Abstract:

Russia has emerged as an exemplar of an innovative and experimental alternative approach to information manipulation and control. This differs significantly from the more-often discussed Chinese “Great Firewall” system and other approaches with an emphasis on systemic technical censorship. The Russian model relies on a mix of less overt, more plausibly deniable, legalistic, and often nontechnical mechanisms to manipulate online information flows, narratives, and framings to affect and shape public opinion without resort to universal censorship. The government uses surveillance, a panoply of vague laws, the prosecution or censorship of exemplars, proxy actors, and hard-totrack extralegal pressures, hacking and leaks, and a heavy emphasis on content production and manipulation to influence narratives and shape public opinion. This model for the domestic control of information not only fits with Russia’s own political system but also is likely to prove more resonant and easier to emulate across many other countries in which a systematic censorship approach is not technologically or politically feasible. The learning and experimentation involved in this type of domestic information manipulation also have direct applicability to the use of information operations in international political and military competition. The future of this model will likely depend on continuing innovation, not least on the leveraging of advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and big-data analysis. If successful, however, this might look very different from the future of information control in China— and have significantly different repercussions for democracies and the international system. 

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