Recent Scholarly Publications

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Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch

September 2006

One of the serious risks associated with the strategic nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States is that an accidental launch might result from a false alarm or from misinterpreting...

Japan's Security Strategy in the Post-9/11 World: Embracing a New Realpolitik

February 2006

In this book, Daniel Kliman argues that the years following September 11, 2001, have marked a turning point in Japan's defense strategy.

If It's Broke, Don't Fix It

July 2005

When Norwegian and U.S.

Airborne Boost-Phase Ballistic Missile Defense

December 2004

Boost-phase ballistic missile defense is alluring because rocket boosters are easy to detect and track, they are relatively vulnerable due to the large axial loads on a missile under powered flight...

Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States

April 2004

George W. Bush and his administration came into office with a self-consciously realist orientation in foreign policy.

Speaking as scientists: computer professionals in the star wars debate

December 2003

AbstractIn his “Star Wars” speech, President Ronald Reagan asked the “scientific community” to develop missile defense technologies that would render the massive Soviet nuclear arsenal “impotent...

The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed

December 2003

In The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, professors Waltz and Sagan resume their well-known dialogue concerning nuclear proliferation and the threat of nuclear war.

History and the Current Status of the Russian Early-Warning System

December 2002

This article presents an overview of the history of development and the current status of the Soviet and Russian early-warning system, which was built to provide the Soviet strategic forces with...

Keeping National Missile Defense in Perspective

January 2002

The United States is in the midst of its third major debate on nationwide ballistic missile defense-the first culminating in the 1972 ABM Treaty and the second sparked by President Reagan's "Star...

Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces

December 2001

This encyclopedic book edited by Pavel Podvig provides comprehensive data about Soviet and Russian strategic weapons, payloads, and delivery systems and on the nuclear complex that supports them....

For Russia, Little Loss, Little Gain

November 2001

Since the attacks on September 11, the Bush administration has seemed as determined as ever to move ahead with a national missile defense system, although it would have done nothing to prevent the...

Simple Model for Calculating Ballistic Missile Defense Effectiveness, A

December 2000

This paper develops a probabilistic model that can be used to determine the technical performance required for a defense to meet specific political/military objectives.

Ballistic-Missile Defence and Strategic Stability

May 2000

Should the US deploy ballistic-missile defences? The arguments for and against are becoming increasingly polarised.

Amending the ABM Treaty

April 2000

In deploying NMD, the challenge facing the US is to devise a package of incentives that will secure Russian agreement to amend the ABM Treaty.

How Much Ballistic Missile Defense Is Enough?

October 1998

This paper examines how well future U.S. national and theater missile defense systems will have to perform to meet reasonable defense objectives as a function of the level of the threat.

Simple Model for Calculating Ballistic Missile Defense Effectiveness, A

August 1998

This paper develops a probabilistic model that can be used to determine the number of ballistic missile defense interceptors required to meet a specific defense objective, given the technical...

Evolution of Russia's Strategic Nuclear Force, The

July 1998

The majority of Russia's current strategic nuclear force will become obsolete shortly after the turn of the century.

Airborne Laser: Shooting Down What's Going Up, The

September 1997

Future regional conflicts will almost certainly involve politically less stable nations or other regional actors using theater ballistic missiles armed with either nuclear, biological, or chemical...

Deterrence and Defense: Opportunities for a Future European Defense Policy

March 1997

The renewed American debate over ballistic missile defenses (BMD) echoes loudly in NATO, in Europe, and in France.

Strategic Stability to the Year 2000

July 1996

This volume contains the proceedings of a conference held at the Center for International Security and Arms Control in May 1996.

Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Regional Conflict, The

April 1994

With the ending of the Cold War, regional conflicts have come increasingly to the fore.  U.S. foreign policy goals in such areas continue to involve a mix of U.S.

China's Ballistic Missile Programs: Technologies, Strategies, Goals

October 1992

Continued sales of ballistic missiles to countries in the Middle East and South Asia have intensified international interest in China's advanced weapons.

Strategic Stability in a Rapidly Changing World

December 1991

A conference was held at Stanford in May 1992 on possible cooperation between the United States and Russia on early warning of ballistic missile attack.

Submarine Warfare in the Arctic: Option or Illusion?

May 1988

The U.S. Navy's New Maritime Strategy addresses the navy's role in a nonnuclear U.S.-Soviet conflict in Europe.