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Journal Articles

Socio-technical multi-criteria evaluation of long-term spent nuclear fuel management strategies: A framework and method

François Diaz-Maurin, Jerold Yu, Rodney C. Ewing
Science of The Total Environment , 2021
In the absence of a federal geologic repository or consolidated, interim storage in the United States, commercial spent fuel will remain stranded at some 75 sites across the country. Currently, these include 18 “orphaned sites” where spent fuel has been left at decommissioned reactor sites.
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Books

Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order

Kathryn Stoner
2021
An assessment of Russia that suggests that we should look beyond traditional means of power to understand its strength and capacity to disrupt international politics.
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Journal Articles

The Birth of Nuclear Eternity

Benoît Pelopidas
Oxford Handbooks Online , 2021
This chapter reconnects modes of futures-making with the requirements of democracy by focusing on the naturalization of nuclear weapons and their removal from the realm of democratic choice at a particular point in time.
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Journal Articles

Teach What You Preach: A Comprehensive Guide to the Policy Memo as a Methods Teaching Tool

Oriana Skylar Mastro
Journal of Political Science Education , 2021
The policy memo is particularly suited for introducing basic methodological concepts to upper-division undergraduate students of political science, argues Oriana Skylar Mastro.
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Books

Negotiating the New START Treaty

Rose Gottemoeller
2021
Rose Gottemoeller, the US chief negotiator of the New START treaty—and the first woman to lead a major nuclear arms negotiation—delivers in this book an invaluable insider’s account of the negotiations between the US and Russian delegations in Geneva in 2009 and 2010.
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Journal Articles

Unfit for purpose: reassessing the development and deployment of French nuclear weapons (1956–1974)

Benoît Pelopidas, Sébastien Philippe
Cold War History , 2020
This article presents the first reassessment of the strategic rationality and credibility of French nuclear weapons policy before 1974.
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Journal Articles

European nuclear weapons? Zombie debates and nuclear realities

Benoît Pelopidas, Kjølv Egeland
European Security , 2020
In February 2020, French president Emmanuel Macron invited all interested European states to a “strategic dialogue” on the supposed contribution of France’s nuclear arsenal to European collective security.
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Journal Articles

The PLA’s Evolving Role in China’s South China Sea Strategy

Oriana Skylar Mastro, Oriana Skylar Mastro
China Leadership Monitor , 2020

During the past eight months of the global COVID pandemic, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been active in promoting China’s claims in the South China Sea.  This essay evaluates PLA statements, military exercises and operations, and deployment of relevant platforms and weapons in the South China Sea during this period. I leverage Chinese-language sources in addition to my own operational knowledge from over a decade of military experience to provide greater context for these activities.

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Journal Articles

Does the Noncombatant Immunity Norm Have Stopping Power? A Debate

Scott D. Sagan, Scott D. Sagan, Benjamin A. Valentino, Charli Carpenter, Alexander H. Montgomery
International Security , 2020

Our 2015 survey experiment—reported in the 2017 International Security article “Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran”—asked a representative sample of Americans to choose between continuing a ground invasion of Iran that would kill an estimated 20,000 U.S. soldiers or launching a nuclear attack on an Iranian city that would kill an estimated 100,000 civilians.1 Fifty-six percent of the respondents preferred the nuclear strike.

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Journal Articles

Rethinking Nuclear Arms Control

Rose Gottemoeller, Rose Gottemoeller
The Washington Quarterly , 2020

Where is nuclear arms control—negotiated restraints on the deadliest weapons of mass destruction—headed? This 50-year tool of US national security policy is currently under attack. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last remaining nuclear arms agreement with the Russian Federation, will go out of force in February 2021 unless it is extended for an additional five years as the treaty permits. At this moment, nothing is on the horizon to replace it, though the Trump administration has promised a new and more extensive agreement that includes China as well as Russia.

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Commentary

Al Qaeda’s Leader Is Old, Bumbling—and a Terrorist Mastermind

Asfandyar Mir, Asfandyar Mir, Colin P. Clarke
Foreign Policy , 2020

Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. In part that’s because the United States hasn’t cared enough to focus attention on him. Aside from massive financial overtures for intelligence on his whereabouts—there’s currently a $25 million bounty offered for his head, higher than the reward for any other terrorist in the world—the U.S. government has been relatively blasé about al Qaeda since Zawahiri took over in 2011.

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Journal Articles

Al Qaeda’s Franchise Reboot

Asfandyar Mir, Asfandyar Mir, Colin P. Clarke
Foreign Affairs , 2020

Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaeda still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. But very few experts on Salafi-jihadi movements would dismiss the group outright. So when U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confidently declared in a March interview on Fox & Friends that “al Qaeda is a shadow of its former self,” we were startled and concerned.

