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About the event: China is practicing gray-zone coercion in the Indo-Pacific, deploying military vessels for drills in the waters between Taiwan and the Philippines. This “salami-slicing” strategy, advanced under Xi Jinping, incrementally escalates pressure on neighboring states while remaining below the threshold of open conflict. Disruption of critical sea lanes—through which fuel and food supplies transit—would have catastrophic implications for human populations dependent on uninterrupted maritime traffic. This talk presents research from the Stanford Geopolitical Coercion and Global Health Impact Initiative on maritime disruptions in the Indo-Pacific and what they would mean for human populations if maritime traffic were interrupted in a manner comparable to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with particular attention to effects on food security, energy access, and maternal and child health.

About the speaker: Dr. Ruth Gibson is a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Innovation in Global Health, Affiliated Scholar at CISAC and the Founding Executive Director of the Stanford Geopolitical Human Impact Research Lab—the first research initiative at Stanford University dedicated to examining how geopolitical decisions shape human lives, with particular attention to children. Based in the Department of Pediatrics at the Stanford School of Medicine, the Initiative brings together health modeling, open-source intelligence, and international humanitarian law to produce rigorous, policy-relevant scholarship. She co-leads The Lancet Series on Foreign Engagement and Health in an Era of Geopolitical Crisis with Professor Gary Darmstadt. Dr. Gibson earned her PhD in geopolitical coercion and global health from the University of British Columbia and completed postdoctoral training at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation from 2022 to 2025. Drawing on more than a decade of international global health experience across five continents, her research focuses on the health consequences of sanctions, blockades, and armed conflict, especially their effects on maternal and child health.

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Dr. Ruth Gibson serves as an affiliated scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). Her scholarly expertise encompasses global health, foreign affairs, and strategic studies, with a particular emphasis on enhancing maternal and child health in geopolitically fragile regions—nations contending with war, sanctions, and diplomatic challenges.

Dr. Gibson is presently co-leading a Lancet series on the future of foreign aid, which scrutinizes military aid, humanitarian aid, and official development assistance. This Lancet Series investigates how these forms of foreign aid can be more effectively harnessed and integrated to fulfill their intended goals, while advancing prospects for humanity's future. She collaborates with the United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner, partnering with the Special Rapporteur on Unilateral Coercive Measures to establish a universal monitoring framework for evaluating the effects of sanctions on human rights. She has contributed to reports prepared for the International Criminal Court. Dr. Gibson is a research collaborator with the Global Burden of Disease Consortium at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, supporting efforts in global health estimation and forecasting. She is a reviewer for Nature. Her research has been published in The Lancet and The Lancet Global Health, and her insights on geopolitics and human health have featured in international media outlets, including TIME magazine.

Prior to her academic career, Dr. Gibson dedicated a decade to humanitarian and global health endeavors across eight countries on five continents. Her efforts focused on fragile states confronting poverty, human rights violations, and armed conflict. She led a humanitarian foundation in Madagascar in the aftermath of a military coup, dealing with the disintegration of the healthcare system amid international sanctions on foreign aid. While living in the Middle East, she worked for Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health Affairs and the Health Ministries of Yemen and Somalia on telemedicine-driven medical education, as well as cultivating diplomatic relations through shared fundamental health objectives amid periods of conflict. Throughout this decade of overseas experience, Dr. Gibson directly observed the human costs of war and geopolitical coercion, an experience that informs her ongoing research.

Dr. Gibson earned an Honors Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science from the University of Toronto, a fellowship in Medical Education from the Wilson Center at the University Health Network, and a PhD in Global Health and Strategic Studies from the University of British Columbia. She completed her postdoctoral training at CISAC from 2022 to 2025. She also undertook a postdoctoral fellowship at the Center for Innovation in Global Health (CIGH), Stanford Medicine, between 2022 and 2023, where she currently holds the position of visiting scholar. She completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the Department of Health Policy, Stanford University, from 2024 to 2025. She is conversational in English, Mandarin Chinese, and French.

