Thinking about Nuclear and Cyber Conflict: Same Questions, Different Answers

Abstract: Senior policy makers often talk as though cyber conflict poses the same kind of existential threat as does nuclear conflict.  Sober analysis reveals the silliness of this claim, but nonetheless, an understanding of nuclear conflict can help to structure thinking about cyber conflict.  Specifically, I will present some preliminary work on the proposition that nuclear and cyber conflict are similar in that the same questions arise in each, but that the answers to these questions are for the most part entirely different.  I hope that feedback from this seminar will help me to refine this work if I’m on the right track (or abandon it if I’m not).

About the Speaker: Dr. Herb Lin is senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford University.  His research interests relate broadly to policy-related dimensions of cybersecurity and cyberspace, and he is particularly interested in and knowledgeable about the use of offensive operations in cyberspace, especially as instruments of national policy.  In addition to his positions at Stanford University, he is Chief Scientist, Emeritus for the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies, where he served from 1990 through 2014 as study director of major projects on public policy and information technology, and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar and Senior Fellow in Cybersecurity (not in residence) at the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies in the School for International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.  Prior to his NRC service, he was a professional staff member and staff scientist for the House Armed Services Committee (1986-1990), where his portfolio included defense policy and arms control issues. He received his doctorate in physics from MIT.