are prompting the need for swift action to better secure nuclear material and strong radiation sources. Are measures already in place enough? The Stanford-Salzburg initiative suggests not.

This article analyzes the supply and demand sides in nuclear smuggling, as well as intermediaries between them, based on the 700 illicit trafficking incidents collected by the Stanford Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft, and Orphan Radiation Sources (DSTO) for the period 1991 to 2002. The supply side consists of people with access to nuclear and other radioactive material. It can be subdivided into civilian employees at source facilities, ranging from technicians to top managers; military personnel; and security guards. Intermediaries--traffickers and middlemen--can be categorized as amateurs, opportunist businessmen and firms, and organized crime groups. The demand side is represented by proliferating nation states, terrorist organizations, religious sects, separatist movements, and criminal groups or individuals interested in using nuclear and other radioactive material for malevolent purposes, such as murder, deliberate exposure, blackmail, and extortion.

International efforts to improve the security of nuclear material and facilities from theft and sabotage were intensified by the attacks of September 11. But the magnitude of the changes that are needed to protect against terrorist attacks like those of September 11 has not yet been widely appreciated, perhaps in part because of beliefs in some countries that what happened in the US on September 11 “can’t happen here.” This report will discuss the relevant features of the September 11 attacks, the recent illicit trafficking in nuclear and radioactive materials that might benefit terrorists, and the international efforts to improve physical protection after September 11.

After the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991, illicit trafficking of nuclear and other radioactive material emerged as a serious international concern. The economic and social conditions that followed the collapse left nuclear and radioactive material often poorly guarded and vulnerable to theft. In the early 1990s, Europe observed a sharp increase in nuclear smuggling incidents, as stolen nuclear and other radioactive material was brought from the former Soviet republics to Western Europe in the hope of finding a market. Since 1994, however, reported illicit trafficking incidents in Europe have declined. By contrast, since 1999 there has been an increase in such incidents in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Turkey. Analysts have long speculated that nuclear smugglers would exploit this region--known as the southern tier--as a transit corridor.

This report looks at the illicit trafficking situation in the southern tier and Turkey in an attempt to establish whether these regions have become new routes for smuggling nuclear and other radioactive material. It discusses reported incidents of illicit trafficking in these countries, assesses their responses to the threat of trafficking, and evaluates foreign assistance provided to the region to combat this smuggling. The report concludes with recommendations for improving international anti-nuclear smuggling efforts.

The events of 11 September 2001 require a major international initiative to review nuclear materials and facilities protection worldwide. Matthew and George Bunn recommend a range of specific steps to upgrade security at individual facilities and strengthen national and international standards, in order to secure nuclear material from theft and facilities from sabotage.

This article is based on a paper presented at the IAEA International Symposium on Safeguards in late 2001.