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In late November, 2025, five human rights organisations petitioned the Israeli High Court of Justice to allow for the evacuation of patients from the Gaza Strip into the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Gaza's health-care infrastructure faces near-total breakdown, with WHO reporting that only 18 of the 36 hospitals in Gaza are partially functioning.1 Essential services, including chemotherapy, intensive care, paediatric care, advanced imaging, and oncological surgery, are almost entirely inaccessible. The situation has been exacerbated by Israel's recent decision to block numerous leading international aid organisations from providing relief in the Gaza Strip on the grounds that they have refused to adhere to newly imposed requirements to list all employees by name to Israeli authorities, which has drawn significant criticism from the humanitarian sector and several of Israel's allies.2,3 According to a UN's press briefing as of mid-December, 2025, 18 500 patients, including 4096 children, are awaiting medical evacuation for treatment of conditions that cannot be treated in Gaza, including paediatric cancer and corrective surgeries.1 The petition is awaiting a High Court hearing and was not signed by the Israeli Medical Association, which argued that the issue is political. Allowing patients' access to medical treatment is a fundamental medical and humanitarian obligation, grounded in the right to health and in professional medical ethics.

Under international humanitarian law, an occupying power has a duty to act “to the fullest extent of the means available to it”, to “ensure the food and medical supplies of the population”, and to “ensur[e] and maintain…[medical] services, public health and hygiene in the occupied territory.”4,5 The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has determined that Israel bears the obligations of an occupying power that are “commensurate with the degree of its effective control” in Gaza.6 The health system in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is funded by the Palestinian Authority. It is designed and committed to care for Palestinian patients at scale, both in response to urgent medical emergencies and as an integrated system capable of providing continuity of care to those who return to Gaza.

Continue reading at thelancet.com.

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I. Executive Summary
This companion report provides an overview of U.S. General License 134A and the current state  of U.S., EU, and UK sanctions targeting Gazprom, Rosneft, their subsidiaries, trade unions, and corporate leadership. It is intended to serve as an expert analysis of the current sanctions  landscape against Gazprom and Rosneft, and to outline next steps in sanctions, considering the  alleged war crimes published by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) in their report, “Willing Accomplices: Gazprom and Rosneft’s Role in the Transport and  Indoctrination of Ukraine’s Children”, on March 25, 2026. Yale HRL has established with high  confidence that Gazprom and Rosneft, together with their subsidiaries and trade unions,  facilitated the transportation and re-education of at least 2,158 Ukrainian children between  February 2022 and March 2025.


On March 12, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control  (OFAC) issued General License 134. This license allows the sale, delivery, and offloading of  Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto shipping vessels on or before 12  March 2026. This authorization is valid until April 11, 2026. The measure, intended to stabilize  global energy markets in light of disruptions caused by US/Israeli attacks on Iran, applies to  previously sanctioned Russian oil and gas entities such as Rosneft and Gazprom. As a result,  Gazprom and Rosneft will receive revenue from transactions permitted under this temporary 30- day license that would otherwise have been prohibited. This sanctions relief financially benefits  two companies alleged to be implicated in war crimes, based on the open-source investigation by the Yale HRL. This general license should not be extended by OFAC after it expires on April 11, 2026.

Download the full report below.

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Companion Report to “Willing Accomplices: Gazprom and Rosneft’s Role in the Transport and Indoctrination of Ukraine’s Children” The Yale Humanitarian Research Lab

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The world’s largest humanitarian crisis is continuing to spiral in Sudan, where the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its former ally, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is poised to enter its fourth year. The impact on civilians has been severe. In a briefing to the United Nations Security Council on January 19, Nazhat Shameem Khan, the deputy prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC), described a campaign of “widespread mass criminality” and characterized the situation as one of “collective torture.” The U.N. Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan released a report on Feb. 17 documenting RSF war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.

Now, new evidence is available about a specific set of international crimes carried out by the RSF. This morning, March 10, the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab (Yale HRL) published a report that relies on remote sensing technology to establish a devastating pattern of RSF conduct in the vicinity of El-Fasher, Sudan between March 31 and June 12, 2024. The report draws on multiple data sources to expose the RSF’s systematic razing of agricultural communities, destruction of livestock corrals, and displacement or killing of inhabitants in the agrarian villages that are a critical local source of food for El-Fasher. During the 10 weeks under analysis, the RSF attacked, sometimes repeatedly, 41 rural farming communities on some of the most fertile land in Darfur. Together with the RSF’s denial of humanitarian access to El-Fasher (including through constructing an earthen wall to block entry and exit completed in October 2025) and targeting of markets and community kitchens within the city, attacks on agricultural communities and systems in the surrounding area formed a critical component of the group’s starvation strategy during the 18-month siege that culminated in the fall of El-Fasher on Oct. 26, 2025.

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On Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a war of aggression against Iran, in clear violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter and customary international law, according to a consensus of international law experts with whom we agree. Iran responded with a series of unlawful attacks against States in the region.

