The year is young, and yet the U.S. is already involved in a dizzying array of foreign and domestic developments, from capturing Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and threats of force against Iran, to the Trump administration’s critiques of European allies, and accusations of overreach by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stateside.

Simmering just below the surface is the U.S.-China relationship, which has been relatively quiet of late but could become confrontational, as the powers compete for dominance in technological advancement, trade, and influence.

On February 12, 2026, the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) presented Global Trends and Geopolitics in 2026: A Look Ahead, a discussion on the forces shaping the world. The panel was moderated by FSI’s new director, Colin Kahl.

At the start of 2026, Kahl assumed leadership of FSI from Michael McFaul, who had served as the institute’s director for eleven years. Kahl is deeply familiar with national security and geopolitics at the highest levels, having recently served as the U.S. Department of Defense’s under secretary of defense for policy, and as national security advisor to Vice President Joe Biden during the Obama Administration. 

The conversation featured leading FSI scholars Harold Trinkunas, deputy director and senior research scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC); Anna Grzymala-Busse, director of FSI's Europe Center; Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow of Global Democracy at FSI; and Or Rabinowitz, a visiting fellow at FSI’s new Jan Koum Israel Studies Program.

As assessed by the panel, the competition between the United States and China has significant global repercussions, as seen across the following key regions and issues.

Latin America and the Arrest of Maduro

At the start of the year, U.S. military forces captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, charging him with narcoterrorism. While Delcy Rodríguez, formerly the country’s vice president, is now acting president, questions persist as to who is  in charge of the northern coastal country.

The U.S. would like to reduce China’s influence on Latin America, but, observed Harold Trinkunas, China is an easy trade partner and helps Latin America with infrastructure by providing bank loans that are simpler to secure than those offered by the U.S..

The Trump administration’s desire to revive the Venezuelan oil sector has been met with skepticism, with Chevron the only major U.S. oil company currently operating there. Oil sales were a key financial resource for Maduro’s government, but the current government lacks access to the revenue, with sales now controlled by the U.S..

Colin Kahl summarized the Trump administration’s actions as “a strange combination of drug enforcement and imperial oil extraction.”

The Fragile Alliance Between the U.S. and Europe

Friction between the U.S. and Europe is higher than it has been in recent memory, with disagreements over global trade, President Donald Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland, and the Russia-Ukraine War.

According to Anna Grzymala-Busse, despite their status as a longtime ally, Europe feels the U.S. has unfairly been treating them like an enemy, while withholding criticism toward China over human rights abuses and security risks.

Europe is divided on how much it should rely on Chinese goods and technology. Some European countries, like the Netherlands, want to increase trade with China, while others, such as Germany, wish to scale back.

The U.S. has further obfuscated matters by playing European countries off of one another, criticizing some while heralding others. As a result, Trump is losing support in Europe, where Washington’s critiques are seen as “a violation of European sovereignty,” and have managed to unite the continent, said Grzymala-Busse.

“With the first Trump administration, there was a general feeling of, we can wait this out,” observed Grzymala-Busse. “With the second Trump administration, there's a feeling of, this is just what the United States is like.”

The Looming Threat of War in the Middle East

Or Rabinowitz pegs the likelihood of a U.S. attack on Iran in the coming six months at 60%, if the two countries can’t make a deal on restrictions around Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. It’s unclear if such a strike would actually topple the Iranian regime, or if it would merely be “a symbolic slap on the wrist,” said Rabinowitz.

President Trump’s decision making is difficult to predict, noted Rabinowitz: “Changing his mind is actually a very significant part of his political DNA.” Meanwhile, Iran is wary of agreeing to any deal that could be beneficial to Israel.

Often viewed as a strong ally of Iran, China is the number one buyer of Iranian oil. “But the problem is that in many aspects, it's the best friend that you don't want,” observed Rabinowitz, calling China “a fair weather friend.” China is primarily interested in stability because it benefits them as a trade partner when the region is calm.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states openly prioritize stability, de-escalation, and economic continuity. However, privately, Saudi officials have hinted that the Iranian regime could be emboldened if the U.S. does not attack, according to Rabinowitz.

Backsliding Democracy at Home and Abroad

There are grounds for both optimism and alarm in assessing the current global state of democracy, said Larry Diamond.

Developments in the U.S. such as the controversy over deployment of ICE forces in the streets of Minneapolis, and the Trump administration’s threats to withhold federal funding from universities, are, according to Diamond, “elements of creeping authoritarianism.”

U.S. democracy will face a big test in the upcoming midterm elections, one that Diamond thinks the country will pass. However, “if federal power is used to suppress or negate a free and fair election in the United States…I don't think you could call the United States an electoral democracy anymore.”

Outside of the U.S., Diamond predicts the future of democracy will be determined in Ukraine, as it enters its fifth year of war with Russia, and in Taiwan, where Chinese president Xi Jinping is considering the use of military force against Taiwan, potentially without substantial intervention from the U.S..

The Race to Unlock the Power of New Technologies

China is not dedicated to turning democracies into autocracies, even though it might welcome that, explained Colin Kahl. The country’s global focus is on trade, which is President Trump’s main interest when it comes to China as well.

Diamond deems the race between China and the U.S. to unlock the power of artificial intelligence, quantum, bioengineering, and fusion energy technologies as highly consequential.

If China pulls ahead in quantum and AI, Diamond warns, “This would be a disaster for the future of freedom in the world… there's nothing more important to the future of global democracy than the democracies collectively of the world winning this technological race.”

According to Kahl, this race will determine “whose technological backbone do most people on Earth use to access the information through which their entire lives are mediated?”

Just the Beginning

Every quarter the world will be quite different than the quarter before, noted Kahl. “It’s hard to believe we’re only six weeks into 2026,” he said. “It feels like we’ve had six years worth of foreign policy developments.”

The Global Trends and Geopolitics in 2026: A Look Ahead panel was the first in a new quarterly series of discussions hosted by FSI that will examine the state of the world. To join FSI at upcoming events focused on the latest developments in international affairs, register for invitations on the institute’s website.