Emerging Technologies and Strategic Stability

Emerging Technologies and Strategic Stability

Tuesday, December 1, 2026
12:00 PM - 1:30 PM
(Pacific)

William J. Perry Conference Room

About the event: Emerging technologies developed since the end of the Cold War—and their proliferation to new actors—call into question the prospects for strategic stability in the twenty-first century. Strategic stability exists when rivals are mutually deterred and lack any rational incentive to escalate to nuclear use during conflict. Yet emerging technologies—with their new knowledge and tools with the potential for enhancing military capabilities—are impacting stability in such ways that the assumptions of rationality and deterrence no longer hold. First, these emerging technologies may be able to achieve effects once reserved to nuclear weapons, creating incentives for preemption. Second, these technologies are proliferating horizontally across more states, complicating mutual deterrence. Third, such technologies affect the psychology of decision-makers during crises, undermining rationality. Just as these phenomena may undermine stability, however, adversaries may yet be able to use the very same technologies to restore the strategic balance, although how is not yet fully apparent. In this panel, Herb Lin, Rose McDermott, Jackie Schneider and Harold Trinkunas will discuss their recent contributions to a special issue of the Texas National Security Review on the subject of emerging technologies and strategic stability.