Trajectories of Terrorism: Attack Patterns of Foreign Groups That Have Targeted The United States, 1970-2004
Trajectories of Terrorism: Attack Patterns of Foreign Groups That Have Targeted The United States, 1970-2004
Research Summary
Although researchers began to assemble open-source terrorism
event databases in the late 1960s, until recently most of these databases
excluded domestic attacks. This exclusion is particularly misleading for the
United States because, although the United States is often perceived to be the
central target of transnational terrorism, the domestic attacks of foreign
groups targeting the United States are often ignored. We began this article
with 53 foreign terrorist groups that have been identified by U.S. State
Department and other government sources as posing a special threat to the
United States. Using newly available data from the Global Terrorism Database
composed of both domestic and transnational terrorist attacks, we examined
16,916 attacks attributed to these groups between 1970 and 2004. We found that
just 3% of attacks by these designated anti-U.S. groups were actually directed
at the United States. Moreover, 99% of attacks targeting the United States did
not occur on U.S. soil but were aimed at U.S. targets in other countries (e.g.,
embassies or multilateral corporations). We also found that more than 90% of
the non-U.S. attacks were domestic (i.e., nationals from one country attacking
targets of the same nationality in the same country). We used group-based
trajectory analysis to examine the different developmental trajectories of U.S.
target and non-U.S. target terrorist strikes and concluded that four
trajectories best capture attack patterns for both. These trajectories outline
three terrorist waves-which occurred in the 1970s, 1980s, and the early 21st century-as well as a trajectory that does not
exhibit wave-like characteristics but instead is characterized by irregular and
infrequent attacks.
Policy Implications
Our results underscore the importance of proximity for
terrorist targeting. Terrorists, like ordinary criminals, are likely to choose
targets close to their operational base. However, when attacks occur further
from the terrorists' home bases, they are more deadly. Approximately half of
the terrorist organizations studied here exhibited wave-like boom and bust
attack trajectories. Given that most attacks by groups identified as threats by
the U.S. government are in fact aimed at non-U.S. domestic targets, the United
States should pursue efforts to strengthen the capacity of local governments to
combat terrorism and to communicate to them our understanding that groups that
are anti-United States are also a threat to local governments. In framing
counterterrorism policies, the United States should put threats into
perspective by acknowledging that we are the exception and local governments
are the rule. Terrorism is not just about us.