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Commentary

Can China’s Military Win the Tech War?

Anja Manuel, Anja Manuel, Kathleen Hicks
2020

As the Chinese government has set out to harness the growing strength of the Chinese technology sector to bolster its military, policymakers in the United States have reacted with mounting alarm. U.S.

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Journal Articles

Particulate Plutonium Released from the Fukushima Daiichi Meltdowns

Rodney C. Ewing, Rodney C. Ewing
Science of The Total Environment , 2020

A new study reveals particles that were released from nuclear plants damaged in the devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami contained small amounts of radioactive plutonium.

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Commentary

Why didn’t the U.S. rebuke Russia for its Taliban bounty deal? Four things to know.

Asfandyar Mir, Asfandyar Mir
Washington Post , 2020

President Trump is in the middle of another controversy involving Russia. A New York Times article on June 26 revealed Trump was informed in March that Russia offered bounties to the Taliban to kill U.S.

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Commentary

Donald Trump Could Lose the Election by Authorizing a New Nuclear Weapons Test

Benoît Pelopidas, Stephen Herzog, Fabrício Fialho
2020

Polls in the United States and nine allied countries in Europe and Asia show that public support for a nuclear test is very low. If the Trump administration conducts a test, then it shouldn’t expect backing from Americans or its closest U.S. partners.

Read more at The National Interest

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Commentary

How the West could win a technological ‘shadow war’ with China

Anja Manuel, Anja Manuel
2020

A new shadow war is underway within the International Telecommunication Union, one of the obscure organizations that sets global technical standards.

International standard-setting is a morass of positive intentions and poor execution. When the process works well, it selects the best technologies based on merit and, for example, allows people to use their personal cellphone numbers anywhere on Earth. When the system fails, we end up with different electrical outlets in each country and scramble for adapters.

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Commentary

How to use the next stimulus to counter China

Anja Manuel, Anja Manuel, Stephen J. Hadley
2020

“Build back better” was the mantra New Orleans adopted after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. It should be our country’s motto as we work to recover from the economic and public health crises caused by covid-19.

Read more at The Washington Post

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Working Papers

A Research Agenda for Cyber Risk and Cyber Insurance

Gregory Falco, Martin Eling, Virginia Miller, Lawrence A. Gordon, Shaun Shuxun Wang, Joan Schmit, Russell Thomas, Mauro Elvedi, Thomas Maillart, Emy Donavan, Simon Dejung, Matthias Weber, Eric Durand, Franklin Nutter, Uzi Scheffer, Gil Arazi, Gilbert Ohana, Herbert Lin
The 2019 Workshop on the Economics of Information Security (WEIS) , 2020

A Research Agenda for Cyber Risk and Cyber Insurance

By: Gregory Falco, Stanford University

Martin Eling, University of St. Gallen

Danielle Jablanski, Stanford University

Virginia Miller, Stanford University

Lawrence A. Gordon, University of Maryland

Shaun Shuxun Wang, Nanyang Technological University

Joan Schmit, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Russell Thomas, RMS and George Mason University

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Commentary

The U.S. may be close to a peace deal in Afghanistan. Here are 3 big takeaways.

Asfandyar Mir, Asfandyar Mir
The Washington Post , 2020

Last Friday, the U.S. government announced a two-step peace deal with the insurgent Afghan Taliban. In the first step, the United States and the Afghan Taliban will substantially “reduce violence” against each other across Afghanistan for seven days.

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Journal Articles

Cyber Risk Research Impeded by Disciplinary Barriers

Gregory Falco, Martin Eling, Danielle Jablanski, Matthias Weber, Virginia Miller, Lawrence A. Gordon, Shaun Shuxun Wang, Joan Schmit, Russell Thomas, Mauro Elvedi, Thomas Maillart, Emy Donavan, Simon Dejung, Eric Durand, Franklin Nutter, Uzi Scheffer, Gil Arazi, Gilbert Ohana, Herbert Lin
Science , 2019
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Commentary

The west needs a positive response to China’s technology challenge

Anja Manuel, Anja Manuel
2019

Silicon Valley is belatedly waking up to the fact that China systematically extracts the most advanced technology from the west, using both legal and nefarious means.

Read more at The Financial Times

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Books

Behavioral Economics and Nuclear Weapons

Jeffrey Knopf, Jeffrey Knopf, Anne I. Harrington
Athens : The University of Georgia Press, [2019] , 2019

Recent discoveries in psychology and neuroscience have improved our understanding of why our decision making processes fail to match standard social science assumptions about rationality.

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