In a piece published last week by Just Security, Professors Yuval Shany and Amichai Cohen suggested the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, and the notably mild or even supportive response by certain western States, reflects a general dissatisfaction with international law on the prohibition on the use of force. They suggest that international law must change to accommodate such States’ frustrations if a viable international legal order is to survive. We disagree.

There is no doubt that there are systemic and structural problems with the international architecture to respond to States that transgress international law. Yet, the inference of a general dissatisfaction with the substantive rules of the U.N. Charter is unfounded. For the overwhelming majority of the 193 Member States in the United Nations, the prohibition on the use of force remains evidently in their interests. Many have made this clear, with varying degrees of directness, in their responses to the current war. 

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In one of the most striking lines of the new International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Commentary on Geneva Convention IV, the authors describe Article 23 — the treaty’s key provision governing the duty to allow the passage of essentials to civilians — as “significantly diminished” in importance in the contemporary context. Put simply, the law has moved on since 1949. This is important in no small part because Article 23, which is subject to several significant limitations and caveats, has been invoked to curtail as much as to ensure humanitarian access (and the delivery of essentials more broadly) in war. As the Commentary aptly implies, today, analyses that rely on the intricacies of Article 23 to defend the denial or limitation of humanitarian access are far more likely to mislead and obscure than they are to illuminate. With tactics of mass deprivation resurgent, the new Commentary’s clear position on this is a vital corrective.

Historically Important, But Deeply Flawed

Geneva Convention IV was the most innovative of the four conventions at the time of their agreement in 1949. In the three quarters of a century since then (and since the ICRC’s original 1958 “Pictet Commentary” the definitive ICRC interpretation of the Geneva Conventions led by Jean Pictet), the subject matter of the treaty has also undergone the most significant evolution in customary international law. Article 23 exemplifies both realities.

In 1949, it was a landmark in the restriction of weaponized deprivation — specifying, for the first time, a legal obligation to allow the free passage of certain essentials, namely those necessary for medical care, religious worship, food, clothing, and tonics, even in contexts of siege or blockade. And yet that advance was deliberately and severely limited. Article 23 defined the core obligations of access narrowly and supplemented them with gaping exceptions that threatened to swallow the rule. The Fourth Convention was significantly more demanding on related issues in contexts of belligerent occupation (Articles 55–62). But outside of that distinctive context, Article 23 was definitive. 

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In international diplomacy, economic sanctions are often portrayed as a clean and humane alternative to war, a supposedly civilised way to pressure governments into compliance with international law without shedding blood. Yet this reassuring narrative hides a devastating truth: sanctions can destroy the health and wellbeing of ordinary people. While they are intended to weaken regimes, they often end up crippling the targeted state’s ability to provide basic healthcare to the very citizens those measures claim to protect. The mechanisms meant to safeguard civilians and allow humanitarian aid frequently collapse, leaving the most vulnerable to pay the highest price for political decisions made far from their reach.

The result is a form of economic warfare that kills not through bombs or bullets, but through the slow erosion of health systems, medicines, and human dignity.

Our recent correspondence in The Lancet examines this reality in the context of the United Nations Security Council’s decision on September 28, 2025, to reimpose multilateral sanctions on Iran. In the piece, we do not take a position on the Security Council’s decision to reimpose multilateral sanctions; rather, our focus is squarely on the potential consequences of this move for Iran’s population, particularly given the severe health impacts seen under previous sanctions. Drawing on evidence from the pre-2015 sanctions period, our analysis in The Lancet shows how these measures shattered Iran’s health system and reveals a deeper structural failure within the international sanctions regime to protect the fundamental right to health.

Continue reading at aljazeera.com.

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Without robust, built-in health protections, sanctions kill civilians as surely as bombs and bullets, as Iran’s broken health system makes clear.

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On Sept 28, 2025, the UN Security Council snapback under Resolution 2231 reinstated multilateral sanctions on Iran related to insufficient compliance in international oversight of its nuclear programme.1 This Correspondence does not take a position on the UN Security Council decision to reimpose multilateral sanctions. We focus on the implications of these geopolitical decisions for Iran's population, against the backdrop of devastating impacts on at-risk populations under previous sanctions.

Continue reading at thelancet.com.

