Readers of the Bulletin might be surprised that I’m not gunning for an extension of the New START arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, but I am not. My reason is simple: Today’s US political reality mandates that the next arms control treaty has to be wholly owned by President Donald Trump if it is to be successful.

Only President Trump will have the power and influence to ensure that the treaty succeeds in gaining the advice and consent of the US Senate and is ratified. He has long been interested in getting an ultimate deal with Russia, and only he can work successfully with President Vladimir Putin to get what the United States needs out of an agreement. This assumes, of course, that the current impasse over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can be either set aside for the negotiations or overtaken by a successful peace process—which would be the best outcome for the Ukrainians and everyone else, including the Russians. And the clock is ticking with New START expiring in February.

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