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Thomas Fingar
Books

Office of the Director of National Intelligence: From Pariah and Piñata to Managing Partner

Thomas Fingar
Georgetown University Press, 2017 June 12, 2017

This is a chapter in the second edition of The National Security Enterprise, a book edited by Roger Z. George and Harvey Rishikof that provides practitioners' insights into the operation, missions, and organizational cultures of the principal national security agencies and other institutions that shape the U.S. national security decision-making process.

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Books

Uneasy Partnerships: China’s Engagement with Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform

Thomas Fingar
Stanford University Press, 2017 April 11, 2017

Uneasy Partnerships presents the analysis and insights of practitioners and scholars who have shaped and examined China's interactions with key Northeast Asian partners. Using the same empirical approach employed in the companion volume, The New Great Game (Stanford University Press, 2016), this new text analyzes the perceptions, priorities, and policies of China and its partners to explain why dyadic relationships evolved as they have during China's "rise."

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Commentary

A Silk Road for the Twenty-First Century?

Thomas Fingar
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2016 November 1, 2016

In an analysis piece for CSIS, Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow Thomas Fingar examines the geopolitical, economic and developmental considerations of Xi Jinping's call for China and the states of Central Asia to build a modern-day "Silk Road."

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Books

The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform

Thomas Fingar
Stanford University Press, 2016 March 9, 2016
China's rise has elicited envy, admiration, and fear among its neighbors. Although much has been written about this, previous coverage portrays events as determined almost entirely by Beijing.
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Commentary

动荡世界中的安全挑战:更少敌人、更多挑战和焦虑

Thomas Fingar
Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking University, 2015 August 17, 2015

A version of this paper, "Security Challenges in a Turbulent World: Fewer Enemies, More Challenges, and Greater Anxiety," delivered at the International Areas Studies Symposium at the University of Okalhoma, on Feb. 26, 2015, is also available in English by clicking here.

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Commentary

The United States and China: Same Bed, Different Dreams, Shared Destiny

Thomas Fingar
2015 April 20, 2015

In the third annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture on U.S.-East Asia Relations, Thomas Fingar, Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford, former deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and former chairman of the National Intelligence Council, discusses U.S. policy toward China. The speech titled "The United States and China: Same Bed, Different Dreams, Shared Destiny" was delivered at The Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., on April 20, 2015. Links to English and Chinese versions are listed below.

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Commentary

Security Challenges in a Turbulent World: Fewer Enemies, More Challenges, and Greater Anxiety

Thomas Fingar, Thomas Fingar
Annual IAS Symposium, 2015 February 26, 2015

Speech excerpt:

The conference is designed to illustrate the scope and variety of the security challenges we face and I commend both the organizers and the presenters. I have learned much and am confident you have as well. Others have addressed specific challenges; my assignment is to provide a big picture perspective that will provide context and a framework for understanding the nature of the world we live in and the types of challenges we face.

Toward that end, I will organize my remarks around three interrelated questions:

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Journal Articles

China's Rise, Japan's Quest, and South Korea-US Co-operation

Thomas Fingar
Global Asia, 2014 October 16, 2014

Perceptions of security risks in Northeast Asia are increasingly being shaped by the rise of China and Japan's more recent efforts to become a more "normal" nation. The momentum behind both developments is being felt acutely in the relationship between the United States and South Korea. While many argue that the stage is being set for an inevitable conflict, Thomas Fingar, the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, argues that what is happening in China and Japan provides an opportunity for greater multilateral cooperation.

 


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Commentary

The World Is Counting on the U.S. and China

Banning Garrett, Thomas Fingar
US News, 2013 September 18, 2013

Banning Garrett and Thomas Fingar write in U.S. News & World Report that the China and the United States must cooperate to tackle major global challenges in the near future. These challenges cannot be resolved by individual nations on their own. An unprecedented National Intelligence Council report, prepared under the direction of the China Institute of International Studies and Peking University's School of International Studies, shows how important the relationship is.

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Commentary

A Chance to Defuse North Korea

Gi-Wook Shin, Thomas Fingar, David Straub
The New York Times, 2013 June 5, 2013

On Friday, June 7, President Obama will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a series of talks to address major issues between the two countries. The talks offer a rare, informal opportunity to discuss heightened concerns about North Korea and a growing U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia.

