About the event: When the U.S.-Russia New START treaty expires on February 5, 2026, there will no longer be any guardrails preventing a global nuclear arms race. Yet the erosion of arms control is just one part of a broader trend of rising nuclear dangers. All nuclear-armed states are either poised to begin or are in the process of modernizing and expanding their arsenals. Risks of nuclear conflict are increasing in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia. Not surprisingly, interest in nuclear weapons is growing in many countries, primarily U.S. allies worried about threats from China, Russia, and North Korea and fearing the United States will abandon them. Between these geopolitical trends and advances in relevant technologies, proliferation risks are rising, with broad implications for U.S. and global security. How should the United States navigate the dangers of a more nuclearized world? Can it resurrect arms control with Russia and potentially involve China or other countries? How should it manage the potential for proliferation by some of its allies? And, as many countries stand poised to adopt or expand nuclear power, how should it balance proliferation risks and global commercial nuclear energy competition?   

About the speakers:
Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar is the tenth president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an institution created by Andrew Carnegie in 1910 to conduct independent research, support diplomacy, and advise policymakers on international cooperation, conflict, and governance.  A former justice of the Supreme Court of California, Cuéllar has served three U.S. presidents at the White House and in federal agencies and was the Stanley Morrison Professor at Stanford University, where he held appointments in law, political science, and international affairs and led the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He serves on the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board and the U.S. Department of State’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board, and chairs the board of the William & Flora Hewlett Foundation.

As director of Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute, he oversaw the university’s major research centers and educational programs focused on governance and development, international security, health policy, climate change and food security, and contemporary Asia and Europe.  Previously, he co-directed Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and led its Honors Program in International Security Studies. During nearly seven years on California’s highest court while continuing to teach at Stanford, he wrote opinions addressing separation of powers, policing and criminal justice, democracy, technology and privacy, international agreements, and climate and environmental policy among other issues, and led the court system’s operations to better meet the needs of millions of limited English speakers.

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Rose Gottemoeller is the William J. Perry Lecturer at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Research Fellow at the Hoover Institute.

Before joining Stanford Gottemoeller was the Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019, where she helped to drive forward NATO’s adaptation to new security challenges in Europe and in the fight against terrorism.  Prior to NATO, she served for nearly five years as the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U.S. Department of State, advising the Secretary of State on arms control, nonproliferation and political-military affairs. While Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance in 2009 and 2010, she was the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation.

Prior to her government service, she was a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with joint appointments to the Nonproliferation and Russia programs. She served as the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2006 to 2008, and is currently a nonresident fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program.

Scott D. Sagan is Co-Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, and the Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He also serves as Co-Chair of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Committee on International Security Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon.

Sagan is the author of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993); and, with co-author Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (W.W. Norton, 2012). He is the co-editor of Insider Threats (Cornell University Press, 2017) with Matthew Bunn; and co-editor of The Fragile Balance of Terror (Cornell University Press, 2022) with Vipin Narang. Sagan was also the guest editor of a two-volume special issue of Daedalus: Ethics, Technology, and War (Fall 2016) and The Changing Rules of War (Winter 2017).

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About the moderator: Toby Dalton is senior fellow and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Before joining Carnegie, he served in policy advisory positions at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration, as energy attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, Pakistan, and as a professional staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. His work focuses on nuclear energy, nuclear security, and international nuclear governance, with a focus on East Asia and South Asia. He is co-author with George Perkovich of Not War, Not Peace? (Oxford University Press) and has published articles and opinion pieces in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Survival, The Washington Quarterly, Dong-A Ilbo, and Dawn, among others. He was a Luce Scholar at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, South Korea. He received a PhD from The George Washington University, MA from the University of Washington, and BA from Occidental College.

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No filming or recording without express permission from speakers.