All CISAC News Commentary March 14, 2022

Tacit rules to avoid a NATO-Russia war

While the United States and NATO have sided squarely with Ukraine, the victim of an unprovoked invasion by Russia, US and NATO officials have also made clear their desire to avoid a direct military clash with Russia.
 Kharkiv after shelling on 15 March 2022 during Russian invasion of Ukraine. Emergency service of Ukraine reports damage of 3 five-story apartment buildings.
Kharkiv after shelling on 15 March 2022 during Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo credit: State Emergency Service of Ukraine

While the United States and NATO have sided squarely with Ukraine, the victim of an unprovoked invasion by Russia, US and NATO officials have also made clear their desire to avoid a direct military clash with Russia. The Kremlin, despite its blustering, also presumably wishes to avoid war with NATO, particularly at a time when some 70 percent of its ground force units are engaged in Ukraine.

A set of rules appears to be tacitly developing that should reduce the prospect of a NATO-Russia conflict, though risks remain where the rules and red lines may not be clear.

Read the rest at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists