2021-22 CISAC HONORS PROGRAM PRESENTATIONS

Recording: https://youtu.be/aD-jKWFkkqw
 

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Deborah Jantz

1:30 PM - 2:00 PM

Title: Battlegrounds to Bipartisanship: The Effect of Military Experience on Bipartisanship in the U.S. Congress

Abstract: For years, the U.S. military has been the public’s most-trusted institution. Military service is also often considered a crucial part of an individual’s identity. It is used as a point of credibility for veterans’ published opinions and a major part of the platform on which they run for elected offices. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress, a less-trusted institution, has become increasingly polarized over the last few decades. Existing literature has found that military experience does impact mindsets on ideological issues such as defense budget and use of force, including those of veterans in Congress, but the literature often fails to distinguish between types and lengths of military service. This thesis considers the effect of military experience, including various differentiators of that service, on a propensity for bipartisanship in Congress. I find that military service does correlate with higher bipartisanship or less partisanship, but that length of military service and other differentiators do not have a significant effect. I posit, based on both quantitative analysis and perspectives of veteran Congress Members and their staff, that this increase in bipartisanship is due to self-selection rather than socialization. Those who enter the military and then Congress may be particularly patriotic, and they seek to serve their country rather than only their party through problem-solving that often necessitates bipartisanship. Rather than suggesting we should just elect more veterans, this finding highlights the importance of encouraging a strong national identity if we are to uphold a functional and flourishing democracy.

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Emma Smith

2:05 PM - 2:35 PM

Title: Too Big to Fail? Evaluating the Association between Large-Scale Irrigation Schemes and Civil Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa, in the Context of the Climate Crisis

Abstract: A “code red for humanity;” the “number one threat to mankind;” as lethal as “guns and bombs.” Climate change represents an existential threat to humanity. The coming decades will see a surge of funding for climate adaptation aid in response to this threat – led by US President Joe Biden’s pledge of $11 billion in climate aid annually by 2024. This expansion of funding for climate development interventions, in particular, suggests a need to evaluate how past infrastructure interventions have impacted communities, and lessons for the future. This thesis thus explores the relationship between large-scale irrigation projects in sub-Saharan Africa and communal violence. Recognizing the wide-ranging variation in use and effectiveness of irrigation schemes, it asks: To what extent does violence influence the location and effectiveness of large-scale irrigation projects? Essentially, is there a violence effect – does violence prior to or during the construction of projects influence projects influence their utility, and, conversely, in what circumstances do these projects amplify or reduce the risks of communal violence? Using a mixed methods approach, the paper does not find a strong relationship between violence and the relative success of irrigation projects. However, it finds that irrigation projects are more likely to be placed in locations with greater exposure to violence. The reason for this increased exposure to violence appears two-fold: first, there is an intentional decision to use irrigation projects as a mechanism to promote regional stability and socioeconomic development. This relationship is also, in part, unintentional, reflecting multilateral funding bodies’ historically limited efforts to mitigate risk. A case study of Nigeria is used to delve further into these findings, identifying several instances in which projects have exacerbated community grievances against the state –– and where violence has ensued. These findings suggest that stakeholders in the climate change, development, and peacebuilding spheres should prioritize mechanisms for greater environmental and social risk assessments; increase opportunities for community-based development and governance; and strive to better integrate conflict-sensitivity into climate adaptation interventions.

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Theo Velaise

2:40 PM - 3:10 PM

Title: From Genomic Sequencing to Cerebral-Based Weaponry: The New Frontier of the People’s Liberation Army’s Military Technology

Abstract: The People Republic of China’s 2020 5-Year Plan – the cornerstone for Chinese national defense posture and economic planning – highlights the strategic importance of biotechnology and genomic sequencing for the first time in the authoritarian state’s history. Yet there has been little awareness or response among Western policymakers and experts to the Chinese military’s rapidly evolving biotechnology programs. This thesis is the first study to comprehensively evaluate the scope and status of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) biotechnology capabilities, ranging from emerging biotechnologies to advanced tools already deployed from the Chinese arsenal. To understand the evolution of the PLA’s biotechnology programs and milestones, this thesis collected an original dataset of over 500 open-source Chinese language documents, ranging from Chinese Communist Party (CCP) white papers to Chinese military scientific journals and Chinese news publications. Through two case studies – an investigation of the PLA’s brain-computer interface capabilities and a study of China’s large-scale genomic sequencing programs – this thesis examines the PLA’s strategies for developing and deploying new biotechnologies at scale. This analysis concludes that late-stage partnerships between commercial Chinese biotechnology organizations and military research groups have been an effective avenue for the Chinese military to pursue rapid development of militarized biotechnology. Second, the CCP’s efforts to concentrate technological capabilities under centralized umbrella organizations have proven to be an efficient strategy for deployment. By more fully understanding the PLA’s biotechnology capabilities and deployment strategies, US policymakers and research institutions can work together to better respond to this growing national security risk.

Recording: https://youtu.be/zmTMGsQsB50

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Kai Kato

1:30 PM - 2:00 PM 

Title: Taking Data Hostage: Exploring the Feasibility of Using Ransomware for Interstate Coercion

Abstract: Ransomware, a type of malware that prevents targets from accessing their own data unless a ransom is paid, has become an irresistibly lucrative tool for cyber criminals. In recent years, high-profile ransomware attacks have successfully demanded hefty ransoms from organizations worldwide, with some attacks even targeting nationally critical infrastructure. Ransomware is highly effective for extracting money, but could this technology be used by other actors, such as states, to demand things other than money? This thesis seeks to answer whether and how ransomware can be used between states to directly coerce behavioral change. To answer this question, this thesis first presents a game-theoretical model of ransomware that offers a means of logically theorizing how ransomware against states might play out. The thesis then turns to case studies of two notable criminal ransomware incidents, examining them through the lens of theories of interstate coercion. This study finds that ransomware offers some upsides as a coercive weapon between states, namely its ability to improve the attack's credibility, but ransomware is still limited by the need to assure the target that compliance will allow them to recover their data. Although it is difficult to conclusively predict the future of ransomware based on available evidence, these limitations suggest that ransomware will be bounded to narrow use cases. Nonetheless, by examining this hypothetical cyber tactic, this thesis offers some precautionary insights and reinforces the importance of strengthening the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure.

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Gabriella Conforti

2:05 PM - 2:35 PM

Title: The “Hezbollah Model”: Understanding the Conditions that Facilitate the Emergence of Hybrid Actors in Elections in Iraq and Lebanon

Abstract: Why do some armed non-state actors develop political wings and enter state elections, hence becoming hybrid actors? This thesis explores the conditions that allow for these actors to move into formal politics, a transition made most notably by Hezbollah in the 1992 Lebanese general elections. Three non-mutually exclusive conditions were considered as catalysts for entering elections: (1) power vacuums in the state, particularly due to periods of civil war and extensive conflict; (2) foreign intervention (financial or military); (3) “greed” or economic opportunity motivates armed non-state actors to enter elections. A qualitative review of contemporary Iraqi and Lebanese history, with case studies on hybrid actors within these countries, indicates that all three conditions are present throughout the transition but differ in terms of dominance during the process. The Hezbollah model has important implications for regional leaders and U.S. policymakers who are interested in preventing hybrid actors from integrating with state governments, and in slowing the spread of Iranian influence in the Middle East, as Iran has had the most success in cultivating hybrid actors in the region. Specifically, understanding the conditions that precipitate the transition opens the door to preventive measures in other countries in which armed non-state actors flourish but have yet to enter politics. 

Recording: https://youtu.be/t-H8g0sRjYM

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Alexandra Koch

1:00 PM - 1:30 PM 

Title: The Political Reconstruction of National Interests: Why the United States Negotiated and Signed but did not Ratify the 1977 Additional Protocols to the Geneva Conventions

Abstract: The United States negotiated and signed the 1977 Additional Protocols to the Geneva Conventions designed to significantly improve the protection of civilians during times of war, but later chose not to ratify the treaty. Until now, most explanations for this puzzle have focused on the role of external pressures, rather than domestic forces, to explain this outcome. This thesis analyzes over 7,600 pages of the official negotiating record, declassified Department of State and Department of Defense reports during and following the negotiations, as well as interviews with key personnel in the Carter and Reagan administrations, to assess the relationship between US national interests and US foreign policy positions in the construction of the 1977 Additional Protocols. The historical record reveals that the US had explicit national interests in the negotiations that drove negotiators’ approach, strategy, and ultimate success. The US delegation actively sought provisions that were militarily and politically acceptable to the US and signed onto an agreement that aligned with national interests and primed the US for ratification. However, the ultimate decision to not submit the Protocol for Senate ratification revealed an innate shift in interpretation of the final text across the Carter and Reagan administrations. This thesis finds that core US national security interests which underpinned the final text of the 1977 treaty were no longer interpreted as such by a new administration under President Reagan. Such analysis reveals the political construction and re-interpretation of fundamental national interests. These findings pose serious concerns for the continuity of US global leadership and the credibility of US commitments as perceived by other countries.

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William Howlett

1:35 PM - 2:05 PM

Title: Balancing Act: US Financial Diplomacy towards China’s Current Account Surplus, 2009-2013

Abstract: The 2008 global financial crisis, the worst since the Great Depression, was viewed by the United States government as partially a consequence of China’s undervalued renminbi and export-reliant economic model. Despite intensive American engagement, these Chinese policy choices bred a current account surplus and ballooning global imbalances. While regulatory missteps most directly spawned the crisis, imbalances were seen as inflating the bubble. After the crisis, US policymakers prioritized addressing China’s surplus via financial diplomacy. This thesis analyzes how and why US policymakers engaged with China, and to what degree this diplomacy was effective. It builds a detailed diplomatic history of the 2009-2013 period, coinciding with the first term of the Obama Administration and main period of post-crisis diplomacy. This history is derived from speeches, communiques, and other official communications from the bilateral Strategic & Economic Dialogues and multilateral G20 summits, as well as other public Treasury Department statements, Chinese government documents, and media reports. The official history is supplemented with interviews with key US policymakers. Based on this data, I draw three main conclusions. First, US diplomats were sensitive to China’s internal politics. By building on the arguments of Chinese groups aligned with US aims, negotiators leveraged China’s ‘two-level game.’ Additionally, US officials kept many elements of diplomacy private to ensure China’s leaders could save face by claiming reform was based on self-interest, not external pressure. Second, the US used the G20 to legitimize and broaden the rebalancing agenda while building multilateral pressure on China. Third, while substantive reform arguments were most important, US negotiators used bilateral concessions as leverage, while also pursuing China-favorable reforms at the IMF to build trust. These bargaining chips were strengthened by the threat of Congressional protectionism. Overall, my thesis suggests that Chinese interests, not American pressure, drove most key reforms. However, strategic US engagement played an important role in facilitating change within China, providing a model for future financial diplomacy.

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Samantha Thompson

2:10 PM - 2:40 PM

Title: Discomfort with Disinformation: Assessing U.S. Aversion to Sustained Counter Disinformation Efforts    

Abstract: A series of crises during the 2010s brought disinformation and propaganda to the forefront of foreign policy, ranging from jihadist propaganda to state-sponsored disinformation campaigns interfering with the 2016 presidential election. While scholars understandably began to question the effect 21st century social media would have on an age-old practice in international affairs, the literature does not address the political will of the United States government to engage in these “information wars.” Since World War I, U.S. counter disinformation organizations have undergone an unending cycle in which they are built during times of crisis, and after a short duration, they are dismantled. While government institutions are conventionally thought to be notoriously ever-lasting, this thesis examines why counter disinformation organizations (CDO) are an exception and what are the underlying forces contributing to their short life spans. Drawing on presidential speeches and strategic documents, academic and journalistic reporting, internal memos, and interviews of key bureaucratic actors, I test four hypotheses that affect CDO’s tenure on a series of case studies: the legal mechanisms through which the CDO was created, the sense of urgency that propelled policymakers to create the organization in the first place, executive and congressional policymakers’ investment in the counter disinformation mission, and bureaucratic tension with peer and host organizations. My results indicate a disinclination for strategic communication and information work exists within the national security apparatus that requires either a crisis with informational elements or high-level executive support to overcome. These findings illuminate institutional habits within the U.S. national security bureaucracy that will help determine what the government’s role should be in future information conflicts as the country moves towards a “whole-of-society” approach to combating disinformation and propaganda in a digital age.