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Journal Articles

Ties that Bind: Strategic Stability in the U.S.–China Relationship

Thomas Fingar, Fan Jishe
The Washington Quarterly, 2013 January 1, 2013

Abstract

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Journal Articles

Intelligence as a Service Industry

Thomas Fingar
The American Interest, 2012 April 1, 2012

First paragraph of the article:

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Journal Articles

Global Implications of China's Challenges – Part I

Thomas Fingar
YaleGlobal Online, 2012 January 16, 2012

For the past two decades China has been a poster child of successful globalization, integrating with the world and in the process lifting millions of citizens out of poverty. But China’s integration into the world economy and global trends drive and constrain Beijing’s ability to manage growing social, economic and political challenges. 

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Journal Articles

Intelligence and Grand Strategy

Thomas Fingar
Orbis, 2012 January 1, 2012

Abstract:


Elegant strategies can be constructed without reference to intelligence but persuading policymakers to implement them without knowing what intelligence might have to say about their likely efficacy and unintended consequences would be exceedingly difficult. Intelligence-derived information and insights should not dictate the goals of grand strategy, but they should inform decisions about what to do, how to do it, and what to look for in order to assess how well or badly the strategy is working.

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Books

Global Trends 2025: Implications for South Korea and the US-ROK Alliance

Thomas Fingar
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, 2011 December 31, 2011
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Books

Alternate Trajectories of the Roles and Influence of China and the United States in Northeast Asia and the Implications for Future Power Configurations

Thomas Fingar, L. Gordon Flake
Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, in One Step Back? Reassessing an Ideal Security State for Asia 2025, 2011 December 31, 2011

"Whether China and the United States maintain basically cooperative or fundamentally antagonistic relations obviously has very different implications for the region and for the prospects and policies of others in—and beyond—NEA," states Thomas Fingar in the chapter "Alternate Trajectories of the Roles and Influence of China and the United States in Northeast Asia and the Implications for Future Power Configurations" (One Step Back? Reassessing an Ideal Security State for Asia 2025, 2011).

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Books

Analysis in the U.S. Intelligence Community: Missions, Masters, and Methods

Thomas Fingar
National Research Council of the National Academies, 2011 December 31, 2011
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Books

Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security

Thomas Fingar
Stanford University Press, 2011 July 20, 2011

Description from Stanford University Press:

The US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. A substantial portion of what we spend—over $50 billion a year—goes to the U.S. intelligence community.

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Commentary

How China views US nuclear policy

Thomas Fingar
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2011 May 20, 2011

Article Highlights

  • Although Chinese academics and military officers praised some aspects of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, they continue to view US nuclear policy with suspicion.
  • The factors responsible for negative Chinese reactions include bad timing, concerns about China's deterrent capability, a lack of consultation, and cultural differences.
  • Improved dialogue between the US and China on security issues can help reduce the potential for misperception and mistrust.
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Journal Articles

Worrying About Washington: China's Views on the US Nuclear Posture

Thomas Fingar
The Nonproliferation Review, 2011 March 1, 2011
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Books

Office of the Director of National Intelligence: Promising Start Despite Ambiguity, Ambivalence, and Animosity

Thomas Fingar, Roger Z. George, Harvey Rishikof
Georgetown University Press in "The National Security Enterprise: Navigating the Labyrinth", 2011 January 1, 2011

Recent breakdowns in American national security have exposed the weaknesses of the nation's vast overlapping security and foreign policy bureaucracy and the often dysfunctional interagency process. In the literature of national security studies, however, surprisingly little attention is given to the specific dynamics or underlying organizational cultures that often drive the bureaucratic politics of U.S. security policy.

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Working Papers

Global Trends and Security in the Muslim World: Dilemmas for U.S. and Regional Policy

Stephen R. Grand, Tamara Cofman Wittes, Thomas Fingar, Jamal al Suwaidi
The Brookings Institution, 2009 February 16, 2009

In this U.S.-Islamic World Forum discussion paper, Stephen Grand, Tamara Wittes, Thomas Fingar and Jamal al Suwaidi investigate new and non-traditional security challenges and how they are likely to affect U.S.-Muslim world relations.

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