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Co-sponsored with Stanford University Libraries

About the Event: Join us for an engaging conversation with the Ambassador of Estonia to the U.S. Kristjan Prikk, Rose Gottemoeller, and Steven Pifer, who will discuss Russia's war in Ukraine - what's at stake and what we should do about it.
Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine has brought about the most serious reassessment of the European security realities since the end of the Cold War. The epic clash of political wills, the magnitude of military operations, and the scale of atrocities against the Ukrainian people are beyond anything Europe has seen since World War II. The past nine months have forced many to reassess what is possible and impossible in international security A.D. 2022. What is this war about, after all? What's at stake in this – to paraphrase former British PM Chamberlain – "quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom most Americans know nothing?" What should be the lessons for U.S. strategists and policymakers? What are the wider implications for U.S. national security interests, particularly those related to the Indo-Pacific? How has the Alliance supported Ukraine since the war started? What should the end of this war look like and how to get there?

All these questions are relevant and should be carefully weighed with current information from the war as well as historic perspective and regional knowledge in mind.

About the Speakers: 

Estonia's Ambassador to the U.S. Mr. Kristjan Prikk started his mission in Washington, D.C. in May 2021. He is a graduate of the USA Army War College and has served as the National Security Coordinator to the Prime Minister. Prior to arriving in D.C., he was the Permanent Secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense. Among his previous assignments are two other tours in Washington as an Estonian diplomat and work on NATO-Russia and NATO-Ukraine topics at a time when these relationships were considerably less charged than today.

Rose Gottemoeller is the Steven C. Házy Lecturer at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and its Center for International Security and Cooperation. Before joining Stanford, Gottemoeller was the Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019, where she helped to drive forward NATO's adaptation to new security challenges in Europe and in the fight against terrorism.  Prior to NATO, she served for nearly five years as the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U.S. Department of State, advising the Secretary of State on arms control, nonproliferation and political-military affairs. 

Steven Pifer is an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation as well as a non-resident senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. He was a William J. Perry Fellow at the center from 2018-2022 and a fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin from January-May 2021. Pifer's research focuses on nuclear arms control, Ukraine, Russia, and European security. A retired Foreign Service officer, Pifer's more than 25 years with the State Department focused on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as arms control and security issues, and included service as the third US ambassador to Ukraine.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

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On August 9, 2020 citizens in the Republic of Belarus went to the polls to vote for their next president. The incumbent was Alexander Lukashenko, a 67-year-old military officer who has kept an iron grip on the presidency for the entire 26 years Bealrus has held elections. But the challenger was an unexpected, new face. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is a 38-year-old English teacher, mother and pro-democracy activist who stepped into a campaign following her husband's arrest and imprisonment in May 2020 for political dissension. In four short months, she galvanized the nation with a message of democracy, freedom and fair elections that reached across opposition factions and gained enough momentum to become a serious contender for the presidency.

On election day, projections estimated an initial win for Tsikhanouskaya at 60%. But when the country's Central Elections Commission announced the election results, Lukashenko carried 80% of the vote, and Tsikhanouskaya a mere 10%. Given the long history of election engineering in Belarus, the results were expected. But what happened next was not. Outraged by the fraud, Tsikhanouskaya's supporters poured into city centers in Brest and Minsk by the tens of thousands, instigating the largest public protests in the history of post-Soviet Belarus. Caught off-guard, the regime hit back with a ruthless wave of violence and political imprisonments, prompting the European Union, NATO and other countries to impose sanctions and condemn Lukashenko as an illegitimate leader.

While Tsikhanouskaya's presidential campaign ended last August, her role as a democratic leader in Eastern Europe has not. In the year since the election, she has traveled the globe to meet with lawmakers, policy experts and heads of state to speak out against the ongoing repression of Lukashenko's regime and advocate for support of Belarus by the international community. The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) was honored to host Tsikhanouskaya and her delegation at Stanford for a roundtable discussion on the challenges that lay ahead in preparing Belarus for a democratic transition. Director Michael McFaul hosted the discussion, which brought together scholars from across FSI, the Hoover Institute and the Belarusian expatriate community. The full recording is below.

Rather than holding a typical press conference, Tsikhanouskaya's visit at FSI gave members of the Belarusian delegation an opportunity to engage in back-and-forth dialogue with an interdisciplinary panel of experts on governance, history and policy. Tsikhanouskaya and her senior advisors shared their perspectives on the challenges they are facing to build and maintain pro-democracy efforts, while Stanford scholars offered insights from their extensive research and scholarship.