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Katharine Leede

2:45 PM - 3:15 PM

Title: Spies in the Public Eye: Non-government Nuclear Sleuths, Government Intelligence Agencies, and their Differences    

Abstract: The advent of the internet and technological advancements in remote sensing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning have generated an explosion of open-source information. As the quantity of public data has grown, a new community of non-government open-source intelligence (NG OSINT) analysts has emerged, exploiting public information to provide insights on the most guarded of programs: the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Coined “nuclear sleuths,” the nuclear NG OSINT community democratizes secrets through analysis, redefining the divide between public knowledge and government intelligence. Despite garnering significant media attention, the nuclear sleuth community has not been comprehensively studied. Scholars have compared nuclear sleuth communities to government intelligence agencies, but few studies have analyzed the extent or causes of these differences. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to determine how and why the nuclear NG OSINT community is different from (or similar to) government intelligence agencies.  Utilizing a novel community assessment and analysis approach, the thesis systematically identifies and tracks the expertise, methods, and technologies leveraged by each community. The analysis is subsequently buttressed through interviews with intelligence practitioners to test perceptions towards both communities. The results indicate that the NG OSINT community and government intelligence agencies maintain distinct barriers to entry, collaboration habits, technological capabilities, and motivations for research. Nevertheless, the two communities interact with one another frequently on projects. Comparative analysis of non-government and government intelligence communities provides crucial understanding and preparation for the future of 21st century intelligence.

Recording: https://youtu.be/4B5OZyxyKv8

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Cole Griffiths

1:30 PM - 2:00 PM 

Title: Talk is Cheap: Human Rights, Rhetoric, and Realities Behind the US International Military Education and Training Program

Abstract: The US International Military Education and Training (IMET) Program plays a small but mighty role in fostering security cooperation with foreign military partners. IMET funding has been justified on the grounds of promoting human rights and democratic norms among foreign officer corps. IMET's track record, however, is mixed. Does the US really attempt to promote democracy through the IMET program? What relationship exists between official democracy promotion rhetoric and actual IMET aid? To answer this question, a mixed methods approach is deployed. An original sentiment analysis of over 4,000 US Human Rights Reports is combined with publicly available foreign aid data to reveal several key findings. US rhetoric of democracy promotion tends to call out autocrats and praise democracies. IMET aid goes primarily to middling autocracies or near-democracies. IMET aid and positive rhetorical praise are negatively correlated. These findings suggest a pragmatic liberal internationalism may undergird IMET aid distribution. 

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Hannah Kohatsu

2:05 PM - 2:35 PM

Title: Assessing Red Lines in the US-China-Taiwan Trilateral Relationship

Abstract: The idea of “red lines” has become a favorite catch-all term to discuss coercion, grey area tactics, and escalation. Particularly in the case of the US-China relationship over Taiwan, policymakers and scholars use red lines as a shorthand to conceptualize crisis thresholds, a point where ambiguity ends, and the stakes are highest. But there is limited consensus on the definition of red lines, and even less consensus on where red lines are between the US and China. This thesis creates a theoretical framework for understanding red lines and applies to it to the US-China-Taiwan case to explore how the US and China treat red lines in practice, and why some red lines fail where others succeed. Drawing on a set of case studies of Taiwan-centered red lines, I analyze how their integrity has evolved, contextualizing violations and enforcement through a typology. I assess red lines based on four main components: a situational threshold, demand, threat, and justification, and suggest that the strength of a red line is highly dependent on having all four components. Particularly in an era of grey area conflict between the US and China, understanding how to draw red lines most effectively, and which red lines are de jure versus de facto, is essential for preventing miscommunication and unwanted escalation.

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Olivia Morello

2:40 PM - 3:10 PM

Title: National Security and Academic Freedom: How American Universities Respond to Great Power Competition

Abstract: During eras of great power competition, how do American universities navigate between addressing national security concerns and preserving their stated principles of academic freedom? To answer this question, I examine two different time periods when intense rivalry between the US and other superpower countries drove the American government to scrutinize universities: from 1947 to 1957, which encapsulates the Second Red Scare, and from 2013 to present day, which covers US-China great power competition. I draw upon government documents, university records, interviews, and secondary source books to inform this comparative case study. I find that across both time periods, the types of concerns held by these groups remain fairly consistent. Those prioritizing national security concerns fear that foreign rivals are influencing material taught in American university classrooms and stealing valuable research conducted at these institutions. The government primarily takes this position, with some university administrators and faculty in agreement. On the other side, those prioritizing academic freedom worry that increasing government regulation to combat national security concerns will lead to unjust persecution of faculty and will restrict the underlying mission of colleges to educate and generate new knowledge. Universities must balance these concerns at all levels, from complying with export control laws governing research transfer to either defending or firing professors accused of espionage. This thesis hopes to inspire greater communication on balancing security with academic openness between policymakers, university administrators, and university faculty so all sides understand one another’s concerns.