Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) recently welcomed Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist David Sanger to discuss his latest book, The New Cold Wars, a deep dive into the evolving landscape of global tensions among the U.S., China, and Russia. Sanger, a White House correspondent for The New York Times, warned of escalating geopolitical conflicts and underscored the need for a reimagined U.S. approach in an increasingly multipolar world.

Changing Course in a Changing World

Sanger began by outlining The New Cold Wars, which probes the unexpected resurgence of superpower rivalry after years of Western assumptions about global integration. According to Sanger, American leaders in the early 2000s were overly confident that China and Russia would adopt Western ideals. “There was this prevailing optimism that China would democratize and Russia would align more closely with the West,” Sanger said. “But these assumptions didn’t hold up.” Instead, he argued, both nations have taken aggressive steps to assert themselves on the world stage.

Sanger recounted Russia’s 2007 Munich Security Conference speech, during which President Vladimir Putin sharply criticized U.S. foreign policy, and the 2014 annexation of Crimea as two pivotal shifts that signaled a more assertive Russian posture. Similarly, he highlighted China’s reaction to the 1991 Gulf War, a demonstration of U.S. military prowess that, instead of bringing China closer to Western ideals, led it to pursue its own technological and geopolitical ambitions.

Technology’s Role in Global Influence

One of the major themes of Sanger’s discussion was the role of technology as a tool of influence—and control. China, in particular, has used technology to extend its influence worldwide, with companies like Huawei exporting surveillance tools to authoritarian regimes. Sanger noted that early U.S. optimism about engaging China on technology may have inadvertently strengthened China’s capacity for digital surveillance, posing unique challenges to global security.

American corporations, particularly in the tech sector, were initially eager to do business with China, viewing it as an economic opportunity. This partnership, Sanger argued, led to deep dependencies on Chinese production and expertise that have become a point of concern for U.S. policymakers. He described how China’s control over technological production, including semiconductor manufacturing, has left the U.S. vulnerable—a vulnerability that the Biden administration’s $52 billion CHIPS and Science Act seeks to address.

A New Chapter with Russia

In discussing Russia, Sanger explained the country’s shift away from Western alignment. Putin’s Munich speech and the annexation of Crimea were key signals that Russia was charting its own course, with limited reaction from the international community. Sanger argued that global hesitance to respond to Russia’s red flags encouraged further aggression.

Under the Biden administration, however, the U.S. has taken a firmer stance, declassifying intelligence and providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry to counter Russian aggression. While Sanger praised these moves, he cautioned that Russian control over energy resources and regional conflicts remains a challenge.

Cyber Tools: The Modern Battlefield

Transitioning to the intersection of technology and power, Sanger pointed out that cyber tools, artificial intelligence, and surveillance systems are transforming the nature of conflict and diplomacy. “Technology is now as much a weapon as any military force,” he said, noting that both China and Russia wield digital tools to control domestic populations and extend influence abroad. Cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure have revealed weaknesses in American cybersecurity and raise concerns about the nation’s preparedness for future digital threats.

Sanger cited China’s advancements in facial recognition, AI, and semiconductor production as areas that pose distinct challenges to U.S. interests, particularly due to U.S. dependence on companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). To counter reliance on vulnerable Taiwan, the Biden administration aims to boost domestic semiconductor production, although Sanger warned that delays could hinder goals of reaching 20% U.S. production by 2030.

The China-Russia Alliance

Sanger also discussed the emerging partnership between China and Russia. Although the alliance is not without its complexities, Sanger said, it nonetheless presents significant challenges to the U.S. Both nations are united by a common objective to counter Western influence. He highlighted the potential for diplomatic leverage in areas where Chinese and Russian interests diverge, such as their differing approaches to North Korea.

Challenges Ahead for U.S. Foreign Policy

Sanger concluded his talk by outlining what he sees as essential steps for U.S. foreign policy in light of the rapidly changing international order. He stressed the importance of bolstering alliances and avoiding moves that could intensify conflicts with China or Russia. A nuanced approach, Sanger argued, would allow the U.S. to manage competition while keeping diplomatic channels open.

During a Q&A session, Sanger addressed audience questions about the implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on foreign policy. He suggested that election results could significantly affect U.S. leadership in NATO and its ongoing support for Ukraine, warning that shifts in these commitments could embolden both China and Russia.

Looking Forward

As Sanger wrapped up his discussion, he reiterated the need for the U.S. to keep pace with global technological advances and navigate an increasingly multipolar world. Understanding the motivations behind China and Russia’s actions, he emphasized, is crucial to formulating policies that reduce the risk of conflict.