Presidents, Protests and Precedent in Belarus


As leader of the delegation, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya gave an overview of the brutality of Lukashenko's regime and the lawlessness that has enveloped the country. But she also reaffirmed the commitment of everyday Belarusians to defending their independence and continuing the work of building new systems to push back against the dictatorship, and encouraged the support of the international democratic community.

"Belarusians are doing their homework. But we also understand that we need the assistance and help of other democratic countries," said Tsikhanouskaya. "That support is vital, because our struggle relates not just to Belarusians, but to all countries who share these common values."

Speaking to the work that Belarusians have already undertaken, Franak Viačorka, a senior advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, described how citizens are creating new means of protesting and organizing. Though they learned some tactics from recent protests in Hong Kong and classic theories by political scientists like Gene Sharp, organizers in Belarus quickly realized that they needed to innovate in order to keep ahead of Lukashenko's crack-downs. Today the opposition is a tech-driven movement that spreads awareness and support quickly through digital spaces and underground channels while avoiding large in-person gatherings that attract government brutality.

By Tanya Bayeva's assessment, these methods of organizing have been effective in capturing widespread support amongst people. A member of the Belarusian diaspora, Bayeva described the sense of empowerment she felt in coming together in a common cause with like-minded people.

"By coming out like this, people have started realizing that it is up to us, the people, and our individual willpower to make a difference," said Bayeva. "We are realizing that the king has no clothes, and that working together we can forward the process of democratization."

But there is still plenty of work ahead. In order to facilitate a more peaceful future transition to a democratic system, there will need to be frameworks in place to bridge the divide between old systems and new. Valery Kavaleuski, the representative on foreign affairs in Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's delegation, is focusing extensively on these issues, such as reconciliation processes and plans for future investments between Belarus and the European Union.

"These are political moves that reinforce hope among Belarusians and tells that that they are not alone and that when the change comes, they will have friends by their side to overcome the challenges of the transition period," said Kavaleuski.

Advice from Stanford Scholars: Focus on Processes and People


Responding to the Belarusian delegation's questions and comments, the faculty from FSI and the broader Stanford community offered insights and considerations from a variety of perspectives and disciplines on 'next steps' for the pro-democracy movement.

Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at FSI and Mosbacher Director at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), cautioned against the impulse to immediately take down the state and bureaucratic systems of the existing regime. While dismantling the mechanisms from the old state may feel emotionally satisfying, examples from history such as post-Nazi Germany and post-invasion Iraq illustrate the crippling effect on efficiency, functionality and the ability of the new order to govern in a vacuum of bureaucratic expertise.

FSI's Deputy Director, Kathryn Stoner, gave similar advice in regard to drafting and implementing a new constitution and conventions.

"People care to a great degree [about a new constitution], but not to months and months of debate and politicians yelling at one another. People can't eat constitutions," said Stoner. "You have to demonstrate that your system is going to be better than what was. When things have not gone well in transitioning countries, it's been because people don't see concrete change. So have a constitutional convention, but make it fast."

Amr Hamzawy, a senior research scholar for the Middle East Initiative at the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, also pointed to the importance of engaging the public and building alliances within both the old and new political systems. Based on his observations of the failed Egyptian and Tunisian efforts at democratic transition, he cautioned against discussions of impunity, arguing that while politically and morally symbolic, this practice often backfires and alienates important factions of the state apparatus which are vital for the function and success of a new government.

Hamzawy similarly encouraged carefully blending nationalism and populism to keep divisions within the public sector in check. Imbuing such narratives with pro-democracy rhetoric, he believes, can create a powerful tool for unifying the population around the new government and emerging national identity.  

The advice from the Europe Center's director, Anna Grzymala-Busse, succinctly brought together many of the points made by the faculty panel: "No post-transitional government can achieve all the promises they've made right away," said Grzymala-Busse. "So make the transition about processes rather than specific outcomes, about ensuring the losers are heard along with the winners, and about making sure all people can participate."

Additional participants in the roundtable discussion not noted above include Hanna Liubakova, a journalist and non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, Dmytro Kushneruk, the Consul General of Ukraine in San Francisco, and Stanford scholars Larry Diamond, David Holloway, Norman Naimark, Erik Jensen, Kiyoteru Tsutsui and John Dunlop.

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Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discusses the future of democracy in Belarus with a roundtable of Stanford scholars.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Michael McFaul, Franak Viačorka, and Francis Fukuyama participate in a roundtable discussion on democracy in Belarus. | Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
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Democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her delegation joined an interdisciplinary panel of Stanford scholars and members of the Belarusian community to discuss the future of democracy in Belarus.

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